Noleafclover's NFL

[Noleafclover]

Did pretty well on paper last 2 years, playin for realzies now. Check out past info @ natesbets.wordpress.com select category - NFL.

Mostly play select favorites and teases. Profit c. 35% 2012 c. 45% 2011, with large betting units (5/10%). Will be using 3.33% units this year cause I'm chicken. Generally 2-4 plays a week, less here at the start of the year.

Pending -

190985508

8/16/13 9:43pm

-$180.00

<balance omitted>

1 Wager(s) Placed

190985508-1

$180.00

$150.00

Pending

9/9/13 10:20pm NFL Football 481 Houston Texans -3 -120* vs San Diego Chargers

And a prop parlay -

194166373	9/5/13 5:48pm	-$200.00	<balance omitted>	1 Wager(s) Placed	194166373-1	$200.00	$205.14		Pending	5 Team Parlay
									Pending	9/8/13 1:00pm Props Football 25336 Field wins NFC West -1275* vs St. Louis Rams win NFC West
									Pending	9/8/13 1:00pm Props Football 25341 New England Patriots win AFC East -420* vs Field wins AFC East
									Pending	9/5/13 8:30pm Props Football 25358 Field wins AFC North -1000* vs Cleveland Browns win AFC North
									Pending	9/8/13 1:00pm Props Football 25366 Field wins AFC South -1375* vs Tennessee Titans win AFC South
									Pending	9/5/13 8:30pm Props Football 25371 Denver Broncos win AFC West -350* vs Field wins AFC West

GL fellas lets get some

[Noleafclover]

Best tease leg I've EVAR seen. ATL +10 @ Miami. Seriously, Miami's going to blow out probably the #4 team in the NFL (little weaker right now w injuries but they have depth at those positions)?!! Wonder how Miami's secondary will be too, but in any case, somewhere between a 2-5% chance of Miami winning by 10+.

Don't see a lot of great other tease legs, lemme know if you see any?

For now taking that + Saints pk v Cards for 100. Hope to find another leg to pair w ATL.


History...
Not sure how much I'm going to update this, but last week went 1-1, hit a teaser for 100 Ravens -1 + Texans -2 (Texans sure made me sweat), and missed on a round robin - chargers niners steelers ML - that I had 20 down on. Total profit - $80, on a 3k bkroll. Here's tickets from Betonline, can also read history at natesbets.wordpress.com, 50 of the 150 on the tease is down for my father.

243305800 - 1

Sep 15, 2013 04:40 AM

Parlay fp

$7.50

$49.78

Loss

Football - 221 San Francisco 49ers +135 for Game Football - 223 Pittsburgh Steelers +225 for Game

243305788 - 1

Sep 15, 2013 04:38 AM

Parlay fp

$5.00

$51.06

Loss

Football - 195 San Diego Chargers +245 for Game Football - 223 Pittsburgh Steelers +225 for Game

243305773 - 1

Sep 15, 2013 04:37 AM

Parlay fp

$7.50

$53.31

Loss

Football - 195 San Diego Chargers +245 for Game Football - 221 San Francisco 49ers +135 for Game

243305585 - 1

Sep 15, 2013 04:19 AM

Teaser fp

$180.00

$150.00

Win

Football - 198 Baltimore Ravens -1 for Game Football - 200 Houston Texans -2 for Game

[Noleafclover]

YTD 2-1-1 +1.8u

This week's plays:

Chi +10 @ Det w/ Den -4 v Phi -130 @ betonline
Hou/Sea > 41.5 -103 @ 5d

Strong leans:
NYG +4 @ KC (never seen a team go scoreless then fail to cover next week, but I just can't pull the trigger here with the injuries)
One other I'll keep my tongue between my teeth on as I look to play a similar spot in the future.

[Noleafclover]

Backdoor it for me one time, baby! 2-pt. conversion here!

Better to be lucky than good! Horrible tease leg

Taking a couple other plays -
stacking up another Den-4 tease with Saints -1 .55 u to win .5
sd/dal > 47

[Noleafclover]

Well, I've got to lose something today, but I intend to do it with a terrific amount of +EV.

So the play tonight is-

Atl wins first half and loses game +875 17->148.75 @ 5dimes.

[Noleafclover]

Well, I've got to lose something today, but I intend to do it with a terrific amount of +EV.

So the play tonight is-

Atl wins first half and loses game +875 17->148.75 @ 5dimes.

A play away on that 4th/2 in the 1st half, field goal, 1st down, or TD and this bet wins. Likely end this week 6-0 and 0-2 longshots, but this was surely the best play I've made this season at +875.

Right side here, and a great day results-wise overall. That Chicago tease though

YTD ATS/Totals/Teases: 5-0-1 +5u
YTD longball parlays and props: 0-2 -0.37u

[Noleafclover]

Make it 6-0. Half a unit more. Keep it rockin.

[Noleafclover]

New York Jets VS Atlanta Falcons
	Falcons	-2½	+100
	Denver Broncos VS Dallas Cowboys
	Broncos	-½	+105

140 to win 100 for me

Anyone know how to remove this sbr-trivia signature thingy?

[djmano]

its that margaery tyrell

[Noleafclover]

natalie dormer da hottest

[Noleafclover]

And

	Baltimore Ravens VS Miami Dolphins
	Ravens	+10	-120
	New York Jets VS Atlanta Falcons
	Falcons	-2½	+100

135 to 100

[Noleafclover]

Last but not least, Texans/9ers > 41.5 -110.

By the way, feel free to chime in and tell me why I'm wrong or ask for some reasoning, seems like no one replies to threads that don't talk like "lock it up take it to the bank i'm the best ever fade if you dare this is the play" and all that drama shit, but I actually am kicking some serious ass this year so hate/love/beherebutneutral.

[Noleafclover]

6-3 now Tough week last week. Still c. +2u up, will post record after this week.

For tomorrow, have GB -3 +100 (took early, foolishly, but its not too bad cause of the lack of juice), Min/Car > 44, SF -3 + SEA -6 teaser (1/2 unit).

[Noleafclover]

Half a unit profit last week, around 2.3u profit running. Still seething about GB, so many random things went wrong in that game, gotta feel like I still had the right side.

And haven't been posting props and longball parlays in this thread, you can find them elsewhere, check 5mike5 and some of my threads on props week-to-week, if anyone would like I can post here.

We're 2-3 there, for -.175 u, but thats fine because of the Atl first half play coming so close.
History-
A 3-team dog round robin, $20 (.2u) total outlay, Chargers over Eagles, Niners over Seahawks, Steelers over Bengals lost.
ATL first half + NE game +8 or 975 barely lost, $20 outlay.
Woodhead > 45.5 receiving v Colts -125 $30 won 25.
Tate > 8.5 carries week 6 +120 $25 won $30.
Wilson > 44.5 yards rushing $32.25 lost.

[Noleafclover]

This week we're down on:

CHI pk @ was +105
GB -3 v cle + SF +3 @ ten teaser -135 (don't tail, Locker may start and GB's even more injured than I thought)
SEA -1 @ ari + DEN -1 @ ind -110, sorry this is posted late, but doesn't seem like many people interested anyway. And if you're worried its past-posting, I referenced it in a thread where someone asked for teaser advice and have the bet slip.

[Noleafclover]

Leans -
Bills +7 @ Mia - Doesn't hurt that Thad is from there. But mainly, these teams have been pretty consistently putting up mid 20s. Almost universally, in fact. Worry is Bills are a run-first o, miami's got the run d. Also considering a sack prop here. Over the posted total, that is.
Jets/Pats > 43.5 - Mainly cause Gronk's back, but the injuries on the Pats D definitely don't hurt this.
Vikings/Giants > 47ish - Vikings have given up c. 30 points every game this season iirc, and the giants D is a sieve. Don't know I like overs on primetime.
Buccs/Falcons <43.5 or teased to 50ish - with the falcons injuries, playcalling issues, and their redzone offense, and the Buccs secondary and poor scoring performances. Wish this was in Tampa though. Could also see the Falcons special teams shafting us.

May also end up teasing some of the others. More work after the fights. Thoughts?

[Noleafclover]

Late adds:
.5u Bills +14.5 w Buccs/falcons < 50.5 -135
.5u 49ers/Titans >41 -104. May up it to a full unit before the 1'o'clock, but I've actually got most of my money tied up for different reasons, should probably keep more of my bankroll actually with books. Am really interested to see the sack props for Hou/KC and moreso Buf/Mia, I like over 6 or better in the latter (make the line @ 7/7.5).

[Noleafclover]

By the way, I would be careful about tailing the SF tease leg. I made it when I thought Locker was unlikely to play. It's not horrible, but it would be my last choice of what I've taken and there are probably better legs out there. Hell, I'd say it's -EV.

In my defense, by making some picks early I beat the shit out of the closing line in the Bears closing line. But I should still be more careful.

[Noleafclover]

Took Bills/Dolphins Sacks > 5.5 -135 @ betonline to win .38u with the untapped money I had there, wish I deposited larger but not going to mess with their screwy system now. May add @ 5d if similar line.

Also took Gonzalez > 6.5 catches -140 to win .25u @ 5d, just missed -125 but I have trouble seeing this not hit.

[Noleafclover]

Gonzalez > 6.5 seems kinda foolish in hindsight with Revis in play, word is they were playing zone but still, any man-to-man you'd think he may cover Gonzalez if not Douglass. Probably my worst prop play to date.

Anyway, still c. +0.5u profit overall, hardly inspiring, we've crashed down to earth. Will do an exact count after this week unless someone wants to for me If anyone's tailing or taking advice, we're certainly underperforming last two year's results so still take me seriously folks, though of course make your own decisions.

~~~~~This week~~~~~

Tried to BTCL, unfortunately down on chiefs -.5/packers -3 -140 tease (to win 1u, as always unless otherwise stated). Both quarterback situations took a turn for the worse for us, so I'm not particularly happy with this play to say the least. Lets luck out.

Enamored with this though. Pats -6 + Pats/Fins > 45 parlay +264 (.8u risked, don't ask why). Its not that I think Pats -6 is horrific, though I have it at -6.5 myself here in NE with Bellicheat runnin scores and their offense getting healthier. Could see a good old-fashioned Pats stomp of the Fins. Honestly will take a healthy Pats offense and an injured Pats D over the opposite any day of the week, its closer to their modus operandum for the last couple years. But the big thing is that excluding 2 outliers (17, 27 iirc), Dolphins have consistently scored 20-24 points. So if Pats cover -6, this should go over.

Props leans, really into Chiefs/Browns field goal in game >44.5 12 field goals attempted in Chiefs games >40yards (5 by Chiefs), staggering 16 in Browns games (7 by Browns). Be careful on juice on a prop like this I think, its still something you're not calling to happen, but saying happens more often than not, moreso than other bets I think. But certainly on it @ -125, and it's usually not even juiced at all.

Chiefs/Browns sacks over also looks good, chiefs 5 spg - 2.5 spg allowed, browns 3spg - 4spg allowed (weedon factor inflates the latter number), would possibly make the line at 6 but you may see a very careful game. I'd certainly be on 5 nonetheless, 5.5 would be freaking tempting.

Also lean field goal in game >44.5 Raiders/Steelers, Jets/Bungals.

[Noleafclover]

to win .25u Welker TD yes -195

[Noleafclover]

Going to be pretty penetrating pissed if that blocked field goal brings us to the final score.

[Noleafclover]

Down for next week .5u Bengals -1.5 @ Fins. Expect heavy movement, but my betonline money's tied up and their deposit system is horrid. The over should continue to rise as well and I lean there as well, expect it to settle 42.5 (opened 40).

[Noleafclover]

Well I BTCL but injuries are a worry. Still happy with my position.

Also down on .5u Fins/Bengals sacks > 5.5 -130.

Oh and update ---- total profit to date = .75u. Not what I'd hoped for by this point.

[Noleafclover]

profit: .7u

down on vikings/boys > 47.5, ponder startin.

[Noleafclover]

My hungover ass managed to get down on -

249672334 - 1

Nov 03, 2013 12:56 PM

Future/Prop

$31.25

$25.00

NFL Game Props - Minnesota @ Dallas - Total Passing yards by Christian Ponder (MIN) - Over 225½ Passing Yards -125

249670668 - 1

Nov 03, 2013 12:52 PM

Future/Prop

$40.00

$25

NFL Game Props - Kansas City @ Buffalo - Total QB Sacks Made in the Game - Over 5½ Sacks -160

249670010 - 1

Nov 03, 2013 12:50 PM

Teaser

$57.50

$50.00

Football - 409 Kansas City Chiefs +1 for Game Football - 404 Dallas Cowboys -3 for Game

249354369 - 1

Nov 01, 2013 02:56 PM

Total

$110.00

$100.00

Football - 403 Minnesota Vikings/Dallas Cowboys over 47½ -110 for Game

Probably way too much action on the vikings/boys game, if my story isn't correct there could be some serious losses here, but w/e.

[Noleafclover]

.35u to win .25u Lacy > 2.5 catches -140

.25u to win .375u Defense/Spec teams TD in game YES +150

lean mccown > 20.5 completions -115....

[Noleafclover]

On SF/Car > 41.5 200 (see the thread I made)
DAL/NO > 53 -108 25 (weird number but I thought I had a good reason for it based on where my money is in which accounts, but turns out no real props I like so I wish I had for more... may add still, think its at 53.5).

[Noleafclover]

Welker TD yes -155 roughly to win .2u

[Noleafclover]

Tough week last week, we're now down, about 1.3u roughly. Must say, new feeling going 0-2 on locks so far this season. Lines seem tougher.

.5u Pats +8.5 @ panthers, broncos -1.5 v chiefs (-120 6-pt tease). Love the pats leg.
.25u Roethlisberger > 265.5 yards -125. Don't really understand this line, Big Ben averages 282, the lions are 27th in passing, probably largely because they jump out to leads. I guess the theory is that the Steelers solid d against the pass will prevent the lions from going apeshit on the scoreboard (which would prevent the steelers from having to pass too much, which is probably the larger factor in why DET is 27th than any actual horridness on their part). But I'm not entirely sure the Steelers secondary will hold up, faith shaken by that Pats game. And if so, I could still see Roth covering..

GL all

[Noleafclover]

rough record: -.3. can give specifics and win/loss if requested, imagine I'm 3 games over 500 (0-2 locks is killer), maybe -.25, maybe -.4u.

down on saints -2.5 @ falcons + chargers +12 @ chiefs -135 (1u)

[Noleafclover]

update on last post, math was off - rough record is -.8 units.

.5u ($50) den/ne > 53

Welker cleared. Clear weather, if cold. Would take for more but I'm juggling trying to tail vegasreaper and pinny420, and VR has 17 lines for ncaa football. If line doesn't change overmuch, expect another half unit.

Lil writeup here - both these teams have been playing solid defensive teams lately, SD is bad for Denver because of their ability to drive and control time of posession when they want to, their season average is 33mins, but they put up 38min on Den. KC is KC. Carolina also needs no explanation against NE. Miami was a lowish number, but Miami's D is so-so, and their off below average. The 80 points v Pitt tells more the story, and NE's d just isn't what it was earlier in the season with all the season ending injuries. Also expect Welker to show up big here against his former team. Lastly, Den's strong rushing d means if Bellichek knows his stuff, NE takes to the air. Julius Thomas questionable, Bailey may play, NE missing a CB (new injury).

[Noleafclover]

Last and least, .25u bears/rams > 46. Possibly player props to come..

Edit: Nm that sacks line at 3.5 was a mistaken line, betonline cancelled and wrote it up at 5.5. We're instead going to take pitt/cle > 3.5 fgs +125 to win .15u. Think there's a bit of value there.

[Noleafclover]

Rough record +$95.. again if anyone actually gives a shit i'll update this

Down on steelers + 8.5 + pats -3 (-120) for 50. Kinda a no-brainer. Wanted the +10, but still kinda feel pitt is the better team lately. May reuse that pats leg, just too much difference in level of play right now. Grant you houston does have talent and this seems like a bad spot for the pats after the emotional OT win, but gotta say they crap on hou.

And 25 on Lions -6.5 -105. Like their run d here, slight injury advantage, this is kind of their chance to get revenge on the packers for all those thanksgivings. Packers prolly want this more, cause this would almost certainly eliminate them if they lose, but wanting it more + matt flynn seems like a recipe for disaster, not clear-headed decisions. Packers talking a little trash is also good, usually doesn't go well for the trash-talking team.

[Noleafclover]

It DID hit the 3 and I took +10 w/ pats -2 -135 for the other 50. Not watching game, taped and tailing VR on ole miss so watching that. Don't tell me.