Would you hedge?

[Mocknroll]

Ok, so I know most of the comments will be "why take a game if you're only going to hedge out of it". I used to prescribe to the same theory.

I play a lot of parlays as well as straight picks. I usually parlay a combination of my straight picks and others I wasn't confident enough to play for a standard unit. I far-too-often lose parlays on the last play. I feel like I have the 'last leg parlay curse', and I now add a 'dummy' last play to my parlays with the intention of leaving myself with a hedge option. I will usually play my last pick as a short home ML favorite with a delay between that and the 2nd last game (so I can get to my book and get a hedge on).

Yep, you usually take picks in a parlay because you think they're going to win, but I am seriously cursed by this theory, as I am sure many who had Atlanta ML at home against the Jets a few weeks back would feel.

Here's my parlay.
Auburn @ A&M over 71.5
Iowa @ Ohio State over 54
Was @ Az State over 67
Iowa State @ Baylor over 76
FSU @ Clemson over 64
WSU @ Oregon over 72.5
Oregon St @ Cal under 71.5
Kansas City Chiefs ML

$50 to win $6028

Would you hedge on Texans ML? I took the Chiefs because they are, in my opinion, the strongest home fave with value, especially with Case Keenum likely to start for the Texans.

I have looked at middle and straight-hedge options, and I am thinking of playing $1000 on Texans +200.

Anyone have any opinions on this?

If your input is going to be 'let it ride, I am 100% hedging something here to guarantee profit from $50. I feel I've already used up all my luck on this one with Baylor and Clemson overs hitting.

Thanks.

[NavsPicks]

Put $2000 on texans +7 buy the point . Push/win both rather then pissing money away profit of 4k-8k rather then 4k Unless my maths off its late

[Mocknroll]

Put $2000 on texans +7 buy the point . Push/win both rather then pissing money away profit of 4k-8k rather then 4k Unless my maths off its late

Thought about the middle.
My book has +6 and I could only buy either +6.5 or +7.5 for about -143.

Also, if I play for 2k the middle would leave me at 4k (Chiefs cover 7), 8k (Chiefs win 1-7) or 2k (Texans win).

still undecided at this point.

[NavsPicks]

Depends if that's a large chunk of change for u. If it's life changing at this point id hedge like a mother fker .

[NavsPicks]

If u cash out 4 figs weekly like some people here do then let it roll. I do see hou beating KC but that's my opinion . KC hasn't been tested yet

[MexicanStallion]

I actually always go with a hedge unless it's a ML parlay or small overall win. When it's a bigger pot, I would rather just take the guaranteed cash. I also believe the Chiefs should win easy enough tomorrow, but you never know. Any week an upset can happen, so my advice is to hedge and win some money.

[Noleafclover]

Hedge to win 50, that way if you lose, you at least avoided hedging as much as possible and know you did the right thing long term.

[Mocknroll]

Thought about the middle, but didn't like the possibility of there being only a 2k payout, so I have opted to go for the clean, down the middle hedge. I've spent a total of $2050 to guarantee profit of either $3750 if the Texans win or $4028 if the Chiefs win.

Sure if the Chiefs win I may have 'blown' $2k, but I'm locking in what I can. I already feel lucky enough with the Baylor and Clemson back door overs.

Thanks for the advice all.

BOL with whatever you guys are on!

[JT OZ]

Always a smart move to guarantee profit regardless of what anyone says but hopefully the Chiefs get you the bigger win.

[Mocknroll]

Always a smart move to guarantee profit regardless of what anyone says but hopefully the Chiefs get you the bigger win.

Thanks mate. I'm assuming you're Australian? Or I'm just getting the wrong impression from your username?

[AceKingHigh]

Great parlay, good job my friend!

[Mocknroll]

Thanks AK.

[Mocknroll]

Put $2000 on texans +7 buy the point . Push/win both rather then pissing money away profit of 4k-8k rather then 4k Unless my maths off its late

Shoulda, coulda, woulda. Haha. Nice call.

Was very tempted to go for the middle. Didn't like the juice in buying up to a full TD and didn't think the window was large enough.

Still happy to cash what I am considering the parlay.

Thanks for the input!