Theory in playing totals. Any merit in it?

[Mocknroll]

My theory is you probably shouldn't play a total unless you think the total covers by a TD whether that be over or under. Totals are fickle and the 'key numbers' are no way near as important as with playing sides.

My local allows alternate totals markets, where you can effectively sell points up or down by 6.

If you sell the total up by 6 you get around +195 (would be more for a smaller total). Let's say $100 is your unit and this past weekend you took bears lions over 54.5 and denver philly over 62.5 and then chargers cowboys over 53.5 and let's just say texans seahawks over 47.5 (I wouldn't play it, but for the sake of my argument). You would have gone 2-2 and been up $190 across all 4 plays. Would be down $16 if you go 2-2 on standard totals. You really only need to go 1-2 to be down just the juice ($300 wagered $295 return).

I liked bears lions, denver philly and Chargers Cowboys overs this weekend. By selling totals up I would have hit the first 2 and missed the chargers cowboys alternate over and gone 2-1 for a profit of $295. You need to go 3-0 at standard totals to make profit of $276. You make more money going 2-1 at higher totals than 3-0 on standard and stand to win much more if 3-0 at higher totals hit.

Does anyone else play totals similarly to this?

[Sarunas]

in the end is amazements! not is complex but simple! looks the stars!

theys tell da vinci make declare: 'Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication'

is all. remembers! for all the times!

[Mocknroll]

in the end is amazements! not is complex but simple! looks the stars!

theys tell da vinci make declare: 'Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication'

is all. remembers! for all the times!

That's what I was thinking.

[Mocknroll]

Have just done some research and I'm quite surprised by the results.

All results below show you whether the total covered by 6.5 or more. So if an over is set at 50, and the end score is 57 or more, this counts as covering. Under set at 50, and the score lands on 43 or less, this counts as covering etc.*

OVERS
WEEK 1: 7-1
WEEK 2: 6-2
WEEK 3: 5-2
WEEK 4: 5-4

UNDERS
WEEK 1: 7-1
WEEK 2: 7-1
WEEK 3: 7-3
WEEK 4: 3-3

Basically, totals lines that books are dishing out are not even close. If an over hits, it goes well over and the same with unders. We’re not seeing a lot of 44.5's that finishes at 47 etc. Considering the difference in payout here is almost + an extra unit, it seems insane to play standard overs or unders and not the alternate total that pays out between +175 to +225 depending on the size of the initial total.

Of course, you have to get your pick right in the first place, but the rule here seems to be if you like a total, sell some points and make more money. For every one you hit you can have 2 losses and still be even.

[mtofell]

Years ago I remember a guy telling me something similar to what you're onto. Basically, if the o/u is 45 or more take the over. If it's 40 or less take the under. I've done some (not a lot) of research like you document and for periods it pays off very well. Of course, there are then stretches where you get killed. In the long run I'm not sure how it pans out. This year I've been watching it and factoring in winning %. So, two teams with winning records and a high o/u take the over. Crappy teams with low o/u take the under (like tomorrow night's Bills/Browns game). So far this year it's been good. I think Vegas might be catching up with some the high scores we've seen this year.... the o/u lines for this weekend are pretty steep. I don't remember ever seeing them so far over 50. There are 3 I think in the high 40s or over 50. One I think was 56. I don't really have a favorite team so I don't get too hung up on who wins since I don't really care most times. I'm in the minority and I think the odds makers pay less attention to the o/u than the game spread so I've always thought there is a window of opportunity. I'm just to busy (and dumb ) to follow it enough to make it pay off.

[Mocknroll]

Working out the maths, there has been 64 games this season. Of those 64 totals results, 47 of them have covered by more than 6.5.

So 73% of all totals cover by more than 6.5 and you can get more than a unit on top of the standard total price. I will try and do the maths on sides as well, but I could almost guarantee that covering the spread is much harder to do by more than a TD. I would not subscribe to selling a TD's worth of points on a spresd.

I will be testing this over the next few weeks. The key is making sure you're on the right side to begin with.

[2daBank]

i pleased the den total last week and i think they more than a td off again so may please that with something..i made the number 64 on den/dal..

[Pivotpoint]

Interesting. Solid work. Before I got down to your third post, I thought why not refrain from selling points and just do a round robin on totals. Hit two out of three and break even?

Understand you hope to realize a profit with your strategy, vs breaking even. But, selling 6 on #'s getting steamed or already inflated is very risky. Yes rewarding, but playing with fire.

Your post caught my attention because I've been doing real well with totals. I've been on the Bears OV every week. 4-0.
One of my top plays this week and I grabbed OV+47 1/2 when they posted lines. I jumped on Broncos right away also -6 1/2 and Over 55. Bears game + 1 , Broncos + 1 1/2

All of us have tried different strategies and right when you think you are on to something, it blows up. Anyone that is betting decent size always worries about that horrific weekend when you go 0-4.

Over #'s getting inflated and selling 6 seems very dangerous. I looked at your #'s, but long term we all know that just hitting the posted # consistently is tough enough.

Myself, I just pick one or two totals a week straight up. I'll parlay a side and a total if it's to my advantage. Will keep riding streaks (Bears Ov, Broncos Ov) till they lose.

I looked at my top two picks and would be uncomfortable laying CHI/NO OV 54 1/2 and DEN/DAL OV 62 1/2

Will keep this in mind this weekend. gl

[Mocknroll]

Good hustle Pivot.

Obviously I'm looking at this from a 'get ahead' standpoint, and I'm not chasing a break even result long term. Just thought I would see if any other guys have looked at it in this light before.

I did the research on sides covering by 6.5 or more, and it's happening at only about 55% on either side, favs or dogs. From a motivational standpoint, total points are irrelevant to a team unless it has a direct outcome on the result. This is why I am looking at the possibility of selling points on totals as if teams trade scores after 2 drives, they are still in the same position outcome wise and don't care what the total is looking like..

You are spot on with the possibility of selling points on a possibly already inflated number, but I guess if you felt it was inflated you likely wouldn't play it. All depends on each circumstance.

Going on that dreaded 0-4 is precisely what prompted me to look into this. Provided you're a few plays ahead (say 5-3, or even 5-5 but still ahead on + plays) losing 4 units in a row is effectively the same as losing 2 in a row if playing the standard number as you're picking up an extra unit (or close to) with each win along the way.

Just as a brief test, you should look at how your own plays on totals would have gone if you were selling 6 up to this point. I'd be interested to see how that would affect your record and where it would leave you +/- on units.

[Pivotpoint]

Mocknroll, nice work. I already looked at my notebook, yes old school. I'm not a big totals guy, usually play 2 a week. You are correct that the overs I played all would have covered (selling points). I think Bears Totals were something like +18 off the top of my head.

I don't think I would ever sell points on Unders, I just hate sweating those out. The overs I've played have been what I call "rocking chair" games. You just lean back and circle the game in the 3rd, nothing better.

I admit, I've always been interested in selling points, but I usually refrain. Been doing this for a long time and tough to just hit the posted #'s

I do really like your strategy if/when live betting is available. You could sell the six and hedge or add exposure during game depending on how things are playing out. Often there is a high total that can get adjusted down quickly if the game starts a little slow. A lot of points are getting scored in the 2H, lately. O coordinators making adjustments and D's getting worn thin, tired.

I got to get back to work. Trying to take a break from blood bath in stk mkt.

I do like your "out of the box" thinking. Will keep an eye on. You made some interesting points. Not a lot of guys doing that lately here. Good luck with this strategy.

[Mocknroll]

Thanks Pivot.
I will be looking at Bears Saints this weekend. This and the Packers Lions game stood out to me this weekend, although I feel the Pack total has been adjusted up to match both teams output so there's not as much fat to trim.

[GemSportsPicks]

Have just done some research and I'm quite surprised by the results.

All results below show you whether the total covered by 6.5 or more. So if an over is set at 50, and the end score is 57 or more, this counts as covering. Under set at 50, and the score lands on 43 or less, this counts as covering etc.*

As you are seeing from week to week the totals and lines for that matter get consistently sharper and sharper... Therefore I would like this theory early in the year, but hate it as the year progresses... Sure you might get a statisical blip one week and win, but for the most part the lines are only going to get sharper.. Espcially in the NFL, now if your talking NCAAF then thats completely different story, way to many games for the lines to all be sharp, so there, you can def pick and choose huge advantage games.

OVERS
WEEK 1: 7-1
WEEK 2: 6-2
WEEK 3: 5-2
WEEK 4: 5-4

UNDERS
WEEK 1: 7-1
WEEK 2: 7-1
WEEK 3: 7-3
WEEK 4: 3-3

Basically, totals lines that books are dishing out are not even close. If an over hits, it goes well over and the same with unders. We’re not seeing a lot of 44.5's that finishes at 47 etc. Considering the difference in payout here is almost + an extra unit, it seems insane to play standard overs or unders and not the alternate total that pays out between +175 to +225 depending on the size of the initial total.

Of course, you have to get your pick right in the first place, but the rule here seems to be if you like a total, sell some points and make more money. For every one you hit you can have 2 losses and still be even.

As you are seeing from week to week the totals and lines for that matter get consistently sharper and sharper... Therefore I would like this theory early in the year, but hate it as the year progresses... Sure you might get a statisical blip one week and win, but for the most part the lines are only going to get sharper.. Espcially in the NFL, now if your talking NCAAF then thats completely different story, way to many games for the lines to all be sharp, so there, you can def pick and choose huge advantage games.

[Pivotpoint]

Thanks Pivot.
I will be looking at Bears Saints this weekend. This and the Packers Lions game stood out to me this weekend, although I feel the Pack total has been adjusted up to match both teams output so there's not as much fat to trim.

No problem. I looked into this a bit more. I don't spend much time on totals and focus more on sides.

I found two games that intriqued me and you might want to investigate more.

BAL/MIA OV + 43 1/2

HOU/SF OV 41

Both games have some strong trends that support the over. The Niner game has been knocked down from 42 1/2, leaving a little meat on the bone.

I'm not sure about selling points, but thinking of taking those two straight up @ the number. I'll look back at those games upon completition to see if selling points would have worked out. I want to compare it to round robins.

I have a good chunk of my roll exposed with bets locked in for weekend. Might consider a round robin if I can eliminate one, or like mentioned, just bet them straight up.

I also really like that GB/DET over, but almost seems to easy and dangerous to sell 6 on #'s in the 50's. gl

[Mocknroll]

Agree with the Houston @ SF total.

The Niners points for average is skewed by their 3 and 7 point outings against Seattle and Indy. SF are averaging giving up 24 points this season.

Houston are averaging 22 for and 26 against this season, so based purely on the numbers there is a 'bit of meat left on the bone' in this one.

A 28-20 type of game is totally achievable and would cover the over after selling points. Will keep my eye on this one.

[DoYouNotGetIT]

I cannot even fathom how anyone thinks Dolphins vs. Baltimore will go over. I am great at picking college football, NCAA Basketball, team win totals in basketball, team win totals in football, and over/unders in football. Baltimore Dolphin game the highest I see the score going is 27-21 so 48.

Week 1, Week 2, and Week 17 are usually not good to base theories off of.

[Wojo]

Well, at least you aren't buying 6 points on a total!

[Mocknroll]

I have never understood the buying points on a total principle.

I get buying a +2.5 up to a +3, but this makes no sense on a total because it's irrelevant to an outcome.

The whole premise is based on covering for losses and confidence in a play. Win 1, lose 2 just under even. Win 2, lose 2, you're profiting.

Like I said previously, I don't play totals unless I think it covers by a TD, either up or down. I don't understand guys playing an over 47.5 because they see a 27-21 result. Seems like asking for trouble.

Interesting to see the Browns Bills result tonight reflecting this theory. I leaned the over, but not by more than a TD so I laid off.

[2daBank]

I have never understood the buying points on a total principle.

I get buying a +2.5 up to a +3, but this makes no sense on a total because it's irrelevant to an outcome.

The whole premise is based on covering for losses and confidence in a play. Win 1, lose 2 just under even. Win 2, lose 2, you're profiting.

Like I said previously, I don't play totals unless I think it covers by a TD, either up or down. I don't understand guys playing an over 47.5 because they see a 27-21 result. Seems like asking for trouble.

Interesting to see the Browns Bills result tonight reflecting this theory. I leaned the over, but not by more than a TD so I laid off.

im surprised you have so many that you feel are off a td,, ill generally play them if my number is 3-4 points off of theirs..it not real often i make a number that more than a td off the set total..den games the last two weeks is more times than i can remember in forever...

[2daBank]

Agree with the Houston @ SF total.

The Niners points for average is skewed by their 3 and 7 point outings against Seattle and Indy. SF are averaging giving up 24 points this season.

Houston are averaging 22 for and 26 against this season, so based purely on the numbers there is a 'bit of meat left on the bone' in this one.

A 28-20 type of game is totally achievable and would cover the over after selling points. Will keep my eye on this one.

personally i think styles and matchups are far more important when making a number than simply looking at points allowed/scored or whether those numbers "skewed" based off a few performances..i hardly factor previous scores or points scored/allowed into my number at all...like this hou/sf gm you looking at a sf team that cannot threaten teams vertically which is hou main weakness on defense, w/o that threat sf is forced to rely on the run gm which plays into hou strength..on the other side you know hou has watched teams have success running on sf and that is what they prefer to do anyway so you looking at limited possessions in this gm as the clock will be running, then ya gotta figure how much harder it is to cash in red zone opportunities when they are coming on the tail end of 10-15 play drives, longer the drive the better chance of a costly mistake...i havnt fully capped this gm yet but i gotta say 48 points seems really high to me off my initial reaction, if i had to guess id imagine my number range falls right in between where the real number sits. prob something like 40-44ish but again this w/o me going thru the numbers just off top of my head..