I been doing this for a long time and star player/players out angle seems to hit at very high rate for one game. I remember clearly last year when spurs sat all their players against the heat and easily covered and heat did same against against atl line went atl way and heat covered with all bench warmers in atlanta. Nfl this year Houston comes to mind when they only lost by one at KC. Clev beating cinci with Hoyer even though Weeden is far from a star but texhnically Hoyer was 3rd string on depth chart, viking beating pitt with casell, bills I believe covering against cinci with Lewis at qb I could be wrong on that one but it was only 3 pt ot win. There are few games that went as predicted and few guys i listed are obviously not stars but it's what I could remember recently. All I know is that games where star player or players are missing for that first game there is always huge public over reaction and underdog or team that has that player missing covers at very high rate.
At the end of the day how good had bradford played this year? He is 20th in qbr with 240 yards per game which is Ok but nothing spectacular. Also not to mention st louis and clemmons had 10+ days to prepare for this game instead of 6. It being a home game with extra time to prepare and +14 pt spread I thing st louis either back doors this or stays within the line entire game but either way covers. Bottom line is rams have talent on offense and defense that with extra time to prepare can keep this game closer than 14 at home. Look at minn yesterday who are outside of AP are far less talented kept more potent off with the best qb in nfl within 14. Outside of Jax and unless playing Denver no one should be a 14 pt home dog.
At the end of the day how good had bradford played this year? He is 20th in qbr with 240 yards per game which is Ok but nothing spectacular. Also not to mention st louis and clemmons had 10+ days to prepare for this game instead of 6. It being a home game with extra time to prepare and +14 pt spread I thing st louis either back doors this or stays within the line entire game but either way covers. Bottom line is rams have talent on offense and defense that with extra time to prepare can keep this game closer than 14 at home. Look at minn yesterday who are outside of AP are far less talented kept more potent off with the best qb in nfl within 14. Outside of Jax and unless playing Denver no one should be a 14 pt home dog.
