TNF Saints @ Falcons with some facts and trends

[Riceboi]

Just sharing some information on this game. If you think trends are useless that's fine; everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS team played as a Road team - Playing in dome surface - Scored 22 - 28 POINTS FOR in their last game; they are 15-2 ATS and 14-3 SU in their next game.


When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS team played as Road team as a Favorite - During the month of November - Before a non division game; they are 13-2 ATS and 13-2 SU.


The Saints as road favorites have a 72% win rate, and cover ATS at a 59% rate.


The Falcons as home dogs have a 33% win rate and cover ATS at a 43% rate.


There are no current trends for the Atlanta Falcons that I can find. It's just a really off year for them; they are 2-8 for goodness sake.


Since 2008, the Saints have only lost back to back road games as favs once (30 games total; 3% rate); they lost their last road game as a road fav to the Jets. In fact, since 2000 the Saints have only lost back to back road games as favs twice (46 games total; 4% rate)


Also the Saints as a road team have lost their last 2 games (Pats and Jets), it's uncommon for them to lose 3 straight road games. Since 2000, there has only been 5 occurrences (out of 115 games; 4% rate) where the Saints have lost 3 straight road games.


Last 10 Saints @ Falcons games, when falcons are an underdog they are 3-6-1 ATS and 1-9 SU.


The last time the Falcons (11-1 record at the time) at home beat the Saints was on Nov 29th 2012. This was when the Saints (5-7 record) were withoutSean Payton; Brees had zero TD passes and threw 5 INTs that game; Brees finished 28 of 50 for 341 yards but had a rating of just 37.6, the third-lowest off his career. I doubt this repeats this time. Saints had 33% red zone efficiency, and the falcons had 66% red zone efficiency; I predict these figures will flip flop this time.


Having said all this, since 1983 (about 30 games)the Falcons have only received 10 pts as a home dog vs Saints only one time in 2009 where they did cover (only loss by 3).

Everyone can make their own assumptions form this information. for me personally I will probably be playing Saints in some type of teaser or Saints ML in some type of small open parlay.

Good Luck and remember NOTHING is a lock. Manage your money!

[Noleafclover]

Not sure why I bother responding because I hate trends of all kinds - if they happen to tell you something useful, its information that could also be gleaned from stats and watching football, 95% of the time.

That said, this is one of the worst types of trends:

Since 2008, the Saints have only lost back to back road games as favs once (30 games total; 3% rate); they lost their last road game as a road fav to the Jets. In fact, since 2000 the Saints have only lost back to back road games as favs twice (46 games total; 4% rate).

Look up gambler's fallacy.

[Joey Blaze]

Look up gambler's fallacy.

you never know what interesting things you may find on a forum.. thanks for the info it really shines some light on the way I have made picks (incorrectly) in the past

[firekillex]

not really into trends either, but great info

[wizard1183]

Those trends are for games notably not on prime time. Granted saints should win here but it'll be hard to cover 9-10 pts. How's those stats look on Thursday nights?

[firekillex]

realistically saints win by 14+
they want to prove to the world that theyre a superbowl contender and falcons have basically given up by now
to many injuries on there roster, i dont see this being a close game

[rockhardfister]

realistically saints win by 14+
they want to prove to the world that theyre a superbowl contender and falcons have basically given up by now
to many injuries on there roster, i dont see this being a close game

They are a SB contender and they know it. They certainly dont need to stomp a mud hole in the Falcons to prove it. This game is on NFL Network so most of the world will not be watching. 4x teams, 4 weeks in a row whipped the dog shit out of the Falcons. A Saints beat down is expected. Short week - division rival - sandwiched between SF and SEA. ATL might roll over against some teams but not the Saints. Still undecided but leaning Falcons in a surprise cover. Mike Smith said today that he is moving to a youth movement on the team which could be a good thing or bad thing. Who knows but it does mean that he will be showing the Saints something that they are not prepared for. Laugh now, but I could see Antone Smith having a big game tomorrow. I equate him to a Shane Vareen type back with that kind of speed and catching ability.

[Riceboi]

Not sure why I bother responding because I hate trends of all kinds - if they happen to tell you something useful, its information that could also be gleaned from stats and watching football, 95% of the time.

That said, this is one of the worst types of trends:

Since 2008, the Saints have only lost back to back road games as favs once (30 games total; 3% rate); they lost their last road game as a road fav to the Jets. In fact, since 2000 the Saints have only lost back to back road games as favs twice (46 games total; 4% rate).

Look up gambler's fallacy.

As I said, nothing is a lock. Thanks for the input.

[Riceboi]

Good Luck with all your bets everyone!