Overs up to 56% on the season (74-57)

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Overs up to 56% on the season (74-57)
    You blindly betting them yet?

    Books refusing to adjust and getting crushed accordingly. Last night was a perfect example -- a 42/43 for a game with Andrew Luck?

    Can't fix stupid. Ride the wave I guess.

  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #2
    FTR, I don't get a bet on the over tonight. At all. Yet most seem to like it.

    Comment
    • Tommy Karate
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-12-13
      • 13445

      #3
      Originally posted by No coincidences
      You blindly betting them yet?

      Books refusing to adjust and getting crushed accordingly. Last night was a perfect example -- a 42/43 for a game with Andrew Luck?

      Can't fix stupid. Ride the wave I guess.

      the total opened at 47.5............that was an accurate # for a TV game between these 2 teams.

      under kept getting hammered despite it being a NTV over. almost landed on that 42 for the magical middle.
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        Originally posted by Tommy Karate
        the total opened at 47.5............that was an accurate # for a TV game between these 2 teams.

        under kept getting hammered despite it being a NTV over. almost landed on that 42 for the magical middle.
        Who would be hammering the under in that matchup (especially to that extent)?
        Comment
        • Tommy Karate
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-12-13
          • 13445

          #5
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          Who would be hammering the under in that matchup (especially to that extent)?
          i each week always lean under colts for the very reason that i feel the public will look for overs with luck, when in actuality they run a conservative style offense. and the texans hadnt scored more then 20 pts since week 2. its not like we were looking at saints/broncos...

          but the extent of the movement was unusual. maybe one of those syndicates released a GOY on under?
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            Originally posted by Tommy Karate
            i each week always lean under colts for the very reason that i feel the public will look for overs with luck, when in actuality they run a conservative style offense. and the texans hadnt scored more then 20 pts since week 2. its not like we were looking at saints/broncos...

            but the extent of the movement was unusual. maybe one of those syndicates released a GOY on under?
            Honestly, TK, these days, if you see a line move that much (side or total) -- hammer the other side. It seems to be hitting at an extraordinary rate.
            Comment
            • Tommy Karate
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-12-13
              • 13445

              #7
              Originally posted by No coincidences
              Honestly, TK, these days, if you see a line move that much (side or total) -- hammer the other side. It seems to be hitting at an extraordinary rate.
              i agree...prob is i was already playing the under even w/o the RLM......then i was waiting for the buy back that never happened. i should have laid off with such a bad #, but im not that good....
              Comment
              • albinoshark
                SBR High Roller
                • 10-16-13
                • 124

                #8
                Guys, at 50.5 now would you lean to the UNDER?
                Comment
                • oldshoebox72
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 05-09-13
                  • 104

                  #9
                  OVER-UNDER is 1-9 in the last 10 times these teams played each other.
                  One of my local guy give me 10.5, 51.5. I'm riding UNDER for 5x
                  Comment
                  • Tommy Karate
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-12-13
                    • 13445

                    #10
                    this game would have around 65-75 points right now with rodgers in the game.....that would beat any total the books put out for an adjustment.

                    lotto ticket time for under backers...
                    Comment
                    • frostno98
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-11-07
                      • 9769

                      #11
                      Books got it right. They just can't cap punt returns and turnovers, those the main reason games go over. A zero turnover game is virtually guaranteed to go under.
                      Comment
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