Public solid on one side...no line movement

[ClayBalls]

I'm kind of new at his and have lost some money going with what the general public thinks which usually matches with what I think.
So tell me if I may be on the right track:

From http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

Jacksonville with only 15% of bets but no line movement
Oakland with only 13% but no line movement
Minnesota with only 16% but no movement
Cleveland with 30% with no movement

Every one of these teams I would instinctively bet against, but maybe that is why I always end up pissed. Are these solid plays for this reason alone???

[bostonbruins]

Are these solid plays for this reason alone???

Of course not

[ClayBalls]

OK. Serious question though. Been reading about smart money and RLM. Could use a thought out response.

[awhitejackson]

Watching line movement should be one of several tools/skills used......Vegas would not be the castle paradise it is if there was some sort of "sharp" angle on every game (or even say....25% of games) Vegas was built on the vigoristic juice of billions of bets.....Now if the line does move an alarm bell rings in my head to better check out the bet, but this often mean little to nothing....You can study lines and line movements for years and luck or rather house advantage, will still get the best of you .....Instinct is just as important a tool as a solid recognition of line movement......Most important thing to remember is the public wins a lot of bets and the phantom "sharps" do as well.....So follow your superior betters and take advantage of those you find to be consistant winners until you can "sharply" understand teams, line movements, and the thousands of other factors involved in this biz.......Hope that helps a little

[ClayBalls]

Yeah...thanks.

[ClayBalls]

When I looked at that, it could be taken as sarcastic, but I really mean thanks!

[awhitejackson]

Anytime.....Going to forums and following advice is a good first step to becoming a decent capper. The hardest thing though is to learn whos advice to take and who is full of it.....Good Luck

[Robust]

I'm kind of new at his and have lost some money going with what the general public thinks which usually matches with what I think.
So tell me if I may be on the right track:

From http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

Jacksonville with only 15% of bets but no line movement
Oakland with only 13% but no line movement
Minnesota with only 16% but no movement
Cleveland with 30% with no movement

Every one of these teams I would instinctively bet against, but maybe that is why I always end up pissed. Are these solid plays for this reason alone???

yes! all of those can be converted into good plays.. just adjust the numbers to your liking (buying points).

Examples:
Jax 1.5->7.5 (6pt tease)
Oak +7.5->9.5 (buy 1/2 pt to 2.5pts)
Min +3.5 (buy 1/2 pt)
Cle +14.5 (buy 1/2 pt)

These are the numbers sharps were looking at according to Nick Bogdanovich's article ("what the sharps are thinking...")

good luck!

Robust

[danrman]

i've liked jax and oak all week.. tough bets to make but winning bets usually are.. for instance i took atlanta sat. night.. now who liked that