NFL Playoffs Round 1: Power Plays

[riggs]

I'd really hate to ride the favorites here, but Minn and Arizona suck, they're lucky to be in the picture here. Miami just came off two tough emotional road games, they've had a great season, but they don't match up well vs. this Baltimore team!

3 Power Plays

Atlanta Falcons +1

Baltimore Ravens -3

Philadelphia Eagles -3


Write ups soon to follow..... stay tuned!

[maniac0201]

Minnesota sucks? I know their not the Titans or Giants, but sucks?

[jerseydave77]

I like the Ravens and Eagles early. Philly can blow this team out.

[riggs]

Minnesota sucks? I know their not the Titans or Giants, but sucks?

Offensively they're a one dimensional team, they have no passing game, and their secondary is soft. Philly is not a 9-6 team, they're a top notch team in the league. The Eagles have a solid run defense, one of the best in the game. No one wants to play the Eagles right now. Minnesota was lucky to win yesterday (vs. the Giants 2nd team for nearly an entire half of football) in a game that they had to have! Minn doesn't match up well here.

[MrMonkey]

Love your Philly pick Riggs! What's your opionion on buying points to -2.5? Also, Ravens D nasty, been playing with alot of nagging injuries, but could Flacco have rookie jitters, thinking Miami could keep real close. Again, if Miami buy to +3.5? Thanks!

MrMonkey

[riggs]

Love your Philly pick Riggs! What's your opionion on buying points to -2.5? Also, Ravens D nasty, been playing with alot of nagging injuries, but could Flacco have rookie jitters, thinking Miami could keep real close. Again, if Miami buy to +3.5? Thanks!

MrMonkey

If you feel better buying the .5 point by all means, but I truly don't believe that you'll have to. Philly (as long as they don't turn the ball over) should win this one by a comfortable margin.

I don't see much value in the Dolphins here. They were my play of the day Sunday, but this Ravens team is a few steps above. Secondly, not to take away from what the Dolphins accomplished this year but their schedule was fairly easy. Go back and check out their games, who they beat, and their margins of victory. The Dolphins played one solid Defense all year and they lost 27-13 at home. The team they lost to: Baltimore.

[robbiemesser]

I'm feeling Philly and Balt early as well. Philly and Indy are the hottest teams coming in and I think the Ravens are Super Bowl bound.

[maniac0201]

Sorry to dwell, but why do you think the Vikings are lucky to be in the playoffs? Even if they would have lost yesterday, they still win the division.

[nick2060]

The vikings play in one of the bad divisions. IF philly doesnt come out pass happy, then im sure they'll show you why minnesota sucks. To be honest they don't SUCK, like riggs said but there really not an elite team like philly has potential to be. Moreso Tavaris Jackson is definitely not a playoff type quarterback and the giants played with some backups in the 2nd half and still almost won. Arizona and Minny would be competitive but other then that anybody else in the playoffs would smash them.

[Seattle Slew]

Be careful betting rookie QBs in the playoffs. Remember Roesthberger was a disaster when the Steelers went 15-1 and even Brady was not good early in that snow game against Oakland in his first playoff start.

I'll be betting against Flacco and Ryan in these games.

[riggs]

Be careful betting rookie QBs in the playoffs. Remember Roesthberger was a disaster when the Steelers went 15-1 and even Brady was not good early in that snow game against Oakland in his first playoff start.

I'll be betting against Flacco and Ryan in these games.

Good Luck!

Miami is completely outclassed here, and Arizona (IMO), just isn't a very good football team.

[w9ii9]

Flacco and Ryan have strong ground attacks to back them up. Its hard to go against your plays.

[NardVa]

Although I hate Miami I think they beat Baltimore. This is the 2nd meeting between the two teams. I think it's hard to beat a team in the regular season then again in the playoffs. Miami has the revenge factor plus what ever Baltimore did the first time around to beat Miami probably want work the 2nd time around. Miami lost 27-13 the first time but remember Miami had the ball inside the Baltimore 10 twice and came away with 3 instead of 6 and Miami gave Baltimore an easy 6 on an int run back. So the first game was much closer than the score indicates.




As for Atlanta I don't trust their defense. If you jump on Atlanta early and force them to play catch they will try and put the game in Ryan's hands and play right in to the hands of the Arizona defense. Arizona isn't as bad a team as people think. Most of their bad games had to do with them going east. As long as Arizona doesn't turn it over they should get a win.

[Doc JS]

Although I hate Miami I think they beat Baltimore. This is the 2nd meeting between the two teams. I think it's hard to beat a team in the regular season then again in the playoffs. Miami has the revenge factor plus what ever Baltimore did the first time around to beat Miami probably want work the 2nd time around. Miami lost 27-13 the first time but remember Miami had the ball inside the Baltimore 10 twice and came away with 3 instead of 6 and Miami gave Baltimore an easy 6 on an int run back. So the first game was much closer than the score indicates.




As for Atlanta I don't trust their defense. If you jump on Atlanta early and force them to play catch they will try and put the game in Ryan's hands and play right in to the hands of the Arizona defense. Arizona isn't as bad a team as people think. Most of their bad games had to do with them going east. As long as Arizona doesn't turn it over they should get a win.

You can rationalize it anyway you want. Arizona has played poorly coming east. They also played like dogs at home against Minnesota. A team that loves to run the football...just like the Falcons. The difference is Atlanta has a better QB.

Now, I do agree that the Falcon defense is, to be kind, suspect.

If Atlanta can run the ball and dominate the clock, they can win this game.

Doc

[riggs]

You can rationalize it anyway you want. Arizona has played poorly coming east. They also played like dogs at home against Minnesota. A team that loves to run the football...just like the Falcons. The difference is Atlanta has a better QB.

Now, I do agree that the Falcon defense is, to be kind, suspect.

If Atlanta can run the ball and dominate the clock, they can win this game.

Doc

Agreed, Arizona looked bad for much of the game Sunday vs. Seattle as well. I did bet on Arizona though, reluctantly!

Atlanta performed fairly well at pass-happy SD just a few weeks back. I like the Falcons in this spot!

[Romolicious]

My two favorite plays for this week are Balt -3 and Ind -1. I am leaning towards ATL and PHI, but I hate taking nothing but the favorites this week.

[riggs]

My two favorite plays for this week are Balt -3 and Ind -1. I am leaning towards ATL and PHI, but I hate taking nothing but the favorites this week.

Well, guess what???

I'm adding one of your favorites to the card! Their defense scares the living s*** out of me, but this is the playoffs, and they seem to struggle against teams with power running games. Something SD doesn't have. I don't have the courage to bet against Peyton Manning and Norv Turner is so f***** bad in big games!

Adding: Indianapolis Colts -1

[xyzky]

Let's go Philly!! Nice call on this, a bit dissapointed it opened on a key number, but, it should not matter!!

[Robust]

I like Minnesota at home for sure.. Have you seen the last 3-4 games philly played on the road? They were terrible..

SD is also peeking my interest. I am not sure on this one, but all my numbers conclude they will win (yes, i know they lost at home to indy already). Their last 3 at home, they averaged 34 pts to Indy's 21 away. And they won by an IMPRESSIVE 17 avg points in those games (tho to shitty teams mostly.. lol.. did i say i was not sure?)

with ya on the others!

gonna wait to see if the lines move higher

good luck!

Robust

[riggs]

I like Minnesota at home for sure.. Have you seen the last 3-4 games philly played on the road? They were terrible..

SD is also peeking my interest. I am not sure on this one, but all my numbers conclude they will win (yes, i know they lost at home to indy already). Their last 3 at home, they averaged 34 pts to Indy's 21 away. And they won by an IMPRESSIVE 17 avg points in those games (tho to shitty teams mostly.. lol.. did i say i was not sure?)

with ya on the others!

gonna wait to see if the lines move higher

good luck!

Robust

Didn't Philly just man-handle the Giants a few weeks back on the road?

Why do you like Minnesota at home? I know people love to throw out stats and trends and philosophy picks during the regular season, but this is playoff football we're talking about here.

Philadelphia (for all their mishaps) is battled tested and prepared for this game. They have a ton of guys with playoff experience on that team who know how to win! Minnesota plays in the 2nd worst division in the NFL, they've struggle a great deal against PLAYOFF teams and potential playoff teams (Arizona doesn't count), hell, they struggled against the Lions twice this year!

Minnesota's Schedule

Sep 8@Green BayLost 19-24
Sep 14IndianapolisLost 15-18
Sep 21CarolinaWon 20-10
Sep 28@TennesseeLost 17-30
Oct 6@New OrleansWon 30-27
Oct 12DetroitWon 12-10
Oct 19@ChicagoLost 41-48
Week 8BYE
Nov 2HoustonWon 28-21
Nov 9Green BayWon 28-27
Nov 16@Tampa BayLost 13-19
Nov 23@JacksonvilleWon 30-12
Nov 30ChicagoWon 34-14
Dec 7@DetroitWon 20-16
Dec 14@ArizonaWon 35-14
Dec 21AtlantaLost 17-24
Dec 28N.Y. Giants (2nd Team!) Won 20-19


Philadelphia's Schedule

St. LouisWon 38-3
Sep 15@DallasLost 37-41
Sep 21PittsburghWon 15-6
Sep 28@ChicagoLost 20-24
Oct 5WashingtonLost 17-23
Oct 12@San FranciscoWon 40-26
Week 7BYE
Oct 26AtlantaWon 27-14
Nov 2@SeattleWon 26-7
Nov 9N.Y. GiantsLost 31-36
Nov 16@CincinnatiTied 13-13
Nov 23@Baltimore (in it until the 4th)Lost 7-36
Nov 27ArizonaWon 48-20
Dec 7@N.Y. GiantsWon 20-14
Dec 15ClevelandWon 30-10
Dec 21@WashingtonLost 3-10
Dec 28DallasWon 44-6

[slacker00]

Philly will destroy the Vikings. Philly has the perfect offense to beat the Vikings: screen left & screen right, pass, pass, pass. Philly has plenty of playoff experience and knows how to play with the chips down. The Vikings will have to learn the hard way what the playoffs are all about.

I also like ATL & BALT, despite the rookie QBs. As stated above, they've got power running games to help them out. Besides, Miami has been living a dream season, but they aren't really that good. ARZ is simply lucky to be playing at all in January.

I'm laying off the Indy-SD game. Look what SD did to Indy last year in the playoffs, in Indy. It's basically the same teams, except this time in SD. Throw the records out the window, this game will be a grudge match and the last team standing will be the one that's most battle hardened from all of these recent years of playoff frustrations. Which will it be? I don't know and I'm not playing this game.

[jesron1269]

I like Minnesota at home for sure.. Have you seen the last 3-4 games philly played on the road? They were terrible..

I am playing Minnesota +3.5 rather large for myself and I am also playing Minnesota money line. Philly is extremely overrated and will fall flat on their face. They are a completely different team on the road than at home. This line was created and begging for Philly action. BOL!

[jesron1269]

Didn't Philly just man-handle the Giants a few weeks back on the road?

Why do you like Minnesota at home? I know people love to throw out stats and trends and philosophy picks during the regular season, but this is playoff football we're talking about here.

Philadelphia (for all their mishaps) is battled tested and prepared for this game. They have a ton of guys with playoff experience on that team who know how to win! Minnesota plays in the 2nd worst division in the NFL, they've struggle a great deal against PLAYOFF teams and potential playoff teams (Arizona doesn't count), hell, they struggled against the Lions twice this year!

Minnesota was 6-2 at home this year and Philly was 3-4-1 on the road. Minnesota beat Carolina at home, lost to Indy by 3 (leading all game long until the fourth quarter), beat Arizona on the road by 21, beat NY Giants at home last week, lost to Tennesee on the road by 13 and lost to Atlanta at home by 7 (turnovers cost Minnesota that game because Atlanta did not look dominate in that game).

Philly beat San Francisco, Seattle and NY Giants for their lone road wins. The Giants game was by six and hardly man-handled game.

Note that Philly has averaged 20.75 points per game and given up 21.38 points per game with their 8 road games. If you take out the highest and lowest number for both then they have averaged 20.5 points per game scored and given up 20.5 points per game for the remaining six.

Minnesota on the other hand has scored 21.75 points per game and given up 17.88 points per game at home for their 8 home games. Again if you take out the highest and lowest total then the numbers would be 21.33 points per game scored and 17.67 points per game given up.

That is my two cents.

[rockhardfister]

Although I hate Miami I think they beat Baltimore. This is the 2nd meeting between the two teams. I think it's hard to beat a team in the regular season then again in the playoffs. Miami has the revenge factor plus what ever Baltimore did the first time around to beat Miami probably want work the 2nd time around. Miami lost 27-13 the first time but remember Miami had the ball inside the Baltimore 10 twice and came away with 3 instead of 6 and Miami gave Baltimore an easy 6 on an int run back. So the first game was much closer than the score indicates.




As for Atlanta I don't trust their defense. If you jump on Atlanta early and force them to play catch they will try and put the game in Ryan's hands and play right in to the hands of the Arizona defense. Arizona isn't as bad a team as people think. Most of their bad games had to do with them going east. As long as Arizona doesn't turn it over they should get a win.

Even when ATL gets down early they dont panic - they remain balanced across the board. Put the game in Matt Ryans hands and that dude will cut your throat - He is not a rookie

[daneblazer]

I think the Eagles won't be able to utilize their strength, which is blitzing, as much as people believe. Everyone thinks the blitzes are going to confuse and get to Tavaris Jackson...and they will...but Minnesota will pass about 12 times if this game is close. At this point, it doesn't really matter how strong a run defense you have against Adrian Peterson because he's going to run for over 100 yards. Tavaris Jackson since being reinserted as a starter has thrown 8tds and 1 int. As trivial as this sounds, Phille needs to jump on Minnesota early and force them to throw. This will be the loudest stadium the Eagles will have played in this year.

[slacker00]

I think the Eagles won't be able to utilize their strength, which is blitzing, as much as people believe. Everyone thinks the blitzes are going to confuse and get to Tavaris Jackson...and they will...but Minnesota will pass about 12 times if this game is close. At this point, it doesn't really matter how strong a run defense you have against Adrian Peterson because he's going to run for over 100 yards. Tavaris Jackson since being reinserted as a starter has thrown 8tds and 1 int. As trivial as this sounds, Phille needs to jump on Minnesota early and force them to throw. This will be the loudest stadium the Eagles will have played in this year.

Minnesota fans are pathetic. As of yesterday, there were still tickets available. Can't they support their team? I half expect more Philly green than Viking purple in the stands for this game. Move the Vikings to L.A., Minnesota doesn't deserve an NFL team! haha

[Cougar Bait]

GL riggs. I like Baltimore and Philly. Not sold yet on Atlanta.

[scotty0129]

Baltimore
Atlanta
Vikings
Colts

[riggs]

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals

Ok great, the Cardinals play decent at home and the Falcons don't come into this one with a shutdown defense. But even when Arizona wins, they win ugly. This team isn't very good and they really have no business in the playoffs. Arizona (imo) has been one of the worst teams in football since the month of November. Atlanta on the other hand has been anything but, they've pulled off some impressive wins down the stretch and got a wake up call last week vs. the Rams which (imo) was a good thing. Warner has some playoff experience so I guess that gives the Cardinals an advantage there, but the guy's still a statue who holds on to the ball way too long in the pocket, he fumbles way too much, and when pressured makes very bad reads. Warner has no reliable check down out of the back field nor does he have a reliable pass catching TE. The Cardinals have no running game, so they wont be able to exploit Atlanta's main weakness on defense. Without that passing game, they win 4 games all year (imo). Atlanta on the other hand has a rather efficient passing game, and a QB that I trust a hell of a lot more than Warner. Michael Turner might be the best pure-running back in the game, outside of Peterson. But like Peterson he seems to get stronger as the game progresses. IMO, Atlanta is a more balanced team offensively and Matt Ryan is by far the best Rookie I've seen to date, yes, better than Manning. You also have to take into consideration that Arizona cant seem to pressure the QB and they suck vs. the pass. Again, Arizona does not belong in the playoffs. Atlanta should win this game tomorrow with a balanced attack on offense and puting enough pressure on Warner to keep the Cardinals offense off balance, causing a few turnovers in the process.

Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Cardinals 23

Saturday's Play: Atlanta Falcons +1 (2 Units)

[riggs]

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers

By far the toughest game of the week to cap. I thought long and hard about staying away, but being the degenerate that I am, I couldn't stay away. I know, I need help!!! Both of these these teams have played fairly well as of late, but the Chargers have actually shocked me. Beating Tampa on the road and then destroying Denver in a critical game for both teams? Wow. Call me crazy but I still haven't bought into this squad and I still hate Norv Turner as a coach. Both of these clubs have experience and San Diego obviously has an advantage playing at home. Both teams are pretty bad defensively, even though the Colts defense has only given up 15ppg over their last nine, but I'm sorry, that's still an ugly/undersized defense. I do think that Indy might be able to get to Rivers in this one though, not completely, but enough, surely more than Denver & Tampa did! On the other side of the ball, Manning will have all day to throw and won't miss the throws that Cutler and Garcia did. The Chargers are pitiful vs. pass, they give up a ton of yards, and as long as you have an accurate QB and receivers who don't drop balls left and right, you got a shot vs. this team. Indy seems to struggle against teams with power running games. SD doesn't have one, and (IMO) Tomlinson has lost a step or two. I don't have the courage to bet against Peyton Manning in this one, and if you think about it, that's what this game will come down to - Manning vs. Rivers. I give a slight advantage to Indy in this one. The last meeting between these two squads was very close, a nail biter, I was on the wrong side. I expect something similar here, and so I advise playing this one small.


Score Prediction: Colts 26, Chargers 23

Saturday's Play: Indianapolis Colts -1 (1 Unit)

[Jmoney]

locked in @ ATL to Win

[riggs]

locked in @ ATL to Win

I don't even care if Arizona wins this game, in which I don't believe they will, but even if they do, I'll still think that Atlanta was the right play here.

BOL

[riggs]

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

No need for a write up here, Miami is over matched and completely outclassed. They've had a great season, congrats Dolphins, but your magnificent run ends here. I jumped all over this line when it was at -3, I still see plenty of value in it at -4 as well though. Lay the wood!!!

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Dolphins 13

Saturday's Play: Baltimore Ravens -3 (5 Units)

[BigMoney]

My playoff bets

I Locked Eagles-3 and ravens -3 early..... and now falcons ML..... colts no play for me...

[danrman]

everybody likes philly and balty sun.. 1 of them will lose and i think its the fraud known as the eagles.. they cant stop the run and they suck on the road.. besides beating the giants (which they play twice a year and the giants didnt care about that game anyway) they only beat bad teams.. minny is capable of the upset here.. the house will not lose both games sunday and everybody is on philly and balty