BigBurk's 2013 NFL

[BigBurk]

Sunday, 1:00 pm games:

Seattle Seahawks -3, 1.87
Miami Dolphins +1, 2.02
Indianapolis Colts -10½, 2.00
Kansas City Chiefs -3½, 1.92
Atlanta Falcons +3½, 2.00

Flat betting them, 1 unit each.

[BigBurk]

So, 3-2 start to the season with a mere profit of 0.81 units. Too bad I didn't play Buffalo and Tennesee both as dogs, but they did qualify as plays. Going easy on the amount of plays early on.

[BigBurk]

New England Patriots -12, 2.00

[BigBurk]

Bad game by the Pats last Thursday. Plenty of games today to make up for it! Here we go:

Baltimore Ravens -7, 1.95
Houston Texans -9, 2.05
Dallas Cowboys +3, 1.85
Detroit Lions ML, 1.85
Denver Broncos -4, 1.91
San Francisco 49'ers +3, 1.82

Good luck!

[swordsandtequila]

Double B's! Welcome back. Come on over to the soccer forum, not too many knuckleheads there. Need some more of those bank-padding parlays .

I'm on Baltimore in BTP, probably throw them in an open parlay too. Good luck today!


(Best time of year, football/major soccer leagues back in action. Action junkies dream)

[BigBurk]

Double B's! Welcome back. Come on over to the soccer forum, not too many knuckleheads there. Need some more of those bank-padding parlays .

I'm on Baltimore in BTP, probably throw them in an open parlay too. Good luck today!


(Best time of year, football/major soccer leagues back in action. Action junkies dream)

Hehe thanks bro. Been away for a while from the forum and really focussed on live betting the second half of the soccer season last year. Very profitable, but not really easy to post on the forum. Besides, there's way too much douchebags out there, lol!

New to NFL betting, so just using this thread to track my bets. 3-3 last night, but unlucky with Houston and Detroit playing like shit. Wouldn't have thought that the 49'ers would get their asses handed to them like they had!

How have you been doing lately?

[BigBurk]

Baltimore Ravens -7, 1.95
Houston Texans -9, 2.05
Dallas Cowboys +3, 1.85
Detroit Lions ML, 1.85
Denver Broncos -4, 1.91
San Francisco 49'ers +3, 1.82

YTD = 6-6-0 --> -0,49x

[BigBurk]

Cincinnati Bengals -6½, 1.92

[swordsandtequila]

How have you been doing lately?

You know, some weeks you run hot others not so much . Just glad the big leagues are back. Good luck, will look for your posted plays.

[BigBurk]

Cincinnati Bengals -6½, 1.92

The winner on the Bengals gets us back in profit again. Should have had to be more picky though on the plays. I grade my plays by margin and if I had only played the games with a margin of 7+ points (at least one TD) this would have been them:

Week 1:

Seattle Seahawks -3, 1.87
Miami Dolphins +1, 2.02
Kansas City Chiefs -3½, 1.92

Week 2:

Baltimore Ravens -7, 1.95
Dallas Cowboys +3, 1.85
Denver Broncos -4, 1.91
San Francisco 49'ers +3, 1.82
Cincinnati Bengals -6½, 1.92

Profit on these 7+ margin games is (7-1) +5.44x

The other plays had a margin between 3-7 points and needless to say I will not be playing them the upcoming weeks.

[BigBurk]

No play tonight. Will probably have three plays this weekend!

[BigBurk]

Week 3 plays:

As I mentioned I am only playing the teams with a margin above 7 points (one TD). The margin (total edge, after spread correction) is listed behind the plays, in bold.

Green Bay Packers -2.5, 1.80 (+11.5)
New Orleans Saints -9, 2.10 (+11)
Chicago Bears -2.5, 1.82 (+8.5)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Dallas Cowboys -4 (+6)
Washington Redskins -1 (+5)
Miami Dolphins -1 (+6)
SF 49'ers -10.5 (+5.5)
Seattle Seahawks -19 (+6)

[BigBurk]

Need some 2H magic from GB and NO!

[BigBurk]

Week 3 plays:

As I mentioned I am only playing the teams with a margin above 7 points (one TD). The margin (total edge, after spread correction) is listed behind the plays, in bold.

Green Bay Packers -2.5, 1.80 (+11.5)
New Orleans Saints -9, 2.10 (+11)
Chicago Bears -2.5, 1.82 (+8.5)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Dallas Cowboys -4 (+6)
Washington Redskins -1 (+5)
Miami Dolphins -1 (+6)
SF 49'ers -10.5 (+5.5)
Seattle Seahawks -19 (+6)

Could have been a great night if it wasn't for the Green Bay Fumblers, blowing a 16pt 2H lead.

2-1 on the night, +0.92x.

[BigBurk]

YTD = 9-7-0 --> +1.35x

[BigBurk]

Posting week 4 plays early, let's go:

Week 4 plays:

Indianapolis Colts -9½, 2.10 (+11½)
Kansas City Chiefs -4, 1.91 (+7)
Denver Broncos -10½, 1.87 (+9½)
Dallas Cowboys -1, 1.85 (+7)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Chicago Bears +3 (+6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (+6)
Seattle Seahawks -2½ (+5½)
Washington Redskins -3 (+5)

Good luck!

[BigBurk]

Posting week 4 plays early, let's go:

Week 4 plays:

Indianapolis Colts -9½, 2.10 (+11½)
Kansas City Chiefs -4, 1.91 (+7)
Denver Broncos -10½, 1.87 (+9½)
Dallas Cowboys -1, 1.85 (+7)
Seattle Seahawks -1, 1.82 (+7)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Chicago Bears +3 (+6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (+6)
Washington Redskins -3 (+5)

Good luck!

Line movement has made Seattle a play. Updated above.

[BigBurk]

Posting week 4 plays early, let's go:

Week 4 plays:

Indianapolis Colts -9½, 2.10 (+11½)
Kansas City Chiefs -4, 1.91 (+7)
Denver Broncos -10½, 1.87 (+9½)
Dallas Cowboys -1, 1.85 (+7)
Seattle Seahawks -1 (+7)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Chicago Bears +3 (+6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 (+6)
Washington Redskins -3 (+5)

Good luck!

Another good night on the 7+ margin plays, going 4-1 and adding 2.7 units.

YTD on 7+ marging plays is now at 13-3 (81%), +9.06 units.

[BigBurk]

Week 5 plays:

New Orleans Saints ML, 1.91 (+7)
Indianapolis Colts +1, 2.05 (+8)
Kansas City Chiefs -1, 1.85 (+8)
San Diego Chargers -4, 1.91 (+10)
Atlanta Falcons -10½, 2.05 (+9½)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Philadelphia Eagles +1 (+5)
Carolina Panthers -1 (+5)

[BigBurk]

Week 5 plays:

New Orleans Saints ML, 1.91 (+7)
Indianapolis Colts +1, 2.05 (+8)
Kansas City Chiefs -1, 1.85 (+8)
San Diego Chargers -4, 1.91 (+10)
Atlanta Falcons -10½, 2.05 (+9½)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Philadelphia Eagles +1 (+5)
Carolina Panthers -1 (+5)

We're good at the first three plays. Way to get started. That makes 16-3 for a whopping 84%!!

[BigBurk]

Can't win them all though! Chargers won't make up for this.

[swordsandtequila]

Nice run Burk

[BigBurk]

Let's see if the Falcons can finish this nice week with a win.

[BigBurk]

Week 5 plays:

New Orleans Saints ML, 1.91 (+7)
Indianapolis Colts +1, 2.05 (+8)
Kansas City Chiefs -1, 1.85 (+8)
San Diego Chargers -4, 1.91 (+10)
Atlanta Falcons -10½, 2.05 (+9½)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Philadelphia Eagles +1 (+5)
Carolina Panthers -1 (+5)

Very disappointing play by Atlanta last night! Too bad we couldn't continue that run we had going on the first three plays there.

3-2 on the week, +0.81x

Total record on 7+ margin plays is 16-5 (76%), +9.87 units.

[BigBurk]

Looking into the weekend games right now, will post the plays later!

[BigBurk]

Week 6 plays:

Minnesota Vikings -1, 1.75 (+7)
New York Jets -1, 1.78 (+10)
Seattle Seahawks -13½, 1.97 (+14½)
New Orleans Saints +1, 2.15 (+7)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Houston Texans -9 (+5)
Oakland Raiders +9½ (+6½)
Denver Broncos -26 (+5)
Arizona Cardinals +11 (+5)

[BigBurk]

Houston line at -7½, that makes an edge of 6½, still half a point short. Watching this closely to see if it will drop another bit.

[BigBurk]

Wow, all the way back to -9½ now.

[BigBurk]

Rough start on the first two plays! Let's hope we can make this a 2-2 final score.

[BigBurk]

Week 6 plays:

Minnesota Vikings -1, 1.75 (+7)
New York Jets -1, 1.78 (+10)
Seattle Seahawks -13½, 1.97 (+14½)
New Orleans Saints +1, 2.15 (+7)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Houston Texans -9 (+5)
Oakland Raiders +9½ (+6½)
Denver Broncos -26 (+5)
Arizona Cardinals +11 (+5)

When it rains, it pours! First weekend out of profit (and out of a single win...).

Record on 7+ margin games is now at 16-9 (64%), +5.87 units.

[BigBurk]

Totally forgot to mention how sick I am on that Saints loss. But they got what was coming.. Don't EVER celebrate too early. Especially when Brady is involved.

[BigBurk]

Week 7 plays:

Kansas City Chiefs -6, 1.91 (+7)
Jacksonville Jaguars +9½, 1.78 (+7½)

Teams that just missed the cut:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (+6)
Cincinnati Bengals +1 (+5)
Buffalo Bills +9½ (+6½)
New England Patriots -3½ (+5½)

[chosen4th]

whats the number in the margin? how much you think they will cover by?

[BigBurk]

whats the number in the margin? how much you think they will cover by?

Yes, the numbers is the amount of points I think they will cover by with the spread already calculated in. So in case of KC, I expect them to win with a 13 pt margin.

[chosen4th]

i was thinking of canceling my KC bet.. Ive got them -6, Pats -3 and denver -6... i feel 2 of those 3 will lose so i wanna drop atleast 1