Comparative Similarity Betting Model - 2013-2014 NFL Picks

[aguynamedgeoff]

Hey All,

In the offseason I worked on a new football model for spread betting and I'll be posting my picks here throughout the year for tracking purposes. I have backtested 5 seasons and the results are below. This season is purely a test run, but I will be betting a on all the picks at $10 per unit to make it interesting. There are 3 unit sizes depending on the confidence of the model. Feel free to tail the picks but do so at your own risk, there are no guarantees!

Results:

2008:
1* - 37-38
2* - 11-10
3* - 4-3
-4.2 units

2009:
1* - 37-43
2* - 19-15
3* - 9-5
-4.5 units

2010:
1* - 49-25
2* - 17-5
3* - 6-4
+30.8 units

2011:
1* - 44-29
2* - 16-10
3* - 5-2
+17.5 units

2012:
1* - 42-34
2* - 16-6
3* - 5-5
+11.7 units

Model Basics:

The model looks at each game as a combination of both team's "profiles" (essentially a collection of stats) and compares the current game to a database of past seasons. Through a set of parameters, it identifies similar matchups and calculates the average score difference in those games. If it is significantly different from the line for the current game, then it is selected to be bet. Depending on the confidence of the model is it either a 1*, 2* or 3* game. What I believe is the novel idea in the model is the method used for comparison to the historical games, but for obvious reasons I won't be disclosing what it is.

In order to establish team profiles, I won't be posting any picks until week 3. Picks will generally be posted earlier on in the week.

Good luck in 2013-2014!

[aguynamedgeoff]

Week 3 is finally here!

Over the past few weeks I've applied a similar method to O/U as well and although I haven't spent as much time on it I'll be posting those picks as well for tracking purposes.

For the sake of interest here are the back tested results on O/U:

2008:
1* - 55-35
2* - 29-15
3* - 17-6
+34.9 units

2009:
1* - 40-35
2* - 14-24
3* - 7-7
-11.1 units

2010:
1* - 29-22
2* - 15-14
3* - 10-9
+3.6 units

2011:
1* - 33-37
2* - 19-22
3* - 6-7
-13.8 units

2012:
1* - 37-25
2* - 22-12
3* - 17-8
+23.4 units

So not all that impressive but interesting enough for me to try it out.

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As the season progresses there will be more picks each week as the team "profiles" become more established. This hold true for our first week as there are only 1 bet for each system:

1* - NY Jets -2.5
1* - Buffalo/NYJ O39

I think God must be playing a cruel joke on me by making me bet on the Jets after all that work in the offseason!

Good luck this week.

[aguynamedgeoff]

Off to a good start:

1* - NY Jets -2.5
1* - Buffalo/NYJ O39


Spread:
1* - 1-0

OU:
1* - 1-0

This weeks picks are:
2* Baltimore -3.5
1* Cleveland +4
1* Arizona +2.5
2* NYJ +3.5
1* New Orleans -6.5
1* Jacksonville +9.5

1* Seattle/Houston U42.5
2* Indianapolis/Jacksonville O42.5

Good luck this week.

[Sarunas]

model on nfl make a shit

but! nfl on model make sexual milks on to forehead of model!

[MobFade]

Picks look good but you need to be getting better numbers by anticipating line movement.

I would use Public Bets early in the week to see where most bets are coming in, and The Consensus once it's up mid-week to see where the actual money is at. Also watch for any reverse line movement that can't be explained by either of these as that sometimes exists. Money and sharps move lines and the 2 are usually the same thing. You could have gotten better numbers on BAL, ARI, and NYJ if you had seen where the money was coming in at and predicted the lines would get less favorable for those teams as the week went on.

[Sarunas]

Picks look good but you need to be getting better numbers by anticipating line movement.

I would use Public Bets early in the week to see where most bets are coming in, and The Consensus once it's up mid-week to see where the actual money is at. Also watch for any reverse line movement that can't be explained by either of these as that sometimes exists. Money and sharps move lines and the 2 are usually the same thing. You could have gotten better numbers on BAL, ARI, and NYJ if you had seen where the money was coming in at and predicted the lines would get less favorable for those teams as the week went on.

not make listen on this. is waste of the hours! remembers! nfl is waste of the hours. in all the sport is good. but! in nfl is so much waste

make model on other thing

[aguynamedgeoff]

Picks look good but you need to be getting better numbers by anticipating line movement.

I would use Public Bets early in the week to see where most bets are coming in, and The Consensus once it's up mid-week to see where the actual money is at. Also watch for any reverse line movement that can't be explained by either of these as that sometimes exists. Money and sharps move lines and the 2 are usually the same thing. You could have gotten better numbers on BAL, ARI, and NYJ if you had seen where the money was coming in at and predicted the lines would get less favorable for those teams as the week went on.

Thanks for the tip I'll definitely check this out in the coming weeks, appreciate you taking the time to help.

[aguynamedgeoff]

Not a great week last week with none of the 2* hitting:

2* Baltimore -3.5
1* Cleveland +4
1* Arizona +2.5
2* NYJ +3.5
1* New Orleans -6.5
1* Jacksonville +9.5

1* Seattle/Houston U42.5
2* Indianapolis/Jacksonville O42.5

Spread:
1* - 4-1
2* - 0-2

OU:
1* - 1-1
2* - 0-1

Gotta post this weeks picks early:
1* - Hou +7
1* - Ind + 3
1* - Ari + 1

1* - Car/Ari Over 42
1* - Phi/NYG Under 54.5
2* - KC/Ten O39.5

Good luck this week.

[aguynamedgeoff]

Last Week:

1* - Hou +7
1* - Ind + 3
1* - Ari + 1

1* - Car/Ari Over 42
1* - Phi/NYG Under 54.5
2* - KC/Ten O39.5

Spread:
1* - 6-2
2* - 0-2

OU:
1* - 1-3
2* - 1-1

This Week:
1* - KC -9.5
1* - NE -2
1* - GB -3
1* - Ind -1
2* - Phi -1

1* - Ten/Sea O40.5

Good luck this week.

[aguynamedgeoff]

Last Week:
1* - KC -9.5
1* - NE -2
1* - GB -3
1* - Ind -1
2* - Phi -1

1* - Ten/Sea O40.5

Spread:
1* - 8-4
2* - 1-2

OU:
1* - 1-4
2* - 1-1

This Week:
1* - Car -6
1* - Det -2.5
1* - Ten +3
1* - Pit -1
2* - Cle +10
2* - NYJ +3
2* - Min +3

1* - Buf/Mia U42.5
1* - Cle/GB U46
1* - Stl/Car O42
1* - SF/Ten U39.5
1* - Min/NYG U47
2* - Sea/Ari O40.5
3* - Chi/Was U50.5

[aguynamedgeoff]

Last Week:
1* - Car -6
1* - Det -2.5
1* - Ten +3
1* - Pit -1
2* - Cle +10
2* - NYJ +3
2* - Min +3

Spread:
1* - 10-6
2* - 2-4

This Week:
1* - Oak +3
1* - Mia +7
1* - Buf +11.5
2* - Jac + 16

Not going to bother with the over/under anymore.

Good luck this week.

[aguynamedgeoff]

1* - Oak +3
1* - Mia +7
1* - Buf +11.5
2* - Jac + 16

Spread:
1* - 11-8
2* - 2-5

This Week:
1* Pit+7
1* SD pk
1* Chi +11
2* Phi +2.5
2* TB +16.5

[aguynamedgeoff]

This Week:
1* Pit+7
1* SD pk
1* Chi +11
2* Phi +2.5
2* TB +16.5

Spread:
1* - 12-10
2* - 4-5

This Week:
1* Min +1.5
1* Car +6.5
2* Atl +6.5
2* Stl +10
2* Oak +7
2* Jac +13
3* TB +3

[aguynamedgeoff]

Last Week:
1* Min +1.5
1* Car +6.5
2* Atl +6.5
2* Stl +10
2* Oak +7
2* Jac +13
3* TB +3

Spread:
1* - 14-10
2* - 7-6
3* - 1-0

This Week:
1* Hou -6.5
1* NO -3
1* Was +3.5
1* Min +13.5
1* Chi -2.5
2* Car -2.5
2* GB +6
2* Ten +2.5
2* TB +1.5

[Ytown6]

where are you Geoff? Coming off a hot week I was looking for your picks