Strategy ? for the board

[rkellyatrecess]

I am in a season-long, point spread competition. The buy-in is relatively small. The lines that we are given are the opening lines and we don't have to submit the picks until just before the first game of the week.

My question is: should I just bet whichever way the line moves and, essential, bet on Vegas' linemaking abilities?

Or should I try to cap the original numbers? Or some other way?

[MobFade]

Lines where a team becomes favored by 2.5 - 7 additional points from the opening line and closes as a favorite are 121-85, 58.7% ATS.

[husky]

Good stat. Not many plays but a good %

[husky]

What would the numbers be if it were 1.5 or 2 points of movement? Does the % go down dramatically?

[MobFade]

What would the numbers be if it were 1.5 or 2 points of movement? Does the % go down dramatically?

138-169, 44.9% if you bet the team that enjoyed -1.5 to -2 points of line movement. It quickly becomes positive at it's peak of -3, then tapers off as it gets chalkier.

Conversely, betting dogs that get +1.5 to +2 points (so pretty much the opposite of the 138-169, 44.9%) is 268-255, 51.2%. However, there has been a marked reversal in this trend the past 3 years (see below), which is part of why I didn't include these numbers in a seperate system.

[husky]

Great stuff Mob. Thank you! Can I ask what your opinion is on public betting percentages and whether or not to even look at it?