maybe some people can help me .. bengals opened at my book at -5 and now they are at -4 but like 70 percent is on the bengals .. shouldnt it be going the other way? if everyone is betting on the bengals shouldnt it go up to like -6/-7
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percentage of the bets dont mean shit, for one who the hell knows if they accurate? secondly and the bigger point is it not the % of ppl on a side that determine a move but the actual money so if we assuming the number you have is correct it simply means the 30% are throwing down more money than the 70%..Comment -
Bank - ignore percentages for a minute. What do you make of game where the spread doesn't move yet You see decent movement in the ML. I don't know these exactly but as an example Seahwaks/Texans; spread opens -3 and ML -137/+124. Spread remains -3 yet the underdog ML has dropped to +113. Just curious to your thoughts when there is significant ML movement when spread is static.Comment -
i make of it that i could have cared less about their juiced up pussy +3 and bet the ml and id assume i wasnt the only one, lol (got +130 tho)...i dont know the best answer honestly, id guess what i just said is partially true as who the hell wants to pay juice on the chance of a push? id guess that if books drop it off the 3 that they prob take the chance of seeing more wong teasers on the dog along with metal cases that tease favs across 0 they would end up exposed to more key numbers on both sides, and id also guess along with that come gm day it prob will drop off the number at some point as i think hou/balt followed basically same pattern last week till finally shifting and closing around pk..Comment -
This is called Reverse Line Movement.
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In addition to what's been said above about more money coming in on the Browns, you gotta keep a couple things in context. 5 is a dead number, though 4.5 is not so there must have been a decent amount of action on the Browns. Betting limits also generally go through a few wager-limit phases. The overnight might be a 5k max bet the night a line is posted. Then go to 10k until Wednesday, 20k through Saturday, and then 50k on game day, as an example. Point being, it doesn't take a lot to move a line this early in the week, especially off the 5.
This is a better resource for these numbers: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/consensus/Comment
