Sheldon Copper 2013-2014 NFL OLG Point Spread Thread

2daBank · 09-08-13, 07:16 AM

id dump oak and minny...i cant play the jets myself but i wouldnt play tampa either..think you will do ok with that card tho...gl

dnwjdl · 09-08-13, 07:23 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

id dump oak and minny...i cant play the jets myself but i wouldnt play tampa either..think you will do ok with that card tho...gl

I was quite shocked to see the MIN/DET come down to -4 from -5. If anything, I expected the line to go to -5.5 or -6. A lot of money pounded MIN yesterday for sure. Thanks so much for the tips! I have another lean ARI +4.5.

dnwjdl · 09-08-13, 07:32 AM

Early leans for Week 1:
1 BUF +11
4 NYJ +4.5
5 JAK +4.5
6 CAR +4.5
9 MIN +5.5
10 OAK +11
12 ARZ +4.5
14 PHI +4.5
15 SD +5.5

I have 9 leans for Week 1 and have to narrow it down to 6 games. I will dump OAK for sure. Two more to go!

dnwjdl · 09-08-13, 09:38 AM

More leans for Week 1:
2 TEN +7
3 NWO -3

dnwjdl · 09-08-13, 10:04 AM

I chose six games for round robin 5's x 6
1 BUF +11 H
4 NYJ +4.5 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
14 PHI +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H

Ticket #1
4 NYJ +4.5 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
14 PHI +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #2
1 BUF +11 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
14 PHI +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #3
1 BUF +11 H
4 NYJ +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
14 PHI +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #4
1 BUF +11 H
4 NYJ +4.5 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
14 PHI +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #5
1 BUF +11 H
4 NYJ +4.5 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H
Risking 0.4 units to win 7.6 units

Ticket #6
1 BUF +11 H
4 NYJ +4.5 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
14 PHI +4.5 A
Risking 0.4 units to win 7.6 units

Total: risking 2 units to win 38 units

dnwjdl · 09-10-13, 12:49 AM

Week 1: round robin 5's x 6 +4 units
1 BUF +11 H
4 NYJ +4.5 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
14 PHI +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H

CAR killed 5 out of 6 tickets, costing me 34 units. Won ticket #3 for 5.7 units though.
YTD +4 units

dnwjdl · 09-14-13, 09:02 AM

Last week, I went 5 out of 6, winning 4 units. I normally play my tickets on Sunday, but there are too many good lines available to pass before the lines change tomorrow morning. I see this as something like information arbitrage that takes advantage of the lines that are significantly different from consensus amongst sports-betting sites. I play round of robin, so that I will win some money even if I get one game wrong.

YTD +4 units

Week 2: round of robin 5's x 6

1 STL +7.5 V
Most sites have STL +5.5, so getting more than a touchdown is a gift. I expect OLG to move this line to +7 on Sunday.

3 KC -2.5 H
KC is a -3 favorite on many sites and its money line is around -160. I like KC to win a tight game at home.

4 MIA +3.5 V
IND went from -3 to -1 at Pinnacle Sports; a lot of money pounded MIA. IND overachieved last year and I really like MIA +3.5. I expect OLG to move the line to -3 tomorrow morning.

7 CLE +7.5 V
This is the game that I was not so sure about, but the line sits at -6.5 at Pinnacle Sports and getting more than a touchdown is too good to be true. Besides, BAL tends to play according to their opponent's level. I like a divisional dog at +7.5.

10 TB +5.0 H
Betting on a divisional home dog getting +5.0 is a no-brainer. The line came down to 3 from 3.5 at most sites, which made me more certain that +5.0 has great value.

13 NYG +5.5 H
Lots of money kept pounding NYG and the line came down to +4. However, OLG still gives NYG +5.5 and I love it. I tend to like home dogs that get more than +4.0.

Ticket #1
3 KC -2.5 H
4 MIA +3.5 V
7 CLE +7.5 V
10 TB +5.0 H
13 NYG +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #2
1 STL +7.5 V
4 MIA +3.5 V
7 CLE +7.5 V
10 TB +5.0 H
13 NYG +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #3
1 STL +7.5 V
3 KC -2.5 H
7 CLE +7.5 V
10 TB +5.0 H
13 NYG +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #4
1 STL +7.5 V
3 KC -2.5 H
4 MIA +3.5 V
10 TB +5.0 H
13 NYG +5.5 H
Risking 0.4 units to win 7.6 units

Ticket #5
1 STL +7.5 V
3 KC -2.5 H
4 MIA +3.5 V
7 CLE +7.5 V
13 NYG +5.5 H
Risking 0.3 units to win 5.7 units

Ticket #6
1 STL +7.5 V
3 KC -2.5 H
4 MIA +3.5 V
7 CLE +7.5 V
10 TB +5.0 H
Risking 0.4 units to win 7.6 units

Total: risking 2 units to win 38 units

Deol · 09-14-13, 11:02 AM

Why not pound the 2 biggest line discrepancies? For this week TB+5 and MIA+3.5 pays +150 online with additional point spread. What does OLG pay for a 2 team Point spread, prolly about the same im guessing? Are you really getting better value? Not hating, just wondering?

dnwjdl · 09-14-13, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by Deol

Why not pound the 2 biggest line discrepancies? For this week TB+5 and MIA+3.5 pays +150 online with additional point spread. What does OLG pay for a 2 team Point spread, prolly about the same im guessing? Are you really getting better value? Not hating, just wondering?

OLG pays only +100 for 2 team parlays.

dnwjdl · 09-14-13, 11:29 AM

Other leans that I did not play:

8 CAR -2.5 V
You can only get CAR -3 at most sites and ML at -150. I chose not to play this because I didn't like small road favorites.

14 SEA -2.0 H
SEA went perfect at home last year and destroyed SF 42:13 in Week 16. I don't think it will be a blowout like last time, but SEA will pull off a close one by a field goal and cover the spread.

dnwjdl · 09-15-13, 09:06 AM

I'm glad I played my tickets last night. The new lines came out this morning and they all moved in my favor.

Here are some of the lines that I like today. I'm not so sure if I'm going to play more tickets yet.

10 TB +4 H
I expect a close game decided within 4 points, so I like TB +4 at home.

11 ARZ +3 H
Pinnacle Sports has ARZ as a +1 underdog. DET has not convinced yet to cover -3 away from home. I see a lot of value in ARZ +3 at home. I think DET will find a way to lose this game.

12 JAK +6 V
Most sports betting sites have JAK +4.5. I personally hate betting on JAK, but OAK should never be favored by 6 points. This is the pick that I am least confident about.

13 NYG +5.5 H
I expect a close game decided within 4 points. I like NYG getting 5.5 points at home.

14 SEA -2.0 H
SEA were perfect at home last season and I love the price of only -2.

15 PIT +7.0 A
This is a classic over-reaction after Week 1. PIT look horrendous last week, losing to TEN at home. However, I expect a close divisional game on a Monday night, and getting +7.0 is a gift. The line came down to +6.5 at most sites.

dnwjdl · 09-15-13, 09:22 AM

I also like

8 CAR -3.0 V
A lot of money pounded CAR this morning, moving the line to -3.5. I think it might even move to -4 before the kickoff. I like CAR -3.0.

dnwjdl · 09-15-13, 08:45 PM

Week 1: round robin 5's x 6 5/6 +4 units
1 BUF +11 H
4 NYJ +4.5 H
6 CAR +4.5 H
12 ARZ +4.5 A
14 PHI +4.5 A
15 SD +5.5 H

Week 2: round of robin 5's x 6 3/6 -2 units
1 STL +7.5 V
3 KC -2.5 H
4 MIA +3.5 V
7 CLE +7.5 V
10 TB +5.0 H
13 NYG +5.5 H

YTD +2 units
Winning percentage: 8/12 = 67%

It was not even close today, getting only 3 out of 6. I felt good about getting excellent lines on Sat, but you need a little bit of luck to win these parlays. I'm glad I'm still on a free roll for next week though.