NFL Futures Value Play

[Deol]

Last year I took 2 teams in each conference and parlayed them to win their respective conference before the regular season and made some serious coin off it (+4300). If you don't think SEA or DEN will win it all then this is most definitely the best time to make a value play.

Last year: Post #22 (http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...l-futures.html)

Logic:
Basically SEA will be the #1 seed and NO will be the #2 seed. SF will prolly end up being the #6 seed and CAR will end up being the #5 seed. Assuming SF wins their first game (in PHI or DET/CHI) they will have to play SEA and NO will play whoever in the dome. So logically NO at home should win and be in the NFC championship against either SEA or SF so my teams for the NFC are:
SF or NO.

For the AFC it's actually pretty simple. I'm taking the best two teams besides DEN so that is NE and CIN (they will be division winners so one of them should be in the AFC championship game played in DEN. I like either teams chances in the cold against Manning. Teams for AFC are: NE and CIN.

NE-SF (+2300)
NE-NO (+2100)
CIN-SF (+6000)
CIN-NO (+5500)

** This is a value play, it's a long-shot but even throwing as little as $25 on each nets decent returns.

[dnwjdl]

CIN???

[Deol]

CIN???

DEN is -120. This is a value play. Who would you take instead INDY?

[dnwjdl]

Personally, I think there are only four teams that have a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. DEN, NE, SEA, and SF. But, I guess anything can happen. Btw, today I noticed that BAL is +5,000. lol.

[Deol]

Personally, I think there are only four teams that have a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. DEN, NE, SEA, and SF. But, I guess anything can happen. Btw, today I noticed that BAL is +5,000. lol.

Last year the #1 seeds were ATL and DEN if I remember correctly, look what happened. You're basically betting SF to beat SEA and NO to beat whoever they play at home for the NFC and getting tremendous value.

[suicidekings]

This scenario has Carolina likely coming to New Orleans in the second round of the playoffs, and I definitely don't like the Saints in that matchup, homefield advantage or not. And then, if they win, you would need the Saints to go to Seattle and pull off the upset there, which I also don't like at all.

It's not "value" to bet something at big odds and hope for a miracle, IMO.

[nvrlose37]

Well since you picked that clusterfuck of Ravens-SF last year I guess you deserve credit. 5dimes offers Super Bowl matchups as well so it's your parlay method combined from the start.

I don't see Cincy doing work this year though. And beating Seattle at home will be hell.

[Deol]

This scenario has Carolina likely coming to New Orleans in the second round of the playoffs, and I definitely don't like the Saints in that matchup, homefield advantage or not. And then, if they win, you would need the Saints to go to Seattle and pull off the upset there, which I also don't like at all.

It's not "value" to bet something at big odds and hope for a miracle, IMO.

I'm making the assumption SF will be SEA therefore they will either travel to NO or CAR most likely. I took NO over CAR because NO is at home. I think it's good value because the odds of it happening are a lot better than the odds given by sportsbooks IMO. I took CIN because I think they are the 3rd best team in the AFC but am obviously hoping NE beats DEN.

[suicidekings]

I'm making the assumption SF will be SEA therefore they will either travel to NO or CAR most likely. I took NO over CAR because NO is at home. I think it's good value because the odds of it happening are a lot better than the odds given by sportsbooks IMO. I took CIN because I think they are the 3rd best team in the AFC but am obviously hoping NE beats DEN.

I understand not including SEA/DEN because of price. I just don't agree with choosing the Saints over the Panthers. I do like the Bengals being included though.

[Deol]

I understand not including SEA/DEN because of price. I just don't agree with choosing the Saints over the Panthers. I do like the Bengals being included though.

If you think CAR wins this weekend make the play now because they the same value as NO to win NFC. If you think they lose this weekend then make this play early next week. It prolly won't happen but it doesn't cost much and the returns are nice!

[Deol]

NE-SF (+2300)
NE-NO (+2100)
CIN-SF (+6000)
CIN-NO (+5500)

Didn't really turn out the way I thought but have a shot at still hitting this. Back to Back years would be so FKN nice!

[indio]

You haven't really gained any equity. Your original bet (combining all 4 bets) was +723 and that's about what you get on a ML parlay with NE and SF right now.

[dnwjdl]

Personally, I think there are only four teams that have a realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. DEN, NE, SEA, and SF. But, I guess anything can happen. Btw, today I noticed that BAL is +5,000. lol.

[bystrow]

nice call bro

[dnwjdl]

nice call bro

Thx, man!