I am leaning Phl to cover (-15.5) and the under (40). I have been looking at this game for a little while (have to take it bigger than I would like since the NFL sh*t on me on Sunday) and here is why I like this pick.
The most glaring aspect is that Philly still has something to play for and the Browns have nothing but their pride to motivate them to win because it is a nationally televised game.
Looking at the teams:
Passing Games...
TE Kellen Winslow is out. This leaves Edwards. While he is a decent WR, he has Dorsey throwing to him. I am not sure I need to say a whole lot about Dorsey. He is awful and Jimmy Johnson will make this one big educational film on how to blitz a QB that has seen one game in the past 3 years. Edwards was thrown to 14 times last week but only pulled 3 of those in for a total of 38 yards. I am sure they worked this past week on their timing and chemistry but with Asante Samuel expected to play (not to mention Lito Sheppard and Quintin Mikell), I don't see Edwards doing any better than he did last week. Would be surprised to see more than 150 passing yards vs. the 4th ranked Eagles pass defense. McNabb has proven to be shaky out of the gate at times. If they can establish the run and get him in his groove quickly, my under may be in trouble. McNabb throws for two TD's against the Browns 15th ranked pass defense (giving up 210 YPG).
Running games...
Jamal Lewis is really the Browns only threat on the ground and he has failed to rush for more than 88 yards in a game this season. While the Eagles have shown that they can be run on at times, I am sure stopping Lewis is the game plan going into tonight. The weather is forecasted to rain but be unseasonably warm. I see a lot of running this game forcing a lot of three and outs for this Browns team. The Browns allowed a staggering 235 rushing yards against the Titans last week. Something tells me they will get a heavy dose of Mr. Westbrook tonight. With either his feet or his hands, I see him getting 2-3 TD's and at least 150 combined yards.
Coaching...
While Andy Reid manages the clock about as well as Helen Keller could, since becoming head coach, his Eagles are 28-12 in the month of December. Crennel... may not have his job at the end of the season and it is not a secret. Bad weather forces Reid to commit more to the running game than he usually does. Net gain for Philly fans and Westbrook owners in fantasy football.
Key stats...
Browns have not scored a TD in their past 3 games and has an average of 203 TOTAL yards in the same span.
Westbrook has scored 6 td's in the past two weeks averaging 120.5 rushing and 45.5 rec. yards per game in the same span (3 rush 3 rec).
Cle ranked 28th in rush D allowing 148 yards per game
Cle has Dorsey... Phi have Johnson. Cle may have to go to their 4th string QB after Johnson dials up his blitz schemes on Dorsey.
Home game... Playing for a Wild Card...MNF... adds up to more than the Browns can handle.
This may have been a huge waste of time considering it is the NFL and as I was reminded yesterday, even the games that look good can wind up as duds... at least I was able to waste my company's time and not my own!
In my opinion…
Browns end their pay dirt drought tonight but only get one.
Eagles cover and with all of the ground work, the score is kept under.
Final Score
Eagles 27
Browns 10
Obviously I am a tad blinded by rage from yesterday, so please feel free to comment if you think I am missing something.
The most glaring aspect is that Philly still has something to play for and the Browns have nothing but their pride to motivate them to win because it is a nationally televised game.
Looking at the teams:
Passing Games...
TE Kellen Winslow is out. This leaves Edwards. While he is a decent WR, he has Dorsey throwing to him. I am not sure I need to say a whole lot about Dorsey. He is awful and Jimmy Johnson will make this one big educational film on how to blitz a QB that has seen one game in the past 3 years. Edwards was thrown to 14 times last week but only pulled 3 of those in for a total of 38 yards. I am sure they worked this past week on their timing and chemistry but with Asante Samuel expected to play (not to mention Lito Sheppard and Quintin Mikell), I don't see Edwards doing any better than he did last week. Would be surprised to see more than 150 passing yards vs. the 4th ranked Eagles pass defense. McNabb has proven to be shaky out of the gate at times. If they can establish the run and get him in his groove quickly, my under may be in trouble. McNabb throws for two TD's against the Browns 15th ranked pass defense (giving up 210 YPG).
Running games...
Jamal Lewis is really the Browns only threat on the ground and he has failed to rush for more than 88 yards in a game this season. While the Eagles have shown that they can be run on at times, I am sure stopping Lewis is the game plan going into tonight. The weather is forecasted to rain but be unseasonably warm. I see a lot of running this game forcing a lot of three and outs for this Browns team. The Browns allowed a staggering 235 rushing yards against the Titans last week. Something tells me they will get a heavy dose of Mr. Westbrook tonight. With either his feet or his hands, I see him getting 2-3 TD's and at least 150 combined yards.
Coaching...
While Andy Reid manages the clock about as well as Helen Keller could, since becoming head coach, his Eagles are 28-12 in the month of December. Crennel... may not have his job at the end of the season and it is not a secret. Bad weather forces Reid to commit more to the running game than he usually does. Net gain for Philly fans and Westbrook owners in fantasy football.
Key stats...
Browns have not scored a TD in their past 3 games and has an average of 203 TOTAL yards in the same span.
Westbrook has scored 6 td's in the past two weeks averaging 120.5 rushing and 45.5 rec. yards per game in the same span (3 rush 3 rec).
Cle ranked 28th in rush D allowing 148 yards per game
Cle has Dorsey... Phi have Johnson. Cle may have to go to their 4th string QB after Johnson dials up his blitz schemes on Dorsey.
Home game... Playing for a Wild Card...MNF... adds up to more than the Browns can handle.
This may have been a huge waste of time considering it is the NFL and as I was reminded yesterday, even the games that look good can wind up as duds... at least I was able to waste my company's time and not my own!
In my opinion…
Browns end their pay dirt drought tonight but only get one.
Eagles cover and with all of the ground work, the score is kept under.
Final Score
Eagles 27
Browns 10
Obviously I am a tad blinded by rage from yesterday, so please feel free to comment if you think I am missing something.
