Line movements

[boardy]

Hi Guys,

First post here.

Wondering if anyone can help with line movements.

Specifically, how a line movement affects the probability of a side clearing the spread.

Say in the NFL we rate a side as 58% to clear -2.5, is there a way to reasonably accurately predict the % of the side clearing as the line moves and becomes greater?

Looking at doing this for several different sports with key numbers, such as NFL.

Thanks.

[Noleafclover]

No, or if there is, its an art mastered by few and a secret deeply kept. If there were an easy science, we'd all be millionaires, wouldn't we?

Line movement is a complicated subject, I will say a few things:

1) You want to be aware of reverse line movement, where money comes in on one side but that side's odds improve. This is the bookmakers taking a position on a bet, and they tend to win more often in the long-run, they have lots of bright minds working together. An example is the Silva-Weidman fight, money came in on Silva, but his odds improved, and Weidman knocked him out.

2) NFL is probably the sport I'm least concerned with line movement, because of the amount of uneducated bettors involved.

3) But the question to always ask yourself when a line moves against you is: for what reason do these other dudes like the other team, and do I agree? if you can't create a story for why people like the other team, you should go back and do more homework until you can (first place to check is updated injury information). But don't be SO AFRAID of line movement if you can create a reasonable story that you disagree with. For example, I bet the Spurs against the spread 3 of their 4 games against Memphis, despite some line movements against me, because I thought Memphis was hyped coming off a win over a struggling OKC, and the Spurs were the better team. There was a lot of media frenzy about Memphis being REALLY strong, so this explained the line movement - people liked memphis more than they had a right to - and I won 2 of my 3 bets.

4) You do want to be aware, specifically of media and gambling general opinions, so that you can predict line movement to get the best line, of course.

[Mr Handicapable]

I've been doing this a long time and I always think line movement is a little overrated. If you have a big public play like the Miami Heat or GB Packers then of course its important to play with them early or fade them late when the line is inflated to get your best line. Overall though...you need be able to cap your own plays and determine the value from there....or atleast follow a capper you trust thats done that consistently.

To me the NFL is harder and harder to beat every year...the lines are tight and key guys swap teams so often that guys don't build as much chemistry together. I like totals better and even college totals where the books have to put up so many more lines that their chances of making mistakes really increases. The NFL player props for the game are nice too. Had a 17-2 streak during the 2011 season on here. If you know fantasy football matchups then you can usually guestimate how much a damage a particular player will do against that defense. For example....had max bets on 2 sites in 2011 on Marshawn Lynch over 88 yds (or 80 something?) on a Thurs. home game vs Philly. Philly had the "dream" team coming into the season and had already crashed hard and was basically eliminated at 4-7 or something. Perfect storm of conditions made it an easy easy winner and Lynch went over 100 yds in the 2Q. I prob broke even at best on the NFL props last year so keep that in mind but they're still much more beatable imo than the regular lines.

[Speedy88]

Keep an eye on Pinnys line moves. Sharpest bookl around.