Bust The Books 1/3/09

[BookBuster]

Whats up everyone, been doing a little research on these games and I'm pretty confident in these picks for today's wild-card action. So here they are.

8:00pm
Indianapolis Colts 49.5
San Diego Chargers +1.5

I know the colts have been fire as of late, winning 9 in a row since losing to Tennesee. Today they face the resurgent Bolts who finished the season 8-8 and won 3 of 3 and needed a miracle to make it into the post-season. Well they made it. LT is hurt with some tendon problem but is still expected to get in a few runs. They still have Darren Sproles. Indianapolis beat the Chargers 23-20 with a last second Vinatieri field goal. Colts still have a weak run defense in my mind on the flip side i still think they stink at running the ball also. So i expect Manning to throw numerous times. Rivers has been fire lately, showing he can play under pressure. I think this is another test for Rivers and i think he will show up. This can be an emotional and meaningful game for the Chargers as they are hosting the Colts. A home crowd will help. I hope the Colts footing isn't as great as they are on grass now.

Pick: Chargers+1.5 (Buy your hooks if needed, I think I'm gonna buy it to 3)
Under 49.5 (due to the Chargers running game)

Final Score Prediction: San Diego 21, Indianapolis 17

[t-bone]

I like the Over 49, Colts no huddle and the fact that Sproles can take it to the house on any given play.

San Diego 30
Indy 27

[BelieveTheHype]

Colts -1
u49

[BookBuster]

4:00PM
Atlanta -1
Arizona 51.5

The only thing I am worried about in Atlanta is the rookie QB Matt Ryan. This is such a big game for someone with little experience. Don't get me wrong, Ryan plays like a 10 year veteran. Been watching ESPN and the ticker says Kurt Warner has Atlanta's number when he is the starter. Arizona is at home here and about 70% of the money is on Atlanta but the line dropped from 4 down to 1 and even a PK at some places. I think this is a good spot for the Cards. Matt Ryan will make a couple of big plays to send the scores soaring but his late mistakes as a rookie will surely cost Atlanta. Look for Kurt Warner to play a well balanced game here as the cards run away late at home to send them into the second round.

Pick: Cardinals +1
Over 51.5

Final Score Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 34, Atlanta Falcons 21

[BookBuster]

Whoever does win that AFC Wild card game will have to grind that one out. I just think that it will be the chargers due to the fact that they are at home. I also think the Chargers are a younger team.

[BookBuster]

I had a pretty good day on Saturday's Wild-Card action. I hope everyone did too. Had a good call on the early game but i pushed 1 on my 4 team parlay. Arizona-1, Atlanta vs. Arizona Over 51, San Diego +1.5, Indianapolis vs. San Diego Under 50 (Should have bought it up to 50.5 I don't know why i didn't but oh well, still got paid 3)

Be back tomorrow to wrap up the Wild-Card Weekend...Hope you guys are listening.

[Vesuvius]

The Indy/SD game total was 40, not 50.

[BookBuster]

oh crap i guess i won then....long night full of alcohol so thanks for the heads up

[BookBuster]

paid more attention to the arizona game than the chargers even though most of the money was on the chargers to win

[BookBuster]

1:00Pm
Baltimore -3.5
Miami 38

Last time Baltimore and Miami met Baltimore won 27-13 in Miami. The player who might make a difference in the Dolphins defense is Joey Porter. I doubt that though, He is nowhere near what Ray Lewis and what he will do to Chad Pennington. I can go on and on all day about this Baltimore defense but to make a long story short, I think Chad Pennington will have trouble with Baltimore's stingy defense. Give credit to Miami too as they have turned the ball over the fewest times in the NFL. This here will be a grind out game too just like the Colts and Bolts game. Unlike that game, I feel that whoever can control the clock and turns the ball over the fewest times will prevail. That's why i think Baltimore will win, they will go up early and keep the lead. I don't see a revenge win, And I can't possibly call the total on this game but I'm leaning towards the Over 38

Pick: Baltimore -3.5 (Will buy 1 Point to make it 2.5 to get off that key number and to be on the safe side)
Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 24. Miami Dolphins 16

[BookBuster]

4:30Pm
Philadelphia-3
Minnesota 41

The difference in today's NFC wild-card game between the Eagles and the Vikings will be Tavaris Jackson. It will all be on his shoulder's. If Jackson turns the ball over more than 2 or more times the game will be wrapped. I know he has the legs to scramble him out of bad situations but the Eagles defense will have their day with Jackson. I see multiple sacks and an ambush of blitzes to hurry Jackson and force interceptions. The Eagles on the other hand have done everything they needed to to get into the post-season. Won when they needed to and got help when the needed it. McNabb has showed up under pressure and has prevailed. I think they win today against the Vikings on the road to boost them into the second round. I couldn't possibly call the total on this either because of the way the Vikings mix it up. If they use Adrian Peterson more, it can possibly go under. But just like Baltimore's game I would lean over 41.

Pick: Philadelphia -3 (buy the half to make it 2.5)
Final score prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 24, Minnesota Vikings 17 (might be a great idea to buy the hook on the total to make it 40.5 because i feel the total will turn out to be something like this)

[dolce05]

Philly game is going to be an air assault in the first half until someone holds a considerable lead. They will both use the run to set up the very long ball. I'm not into betting totals but this smells like an over to me

(notice i called it the philly game....philly wins give the 3...they'll win by double digits)

[dolce05]

PS chad and company shut down the Balt D and go to the second round.... miami +3 (you wont need the points)

[BookBuster]

Philly game is going to be an air assault in the first half until someone holds a considerable lead. They will both use the run to set up the very long ball. I'm not into betting totals but this smells like an over to me

(notice i called it the philly game....philly wins give the 3...they'll win by double digits)

Dolce05: At first I thought that too because when Philly wins, they pound teams. And in this critical situation I think they are more than capable of doing that. I haven't played the total yet but I most likely will go with the over but that game isn't until 4:30 so I'll have a little more time. What you think about the early game? Over as well?

[BookBuster]

I can't see Baltimore's defense laying down so easily. They finally have their complete threats on defense on the offense and I just don't think they can let this one up. They have to be comfortable to know that they already beat the fish at home earlier this season.

[BookBuster]

Wow, What a great wild-card weekend. Won 2 parlay cards(one for 4 teams, and one for 5 teamswith one NBA play). Also won a $100 4 team teaser and went 6-2 overall in straight bets losing only on the over totals on both of today's game. Looking forward to busting the books again for next weekend's divisional round.

Anyone hopping on the wagon?

[Pensinger1]

Very nicely done sir.

I wouldn't mind a ride on the wagon myself.. will be keeping an eye on your picks in the divisional round for sure.

Here's to busting the bookies!