My modeling picks for the NFL...this week based on 3 years worth of data..

[usma1992]

G	Visitor		Home			Sprd	VEGAS	PROJ		O/U
1	SAN FRANCISCO	0	ST LOUIS	0		3	41.5	35.9		U
2	PITTSBURGH	0	MINNESOTA	0		1.5	42.5	50.8		O
3	BALTIMORE	0	BUFFALO	0		3.5	44.0	36.8		U
4	CINCINNATI	0	CLEVELAND	0		4.5	42.0	53.4		O
5	INDIANAPOLIS	0	JACKSONVILLE	0		7.5	42.5	39.1		U
6	SEATTLE	0	HOUSTON	0		2.5	41.5	33.4		U
7	ARIZONA	0	TAMPA BAY	0		-3	40.5	33.8		U
8	CHICAGO	0	DETROIT	0		-2.5	47.0	40.5		U
9	NY GIANTS	0	KANSAS CITY	0		-4.5	44.0	39.6		U
10	NY JETS	0	TENNESSEE	0		-3.5	39.0	20.2		U
11	DALLAS	0	SAN DIEGO	0		1	47.0	50.4		O
12	WASHINGTON	0	OAKLAND	0		3	43.5	39.6		U
13	PHILADELPHIA	0	DENVER	0		-11	57.0	50.6		U
14	NEW ENGLAND	0	ATLANTA	0		-2	49.5	58.9		O
15	MIAMI	0	NEW ORLEANS	0		-6.5	48.0	59.8		O

[usma1992]

It occurred to me recently after talking to a couple of colleagues... that you may be misconstruing my back testing. Each Year with the football teams... I start with a completely clean slate. I don't care what has happened in the past. I start the team as a new unit.... If I tweak I am tweaking the weightings ever so slightly... but not the methodology. Recently, I am uploading the actual weeks or games results and seeing how my system would have predicted had they known the results. I am looking at the results in 3 different ways... Prior to the game ... using the stats that exist....the actual stats that occurred during the game...how did the system pick... and finally the cumulative statistics which includes all the week priors and the actual week that just occurred. I will say this... all stats seem to point to success. I look forward to seeing Week 6.

[Sarunas]

is so much attractive the excel!

good luck

[Sarunas]

first half >/= 40 point

theys make under in second half?

stastistic?


2013: 2-1, 66.66%

1. xxx
2. min/chi
3. cle/min
4. chi/det

[hitman09]

onlu pick on totals?