Serious Discussion: When do you buy the .5 point in NFL?

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  • JuniorAnalyst
    SBR MVP
    • 03-21-11
    • 2148

    #1
    Serious Discussion: When do you buy the .5 point in NFL?
    obviously its hard enough to win long term betting 11 to win 10
    so betting 12 to win 10 is just digging a deeper hole but is there a situation that buying the .5 point is profitable long term?

    if lets say the Miami Dolphins are a 3.5 fav at home against the Washington Redskins

    Dolphins -3.5
    Redskins +3.5

    If you capped the game in favor of the skins then no problem the +3.5 is great.

    but if i can buy the dolphins to -3 for -120 to protect myself of the 3 what are the guidelines to making this wager.

    i guess if you capped the game at dolphins -3 plus 2.5 point for home field (-5.5) then you can play the number at -3(-120)

    I want to figure this stuff out before the season start
  • iwantcougars
    SBR MVP
    • 09-29-09
    • 2156

    #2
    i would buy .5, if it was +3 to get it +3.5. i would let ir ride if it was -3.5 or parlay the ml with another wager
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    • iwantcougars
      SBR MVP
      • 09-29-09
      • 2156

      #3
      in my experience lowering half point to the number on a favorite, never have worked, i would rather use a teaser or play the ml
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      • Itsamazing777
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-14-12
        • 12602

        #4
        I always take it
        Comment
        • suicidekings
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-23-09
          • 9962

          #5
          Strictly from a value perspective, use the half point calculator (or a push chart like the one below) to determine when the price you're paying is better/worse than what that half point is actually worth. Not all half points are worth the same. To use the push chart, you need to understand how they're derived, what they mean, and how to translate between probabilities and pricing on lines. It's a lot more work, but you really need to understand how it works first before you start relying on it. Explanations are are available several places online and in several books. Well worth the time invested.

          Click image for larger version

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          Comment
          • BIGSACK
            SBR High Roller
            • 06-05-13
            • 234

            #6
            On or off to 3 and 7, but in vegas most casinos don't let you buy .5 on 3 or 7
            Comment
            • pologq
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 10-07-12
              • 19899

              #7
              even some sites will even take more juice when going from 3 to 3.5 or 6.5 to 7 or 7 to 7.5. if i think the underdog is a good value let's say at getting 4 and the price is -105, i sometimes will take the .5 pt to 4.5 and the payout becomes -115, depending on the site.

              i will take it at 3 and 7 as mentioned only if it doesn't bring me below -120.
              Comment
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