GoldGlove's NFL season long thread | Picks, write-ups, etc

GoldGlove · 06-20-13, 04:34 AM

Regular season wins bets:

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 8.5 wins @ -103
Stake: 3u

Andrew Luck is great, I know, but Colts' last season performance will be extremly hard to sustain. Out of the 11 W's, there were 6 wins by 4 or less points and another one came in OT. Out of their 5 L's, 3 were blowouts with a B, one was a 12 point difference and also lost to the Jaguars. Not once the Colts needed last minute winning drives and Luck delivered it. I love the kid, but it's going to be a looong season for Indy. Let's check their schedule:

Home: Oakland, Miami, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville
Away: San Francisco, Jacksonville, San Diego, Houston, Tennessee, Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas City

Now, the bad part for this bet is that they play against KC and Jax in the final 2 weeks of the season and if somehow they'll be in contention for the playoffs, ost certainly KC and Jax won't be and will probably mail it in. Realistically speaking, how many home wins do you think Indy will have? I say MAYBE 4: Oakland, St. Louis, Tennessee and Jax, altough St. Louis is a tough nut to crack. Away? Maybe another 4: Jax, SD, Arizona, KC. So this 8.5 line is pretty much accurate. But due to the unreal luck (see what I did there?) that they've had last season, I find it hard to believe that they'll be as lucky this season.

Will add more over the next days.

GoldGlove · 06-24-13, 06:02 AM

Detroit Lions UNDER 8 wins @ -128
Stake: 2u

The Lions have the 2nd toughest SOS next season, their opponents had a combined 138-118 record last season. Stafford's stats look good, but his 2012 numbers are worse than 2 seasons ago, with only 20-17 TD's-INT's. Detroit's schedule:

Home: Minnesota, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants
Away: Arizona, Washington, Green Bay, Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Minnesota

I can't see where those 9 wins could come from, at home where they're not that good, I can see them winning against Tampa Bay, Chicago and MAYBE Bengals and Baltimore. On the road, we could see a 1-7 record EASILY. This team jut can't get it done and their defense is mediocre at best. The Lions were 30th in the league at turnover ratio with -17, the offense is fumbling the ball and the defense can't create any fumbles/INT's. Plus, Detroit doesn't know how to win close games, last season when you had the other team on the ML against DET and the game was close going into the 4th Q, you could've stayed relaxed, as the Lions would always do something stupid to lose that game. With an easier schedule, Detroit could go 9-7, but not with this schedule.

Mr Handicapable · 06-24-13, 03:42 PM

Home: Oakland, Miami, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville
Away: San Francisco, Jacksonville, San Diego, Houston, Tennessee, Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas City

I've already bet Indy Over 8.5. I think everyone agrees that 11-5 for the Colts was a little flukey but this schedule just isn't that hard. Their division is terrible...even Houston is on the downslide. I think Houston is finally figuring out that Schaub isn't a top flight guy....he was hurt so often before they weren't sure. I think Indy gets a split w/Houston again. A team like Seattle is 10x worse on the road. They'll be favored over St. Louis at home. SD, Arizona, and KC on the road....Colts should win 2 of 3 imo.

SD Under 7.5 is the other one I love. I'd be scared of Detroit too a little bit...Reggie Bush might really be a good fit with dumpoff passes and screens.

GoldGlove · 06-25-13, 12:20 AM

Yeah, Indy's schedule is one of the easiest there are next season. But when it comes to future bets, you never really know. Like Indy winning 11, Detroit winning 4, etc. I think I'll add one more play and that's it, get ready for the season, good thing the CFB starts sooner or else i'd go crazy, nothing else for me right now, just bases, but I hate them with a passion.