Calmeat NFL Picks 2013

[calmeat]

Here we go again!. Last year went very well hoping to do the same this year. I play a lot of teasers and use 5dimes. Week 1 and 2 i don't count towards the overall record. Good Luck all. Oh and any and all sbr points are welcome, gotta renew the pro membership . I will Post my sheet next week. This week the sheet is based on last years stats so there are some games that are way off due to coaching and roster changes.

[calmeat]

My Plays (so far)
4tm 8.5 Tease BAL+17.5/NEP-2.5/ATL+11.5/IND-2 1u (+168)
7tm 9pt Tease NEP-1.5/ATL+12/KC+5.5/CLE+9/IND-1/STL+4.5/HOU+5.5 1u(+385)
11tm 8.5 pt Tease BAL+17.5/NEP-2.5/ATL+11.5/TB+5/KC+5/CLE+8.5/SEA+5/IND-2/STL+4/GB+13/HOU+4.5 .5u(+1375)

[calmeat]

Consensus picks for week 1
BUF +10.5
TEN +7
CLE -1
OAK +10
GBP +5
SD +5.5

[calmeat]

Ok here is the sheet. Remember its week 1 and this system is a stat based system and since its week 1 we revert to last year final stats. Lots have changed in the offseason so remember that before pulling the trigger on anything. In the above posts i have my plays for the week which as you can see are teasers so im going the safer route this week.

[Coach Potato]

good luck this season calmeat. what were ur numbers for last season?

[calmeat]

Couch,
So my system didn't do so well last year 121-127 48.79% ATS
The consensus picks though did well at 52-39 ATS 57.14% ATS

Where i made my money last year what large teasers with both consensus picks and some of my system plays.
at week 15 my plays were 37-50 42.53% +39.29u

[calmeat]

Going with BAL +13.5 Over 42 Tease 1u

[calmeat]

Damn CLE killed all the teasers. Oh well 1 more week till we start for real!

[calmeat]

Here we go again!. Last year went very well hoping to do the same this year. I play a lot of teasers and use 5dimes. Week 1 and 2 i don't count towards the overall record. Good Luck all. Oh and any and all sbr points are welcome, gotta renew the pro membership . I will Post my sheet next week. This week the sheet is based on last years stats so there are some games that are way off due to coaching and roster changes.

Also to Note that the consensus picks are with Statsationals picks.

This week Stats went 10-2 pretty good for week 1 ha, of course his 2 losses were 2 of the consensus picks. Oh well we will only get better.

[calmeat]

week 2 sheet. Blue is consensus picks. 2nd week is still not ready to be used as system bets so tread lightly

[calmeat]

My Plays

3tm 7.5pt Tease DAL+10/DET+7.5/DEN+3 1u(+127)
7tm 8.5 Tease NYJ+21.5/SD+17.5/IND+6/STL+16/DAL+11/DET+8.5/DEN+4 2u(+440)
9tm 7.5pt Tease NEP-6.5/IND+4/BUF+9/STL+14/GB-2.5/DAL+9/NOS+3/DET+6.5/DEN+2 .5u(+1685)

[calmeat]

My plays for the week finished and in the + so good week. Next week is the First true week i will be keeping record.

[Coach Potato]

Wat book do u use for ur large teasers calmeat?

[calmeat]

i use 5dimes. They have great teasers options.

[calmeat]

YTD
ML 0-0 0%, ATS 0-0 0%, O/U 0-0 0%
Consensus Picks ATS 0-0 0%

Week 3


Consensus Picks
SD +3
ARI +7.5
DET +1.5
ATL +3
IND +10.5

======================================== =========
System Bets

Straight
IND +10.5 (-110) .5u
SD +3 (-110) .5u

Parlay


Tease
7pt IND+18.5/SD+10/ARI+16 (+142) 1u

Home Dog ML


My Plays (so far)
5tm Parlay PHI-2.5/GB-2.5/IND+10.5/BUF+3/CHI-2.5 (+1812) .5u
2tm 6pt Tease SD+9/IND+17.5 (-105) 1u
3tm 7pt Tease SD+10/ARI+16/IND+18.5 (+142) 1u
7tm 10pt Tease SD+13/ARI+19/DET+11/ATL+11/IND+21.5/BUF+11/DEN-6.5 (+340) 1u
14tm Parlay PHI/SD/MIN/NEP/HOU/DAL/ARI/GB/NYG/SF/SEA/BUF/CHI/DEN (+113900) .25u (insane if this hits)
- added
5tm 6.5pt Tease PHIOv43.5/MIN+1/BUF+7.5/CHI+4/DEN-10 (+385) 1u
2tm Par MIN-5.5/MIN Under 40.5 (+253) .75u
3tm 6.5pt Tease MIN +.5/SEA-12/DEN-10 (+150) 2u

[calmeat]

adding to my plays
10tm Par SD/MIN/NEP/HOU/DAL/GB/NYG/SF/SEA/DEN (+4725) .25u

[cankid]

gluck with the card this week

[calmeat]

adding to my plays
2tm 7.5 pt tease Den-9.5 Over 41.5 (-142) .5u

[calmeat]

I Will repost sheet for week 4 tomorrow.

[calmeat]

Week 4 My Play 6pt Tease STL +9.5 Under 48.5 (-105) .5u

[calmeat]

Results Week 3
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 5-9 35.71%
ATS = 5-9 35.71%
O/U = 7-7 50%

Consensus Picks
ML = 0-3 0%
ATS = 2-2 50%
O/U = 3-2 60%

System Plays
1-1 50% -.2u

My Plays
2-8 20% -5.25u

Week 3
System
ML = 5-9
ATS = 5-9
O/U = 7-7

Consensus Picks
ML = 0-3
ATS = 2-2
O/U = 3-2

[calmeat]

Gotta love KC at home with giants lineman questionable. Can you imagine how bad the backups are if they cant start in that O line? KC D line is one of the best so its gonna be another long week for giants Fan.

One stat i like to look at is pts per 100 yards.
the stat is a little skewed right now since one teams matchups first 3 weeks could have been vs bums but ill roll with it
For offense 6pts per 100 is avg 7pts is above avg.
For Def 6pts per 100 surrendered is avg. 7 pts is below avg.

NYG score 5.4 pts per 100 yards and KC D gives up 3.7 pts for every 100yds they surrender. Advantage KC
KC scores 7.1 pts per 100 yrds gained and NYG give up 10pts per 100 yrds surrendered. ADV KC
Looking at that KC has the upperhand in this one.

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks

YTD
ML 5-9 35.71%, ATS 5-9 35.71%, O/U 7-7 50%
Consensus Picks ATS 2-2 50%

Week 4

[calmeat]

Consensus Picks
IND -8.5
ARI +2.5
CHI +3
TEN -3.5

======================================== =========
System Bets

Straight
ARI +2.5 (-110) .5u
CHI +3 (-110) .5u

Parlay
ARI+2.5/CHI+3 .5u

Tease
6pt ARI+8.5/CHI+9 (-105) 1u
7pt ARI+9.5/CHI+10/TEN+4.5 (+142) 1u

Home Dog ML
NoPlays

My Plays (so far)
2tm 6pt Tease STL+9.5/Un 48.5 (-105) .5u LOSS
3tm 7pt Tease ARI+9.5/CHI+10/TEN+4.5 (+142) 1u
4tm 10.5pt Tease IND+1/CHI+13/TEN+7/PHI+22.5 (+124) 1u
7tm 7.5pt Tease CIN+3.5/IND-2/SEA+7.5/ARI+8.5/CHI+10/KC+3.5/OAK+11 (+590).5u
13tm 12pt Tease BAL+9/CIN+8/IND+2.5/SEA+12/ARI+13/CHI+14.5/KC+8/TEN+8.5/DAL+10.5/OAK+15.5/DENpk/ATL+11/NOS+5 (+850) .25u
10tm ML Parlay BAL/CIN/IND/SEA/ARI/CHI/KC/TEN/DEN/NOS (+10650) .27u

[calmeat]

======================================== ===========
Results Week 4
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 14-15 48.28%
ATS = 14-15 48.28%
O/U = 16-13 55.17%

Consensus Picks
ML = 3-4 42.86%
ATS = 5-3 62.50%
O/U = 7-2 77.78%

System Plays
4-2 66.67% +2.17u

My Plays
3-13 18.75% -6.53u

Week 4
System
ML = 9-6
ATS = 9-6
O/U = 9-6

Consensus Picks
ML = 3-1
ATS = 3-1
O/U = 4-0

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks

YTD
ML 14-15 48.28%, ATS 14-15 48.28%, O/U 16-13 55.17%
Consensus Picks ATS 2-2 50%

Week 5


Consensus Picks
CHI pk
PHI +2
TEN +3
HOU +6.5

======================================== =========
System Bets

Straight
CHI pk (-110) .5u
PHI +2 (-110) .5u

Parlay

Tease
6pt CHI+6/PHI+8 (-105) 1u
7pt CHI+7/PHI+9/TEN+9.5 (+142) 1u

Home Dog ML
NoPlays

My Plays (so far)
CHI pk (-110) .5u
PHI +2 (-110) .5u
7pt CHI+7/PHI+9/TEN+9.5 (+142) 1u
8tm 8.5pt Tease TEN+11/BAL+11.5/DET+16/CHI+8.5/PHI+9.5/CAR+7/SD+4.5/ATL-1.5 (+595) .5u
7tm Parlay BAL/STL/DET/PHI/CAR/SD/ATL (+6430) .25u
-added
2tm 6.5 pt Tease CLE+3/CLE Under 47.5 (-115) .5u LOSS
5tm 10pt Tease SEA+7.5/PHI+10/SD+6/HOU+17/ATL-.5 (+187) .5

[calmeat]

adding last play to

My plays
5tm 8pt tease GB-1/PHI+8/DEN-.5/HOU+15/ATL-2.5 (+255)1.5u

Also i will be adding these 2 for the season

Season Plays
Open Parlay 15tm .25u
1. ATL ML -460

Open 15tm 8.5pt Tease (+4050) .25u
1. ATL -2

[calmeat]

Good luck all!

[calmeat]

not a good week we will get them next week
Results Week 5
=========================
Overall
System
ML = 21-22 48.84%
ATS = 19-24 44.19%
O/U = 21-21 50%

Consensus Picks
ML = 5-6 45.45%
ATS = 6-6 50%
O/U = 8-5 61.54%

System Plays
5-5 50% +.37u

My Plays
4-20 16.67% -10.99u

Week 5
System
ML = 7-7
ATS = 5-9
O/U = 5-8

Consensus Picks
ML = 2-2
ATS = 1-3
O/U = 1-3

[calmeat]

ML 21-22 48.28%, ATS 19-24 44.19%, O/U 21-21 50%
Consensus Picks ATS 6-6 50%

Week 6


Consensus Picks
TEN +13.5
OAK +8
ARI +11.5
DET -2.5
SD +2.5

======================================== =========
System Bets

Straight
TEN +13.5 (-110) .5u
OAK +8 (-110) .5u

Parlay

Tease
6pt TEN+20.5/OAK+15.5 (-105) 1u


Home Dog ML
NoPlays

My Plays (so far)
TEN +13.5 (-110) .25u
OAK +8 (-110) .25u
CHI -7 (-120) .5u
2tm 6pt Tease TEN+20.5/OAK+15.5 (-105) .5u
5tm 9pt Tease CHI+.5/OAK+18.5/BAL+11/NOS+11.5/DAL+3.5 (+210) 1u
8tm 10pt Tease OAK+19.5/BAL+12/DET+7.5/HOU+1.5/TEN+24.5/ARI+22.5/WSH+15.5/SD+10 (+445) .5u
10tm Parlay CHI/KC/PHI/DET/MIN/HOU/PIT/SEA/DEN/DAL (+3675) .275u

[calmeat]

Calmeat's System Picks

YTD
ML 33-24 57.89%, ATS 26-32 44.83%, O/U 28-29 49.12%
Consensus Picks ATS 9-8 52.94%

Week 7

[calmeat]

System Bets

Straight
NYJ +3.5 (-110) .25u
STL +6.5 (-110) .25u

Parlay

Tease
7pt NYJ+10.5/STL+14/ARI+11 (+142) .5u


Home Dog ML
NoPlays

My Plays (so far)
NYJ +3.5 (-110) .25u
STL +6.5 (-110) .25u
3tm 7pt Tease NYJ+10.5/STL+14/ARI+11 (+142) .5u
4tm 7.5pt Tease SD-1.5/KC+.5/CHI+7.5/BAL+8.5 (+200)1u
13tm 10.5 Tease ARI+15.5/NYJ+14/SD+1.5/KC+3.5/CIN+13/BUF+19.5/CHI+10.5/PHI+8/STL+17.5/TB+19/SF+6.5/CEL+22/BAL+11.5 (+1400) .25u

[calmeat]

[calmeat]

Consensus
MIA+3
ATL+7.5
BUF+3
PHI+2.5
PIT+6.5
CHI+10.5

[calmeat]

Overall (wk3-EOS)
	W	L	%
ML	57	36	61.29%
ATS	43	54	44.33%
O/U	53	44	54.64%

Consensus
OAK +7
STL +9.5
ATL +6
CHI pk