Anyone wanna help me out

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  • keel44
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-09
    • 3363

    #1
    Anyone wanna help me out
    O.K. I am lazy. I was looking into a little technique. The way I figure it. The NFL lines are really really sharp.

    The way NFL games can go.... penalties, fumbles, tipped balls, missed tackles, you name it. I was going to take the underdog moneyline of every game +6.5 to +1. So I looked at previous years, I just eyeballed over the results. I thought it was pretty darn good. If I need a slight money management technique instead of flat betting, so be it.

    So, I was wondering if anybody wants to back test this with the closing line of course. You can pm me or post here. I would be willing to pay for your efforts. Maybe somebody already has this data and my theory is a losing one, I don't know?


    my would be signature: "Press when your hot, chase when your not"
  • keel44
    SBR MVP
    • 08-01-09
    • 3363

    #2
    O.K. after further looking, it seems that maybe it will be 40%. 40% may even be pushing it. I thought it would be better, but what do I know.
    Comment
    • chopperocker
      SBR MVP
      • 08-16-09
      • 1784

      #3
      Road Dogs are 29-28 SU when facing a Pre-BYE week Home Fav since '08. try running your query from +6.5 to +2.5 on Road Dogs and you should get better results. NFC East Dogs vs NFC East have good SU results in recent years also.
      Comment
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