How to hedge this super bowl bet

spongerat · 01-19-09, 02:43 PM

it all depends on how much you want guarenteed and how much you want to risk. To hedge you are going to have to bet the Steelers Moneyline. There isn't a ton of free money in this hedge situation because I'm sure the steelers moneyline is over -200 or something.

ok just looked and its -250
so bet 250 on steelers to win 100
steelers win you win 100 lose 50 = +50
steelers lose, you win 325 lose 250 = +75

Robust · 01-19-09, 03:01 PM

about the only thing i would consider with a ML bet is 125 to win $50. If pitt wins, you get your money back. Or $200 for arizona.

If you want a guarenteed win of "x" amount, post so we can do the math. But the ML is nasty.

Robust

Husker36 · 01-19-09, 03:10 PM

Someone posted this......

"Did you know that the Steelers and Cowboys game in 1996 was the last time a VEGAS SPREAD came into play.

Thats right, whoever you like just play that team. It has been 13 years now since the Vegas spread for the dog ever mattered. The Steelers were 12 points as a dog they covered, yet Dallas won in 96.

Every game after that either the dog WON outright or the fav won by the points."

So in my opinion...... I would just let the bet ride..... or place another bet on the Steelers -6.5. You have to bet too much on the ML and I'm guessing you want to walk away with more than 50 bucks. BUT if the Steelers win by a FG then you lose both......

Robust · 01-19-09, 05:24 PM

been thinking a little more on this and i would leave it alone.. $50 ain't much for a $350 payout.

but if you must guarentee a win (tho small cuz of the moneyline):

bet the pit ML @ 285.71 to win 114.28.

If arizona wins, you get 350-285.71= 64.29
If Pit wins, you get 114.28-50=64.28

This bet ensures a $64 and change win.. and you get to enjoy the game!!

good luck to you!

Robust

G's pks · 01-19-09, 06:13 PM

[quote=Robust;1424210]been thinking a little more on this and i would leave it alone.. $50 ain't much for a $350 payout.

but if you must guarentee a win (tho small cuz of the moneyline):

bet the pit ML @ 285.71 to win 114.28.

If arizona wins, you get 350-285.71= 64.29
If Pit wins, you get 114.28-50=64.28

This bet ensures a $64 and change win.. and you get to enjoy the game!!

good luck to you!

Great work not that I have this bet but these are the kinds of posts we need on sbr!

Wheell · 01-19-09, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Husker36

Someone posted this......

"Did you know that the Steelers and Cowboys game in 1996 was the last time a VEGAS SPREAD came into play.

Thats right, whoever you like just play that team. It has been 13 years now since the Vegas spread for the dog ever mattered. The Steelers were 12 points as a dog they covered, yet Dallas won in 96.

Every game after that either the dog WON outright or the fav won by the points."

So in my opinion...... I would just let the bet ride..... or place another bet on the Steelers -6.5. You have to bet too much on the ML and I'm guessing you want to walk away with more than 50 bucks. BUT if the Steelers win by a FG then you lose both......

Is there any reason the Eagles-Patriots and Panthers-Patriots games are not being listed? Also, The Packers-Patriots and Titans-Rams both pushed.

Robust · 01-19-09, 07:24 PM

doh! just saw the payout was 325, not 350..

but you get the idea.. do the math.. even it out and win no matter what!

good luck!

Robust

patsfan2727 · 01-19-09, 07:31 PM

this is like deal or no deal. you're basically guaranteeing yourself a small win as opposed to going for the big win. if you are a pure profit gambler, take the option above. if you are an intuitive emotional bettor, stick with your instinct and you may win $300!

Robust · 01-19-09, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by patsfan2727

this is like deal or no deal. you're basically guaranteeing yourself a small win as opposed to going for the big win. if you are a pure profit gambler, take the option above. if you are an intuitive emotional bettor, stick with your instinct and you may win $300!

i'd go for the 325!

$50 aint alot to lose for that payout.. but the guy said he needed money, so.... options..

Robust

sprasad03 · 01-20-09, 08:09 PM

ya well this is the situation i started with a bankroll of 100 and im up at 400 now. i dont feel like winning 50 lol after i got a chance to win 325, i think arizona will win straight up as well. However, i thought there would be a way to get at least half but if not, i think i will ride it out, or place enough on steelers to get my 50 back.