Long story short I really liked the Packers at -6.5 going against the Lions. Talked to some people and now they have me on the fence, because they say the Lions could easily backdoor cover and could possibly win this game. They both have the same type of teams heavy on offense, but sketchy on defense. Line is currently -7 and I could see it going to -7.5 Packers.
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i have GB at -6.5Comment -
lions put up 40 points in their past game. this is too big a spread to cover against a team we know little about.Comment -
GB defense is terrible. Check the injury report, lots of Q's. Detroit has been fairly solid so far this year.Comment -
I'm taking the Packers.
Even though Megatron and Reggie Bush will dominate the Packers defense.
The Over looks good to bet on instead of the spread.Comment -
Anytime you are betting over or unders when you see 52 or above stay away. If you are going to bet the over just wait until in game, because if it is gonna simmer down in the 1st or 2nd quarter where you can at least get 48 to 52 (Saints yesterday went up to 57.5 then came down to 48 then up to 62.5 late in the game) Even in a blowout the team can still go under 52.5 (31-21 game still doesn't cover 52.5). Saints yesterday only hit 55 and that was as lopsided of a game you are going to find.Comment -
Pound the over and collect the cash
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My favorite line so far this week is the Over in this game.Comment -
Agreed. I like the over here.
GB o/u from books are averaging 48.33.
Average totals in these games is 61.33.
GB averaging 32 ppg.
Det o/u from books are averaging 47.5.
Average totals in these games is 55.75.
Det averaging 30.5 ppg.
Yep, trends don't last forever but I think the numbers give us an edge on the over here, especially with Detroit coming off a 40 point game and GB fresh off the bye week.Comment -
OverComment -
wants the response?
is like a woman whore of bitch! whys? becawse the womans have the response, only make the questioning for make questioning!
whys? becawse if man have make ask question for response in this, man is in world of the peoples lost.
if is thing of certain, is thing of certain!
if have make ask, not is thing of certain. so whys make betting monies on thing not is certain?Comment -
So you know for certain that this game will start slowly and then pick up? You know that there won't be a score on the opening drive, or a kick return?
We're talking about the current number and whether there's value there. There's no sense in passing on a number you like in the hope of getting a better number live and then having the game start off with an early score and you are already behind the closer.
You may indeed be right, but by the same principle why do any of us bet any pre-game numbers if we can just sit back and get guaranteed better numbers in-game?Comment -
Only games this year where the line hasn't bounced down from 52 or over and went over was the Steelers vs. Bears week 4, Eagles vs. Redskins week 1, and week 1 and 4 Bronco's games. Unless you are betting on the Broncos it seems like a easy decision to make. It is more the exception to the rule to say that the line won't bounce down.
Bears/Lions game they scored 6 points in the first quarter combined even if the Lions or Bears were driving in the opponents territory the number would be lowered dramatically. The game ended 40-32 Lions.
FYI going into complete stat geek and making a thread about in game betting in the handicapper section. Will post here once done.Comment -
I am trying to explain to people that if you have a 50 or over total number wait till in-game betting. Only have opening lines for over/unders not closing lines for every week previous of week 3.
3 Games 50 or over week 1 lines
Redskins vs. Eagles went over and was NOT able to get a better line in in-game betting
Falcons vs. Saints went under (of course you could get a better line in in-game betting if it goes under)
Pats vs. Bills Went Under
Two out of Three you could have waited and got a better number, but the one you couldn't was the only one that went over (Redskins vs. Eagles)
2 Games over 50 Week 2
Chargers vs. Philledelphia went over and was able to get a better line in in-game betting
Broncos vs. Giants went over and was able to get a better line in in-game betting
3 Games over 50 Week 3
Eagles vs. Kansas City Went under would of had to wait till the 3rd quarter.
Cardinals vs. Saints Went under and would of got a better line.
Raiders vs. Broncos Went over and would of got a better line
3 Games over 50 Week 4
Eagles vs. Denver Went over and was not able to get a better line in in-game betting.
New England vs. Atlanta Went over and was able to get a better line in in-game betting
New Orleans vs. Miami Went over and was able to get a better line in in-game betting.
First 4 weeks = 9 out of 11 chance of getting a better in-game total than betting before kickoff IF the total pre-game is 50 or above. It would be even higher percentage if I had all the ending lines with over 50. Even if I take out the unders it is still 5 out of 7. Don't want to hear this is common sense multiple people implied waiting for in-line betting was dumb on high point totals (50 or over totals).Comment -
Great research DoYouNot. The figures are certainly there. The aim of sportsbetting is to always get the best number and tip the odds in your favour. Do you know in how many of those games did the result finish under the closing number but over the lowest live number. And in how many of those games did the total go over the original number regardless of the best live number?
My book offers alternate totals markets in-game so based on your research it may be profitable.
For example, in the pack lions game the number is 52.5. Let's say 10 minutes in the in-game number is now at over 47.5 @ -120. You will be able to get over 50.5 at about +120 and over 53.5 at roughly +190.
So based in your theory, the aim might not be to get a better number, but to get a better price on the original number.
what are your thoughts on this?Comment -
Eagles Kansas City for sure because the line was 50 pre game and ended at 42, but since you had to wait till the 3rd quarter to bet you would have got a great total. Pats Bills maybe, because Pats were up by 10 with 20 minutes already passed with Bills punting to the Pats and game ended at 44. The rest of the unders were 40 or under totals at the end. So for sure 1 out of 4 and maybe 2 out of 4.
Point is to bet at the beginning of the game or after the quarter and with the first tv timeout which is usually about 4 to 5 minutes into the quarter.
The computer moves the line by 3 or 5 points usually. DONT BET AT HALFTIME IT IS A SUCKERS BET. They stick it at around 24 and all the people who bet over will keep betting over. 20.5 to 24 is what I usually see it at for the live in-betting games. Since the first half was high scoring or first half was low scoring it must go over 24 (gambler logic works both ways). I have always wondered if betting under 2nd half for games pays off. It has to, but there has to be a strategy to get money.Comment -
In game betting seems a bit tougher for you since you have to wait until a tv time out.
I'm in Australia and we can bet during action. Denver might be 30 out on a 1st and 10 and I can still ring in and bet the over.Comment -
really? cause i played phi/den over 58 and cashed easily last week and already hit den/dal ov 55.5 as that too short as well..for most part i agree with this but books cant really line den gms where they should be right now.. far as this gm i dont like the over tho so im with you there..Comment -
best reason not to bet pack laying a td, det dline will eat up that suspect front of the pack and be pressuring discount double fukk much like the bungals did,,det secondary has serious holes that bungals did not tho,, on the other hand det offense much more potent with stafford than the bungals with dalton.. i think pack get the win off the bye but whether they cover or not i dunno..Comment
