NFL Picks Over/Under for this Week... I will be betting...

Bucky buck · 10-23-13, 11:27 AM

found it. i am going to start watching this, as i am very intrigued. i generally only half ass bet the NFL small units just more so for the hell of it, i may jump on the tail wagon here just for fun. so, if NB is no bet, what do you generally do on the "N" games?

Fredy Bruschi · 10-23-13, 11:49 AM

I'm taking Den/Wash over 57.5 and KC/CLE under 40 this week.

BOL

steel26 · 10-23-13, 12:40 PM

Yeah, I was looking for it last. week. I got it now. so lets get paid.

EdV38 · 10-23-13, 05:10 PM

For real, your system predicts SF/Jax to be at 66, basically where Den/Was is? Or is the system only meant to be accurate enough to get good O/U bets with no credence to how far over or under?

bobbydrake · 10-23-13, 05:28 PM

usma1992's 2013 college o/u prediction model thread

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/2636520-nfl-system-slaying-hopefully-college-will-follow-soon-here-picks.html

Time is Money · 10-23-13, 11:01 PM

What kind of things are you taking into account in this system? I would love to see some sort of breakdown for how you're getting these totals.

Definitely gonna track you this weekend. BOL.

Mako-SBR · 10-24-13, 12:05 AM

Wow, too many overs versus the mean so far this season...and the unders are barely unders with the lone exception of the TNF game.

Hope it plays out well, board needs a good over/under system.

Sarunas · 10-24-13, 01:08 AM

nows the system make select on denver over!

good luck

usma1992 · 10-24-13, 12:17 PM

System selected Denver over the last couple of weeks. It did not in the beginning. I made some changes to accommodate the huge amount of yardage Peyton was putting up. I agree 100% that the system is projecting too many overs, but I think that maybe Vegas's fault not mine. Not sure. Right now, I checked 1.36 Over Bets are place relative to Under Bets.... I find this to be significant. I didn't bet heavy last week for a reason. I will continue to develop it and work on it to make it better. I think the NFL Over bet is one of the toughest bets to make because over time as a whole is irrelevant. But maybe the game is changing. I noticed that the data shown in 2008 had more under bets than over, but since than it has moved toward more overs than unders. Enjoy Dave

tien2262 · 10-24-13, 12:36 PM

Thanks for posting bro

How did u do last week on O/U??
Do u have a thread last week so I can see results and tail u.

Thanks

punkbhstl · 10-24-13, 12:40 PM

I believe the system was 12-1 last week.

tien2262 · 10-24-13, 12:47 PM

Really? Damn

usma1992 · 10-24-13, 12:52 PM

Last week the only game I lost was...

Green Bay... Pittsburgh line changed too much and was a throw out. I don't bet over bets with a new QB and would have thrown out the Minnesota game. I personally did not be the KC game either because I was too scared of Case Keenum. But the rule of thumb from here on out is under bets are ok with new QB... Overs are not and should not be bet. Perfect example is this week with St. Louis..."N" means neutral..."NB" means the I over rode the bet because the something dramatically changed. Enjoy Dave

Mako-SBR · 10-24-13, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Green Bay... Pittsburgh line changed too much and was a throw out. I don't bet over bets with a new QB and would have thrown out the Minnesota game. I personally did not be the KC game either because I was too scared of Case Keenum. But the rule of thumb from here on out is under bets are ok with new QB... Overs are not and should not be bet. Perfect example is this week with St. Louis..."N" means neutral..."NB" means the I over rode the bet because the something dramatically changed. Enjoy Dave

Agree with this thinking. Tough to search NFL records for just that one nugget in previous games, but I would bet if we evaluated the past hundred or instances of it happening that replacement QBs starting their first or second game of the year would tilt the score total for the entire game by at least 5% in favor of the under...and likely more.

tennesseety · 10-24-13, 01:19 PM

So, is it safe to assume that you would place 8 bets of equal value this week? Or do you ever add a unit or more to those with greater differential? Thanks!

usma1992 · 10-24-13, 01:45 PM

I bet the same on each game... if I can hit 60%... i'm ecstatic...But I feel right this second NFL is a little weighted toward the over and I can't figure out if the game has changed and Vegas hasn't adapted or my system is over inflated... PLEASE be careful...

C$thebookkiller · 10-24-13, 04:02 PM

Riding the Panthers tonight

The Panthers are 3-3 this would be a huge win to go 4-3 after starting 0-2. The panthers have only given up 17 points in the first half taking them the 1st quarter - 1/2 the half -3 1/2 and for the game -6 1/2 . Good Luck lets go Cam

Mako-SBR · 10-25-13, 03:32 AM

Card is weighted on the overs and yet we still find a way to go down on one of the unders tonight, haha.

Looking forward to seeing how the weekend plays out, tired of trying to handicap totals. Would love to just hand it off to a system and concentrate on the sides. GL

2daBank · 10-25-13, 04:08 AM

Originally posted by usma1992

I bet the same on each game... if I can hit 60%... i'm ecstatic...But I feel right this second NFL is a little weighted toward the over and I can't figure out if the game has changed and Vegas hasn't adapted or my system is over inflated... PLEASE be careful...

vegas has certainly adjusted from few years ago almost every total i look at i can say 5-8 years ago that would have been 4 points lower, that said not sure that the adjustment was enough cause these days i play more overs than unders and that something i never thought id say a decade ago..far as overall total i think it actually pretty close to 50/50 this yr last i looked..

Sarunas · 10-25-13, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Fredy Bruschi

I'm taking Den/Wash over 57.5 and KC/CLE under 40 this week.

BOL

have the logicals. good luck

usma1992 · 10-27-13, 07:04 PM

Looks like 6-2... can't be sure... enjoy Dave

Mako-SBR · 10-27-13, 07:33 PM

Killing it, bet the whole card at a unit each and it's just been amazing to see them roll in with win after win after win. Even the ridiculous Denver over came in thanks to Kirk Cousins...

Great job Dave, your model seems to be on point for sure.

Bucky buck · 10-27-13, 08:49 PM

Yes. 6-2. I also tailed 100% and bet all 8. Loved every minute of it, especially since I rarely play the totals, so it was pretty fun. Already ready for next week! Great job Dave, keep up the good work! Thanks for the heads up brother

KyTn · 10-27-13, 09:40 PM

I already PMd him with my congratulations and appreciation. I tailed today. 6-1. Played Bank's teaser KC-.5 and under 45.5. Teased Den over 52 and ATL over 39. Played the consensus Ariz and Oak. All nickels. Best Sunday I have had in a long while.

Mako-SBR · 10-27-13, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by KyTn

I already PMd him with my congratulations and appreciation. I tailed today. 6-1. Played Bank's teaser KC-.5 and under 45.5. Teased Den over 52 and ATL over 39. Played the consensus Ariz and Oak. All nickels. Best Sunday I have had in a long while.

So great. With Dave's totals picks added in I went 14-6, easily the best weekend I've had this season.

steel26 · 10-28-13, 10:41 AM

Usma.. whatever you doing keep it up.. I went 5-5 for NFL this week and If I had just stayed the course my college would have hit too. For the record I went 8-13 just parly to many.. I need to start slow and build a bank.. Does your system transfer over to College and NBA?

747planes · 10-28-13, 11:14 AM

What is the YTD record in the played bets in NFL and CFB so far with your system? thanks.

Mako-SBR · 10-28-13, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by 747planes

What is the YTD record in the played bets in NFL and CFB so far with your system? thanks.

The CFB test is new, this may be the first week for it, but the NFL system I believe was 21-12 coming into this week. If that's the case it's now 27-14, 66%.

bobbydrake · 10-28-13, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by 747planes

What is the YTD record in the played bets in NFL and CFB so far with your system? thanks.

usma1992 O/U CFB Week 9
Record: 14-13

CAROLINA	TAMPA BAY	6	40.0	28.5	U
SAN FRANCISCO	JACKSONVILLE	16.5	40.5	66.2	O
DALLAS	DETROIT	-3	51.0	70.8	O
NY GIANTS	PHILADELPHIA	-6	52.5	46.5	U
CLEVELAND	KANSAS CITY	-7.5	39.5	41.6	N
BUFFALO	NEW ORLEANS	-12	49.0	52.9	O
MIAMI	NEW ENGLAND	-7	45.0	47.6	N
NY JETS	CINCINNATI	-6.5	41.0	45.5	O
PITTSBURGH	OAKLAND	1.5	40.5	38.0	N
WASHINGTON	DENVER	-13	58.0	65.8	O
ATLANTA	ARIZONA	-2.5	44.5	58.4	O
GREEN BAY	MINNESOTA	10	46.5	45.8	N
SEATTLE	ST LOUIS	11	42.0	52.9	NB
#N/A	#N/A	0	0.0	#N/A	####
#N/A	#N/A	0	0.0	#N/A	####
#N/A	#N/A	0	0.0	#N/A	####