Attention: Play of the Year!!!

bostonbruins · 12-12-08, 09:54 AM

Was on it Tuesday, lets get em

riggs · 12-12-08, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by bostonbruins

Was on it Tuesday, lets get em

So was I, Here! I can't wait for this game, this is by far the best home dog I've seen all year! We're gonna smash em'

MrMonkey · 12-12-08, 11:21 AM

Hope So!

Riggs, you've got such a good record, hard not to tail this one. Houston -11 and Tenn +11 turnovers, always thought some luck involved with this stat and will even out. Saw Jack. game, Slaton running over them and Kubiack should have wrapped up game eariler by running and wearing down defense. (especially when both QB's can screw things up in 1 play)

Home dog, only see +3 now, thing that worries me is Houston's bad run defense. Hopefully Tenn. doesn't get lead and sits on it, that's why want to get +4? Plus Collins, when is he going to revert to the man of past time. This week?

MrMonkey

riggs · 12-12-08, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by MrMonkey

Riggs, you've got such a good record, hard not to tail this one. Houston -11 and Tenn +11 turnovers, always thought some luck involved with this stat and will even out. Saw Jack. game, Slaton running over them and Kubiack should have wrapped up game eariler by running and wearing down defense. (especially when both QB's can screw things up in 1 play)

Home dog, only see +3 now, thing that worries me is Houston's bad run defense. Hopefully Tenn. doesn't get lead and sits on it, that's why want to get +4? Plus Collins, when is he going to revert to the man of past time. This week?

MrMonkey

Houston will key the run on Defense as you'll see 8 in the box rather frequently, we all know this, and they'll man up against Tennessee's piss poor receivers. If Houston can make a few stops against the run, they can jump on Tennessee early in this one!

On Tuesday I got: Houston Texans +4 & Houston Texans +150 (ML).

LUNT101 · 12-12-08, 11:49 AM

I like the play, and there is also some reverse line movement. 74% of the public on the Titans, yet the line has gone from -3 to -3.5 or even 4 on some books.

riggs · 12-12-08, 12:09 PM

Just to remind the doubters out there, I did call the upset of the year with Tennessee's 1st loss of the season: Here

Rio DiNero · 12-12-08, 01:25 PM

I like your thinking, I'm with you. You can pass on Titans and Texans have Schaub back, I believe he is underated also, played solid game last week. He is surely an upgrade from Sage "Call me Elway" Rossenfels. Also, game means nothing to Titans, and I'm sure Houston will be up for this divisional matchup.

apk2k6 · 12-12-08, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by LUNT101

I like the play, and there is also some reverse line movement. 74% of the public on the Titans, yet the line has gone from -3 to -3.5 or even 4 on some books.

That's not reverse line movement

LUNT101 · 12-12-08, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by apk2k6

That's not reverse line movement

Yeah I said it backwards it opened at 3.5 and its now at 3...oops!

bostonbruins · 12-12-08, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by riggs

Just to remind the doubters out there, I did call the upset of the year with Tennessee's 1st loss of the season: Here

I like your thinking, I was on the Jets in that game too for 5u

Kingctb27 · 12-12-08, 02:12 PM

Good stuff. You guys will lose all of your bankroll in one game. Titans lie down for no-body. Johnson will shred their asses all day and how is their line going to keep the Titans DL off of Schaub? You think the Titans are going to give up easy TD's like the Packers did last week?

Kingctb27 · 12-12-08, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by bostonbruins

I like your thinking, I was on the Jets in that game too for 5u

That's the only game the Titans have not covered this year and are 6-0 ATS on the road this year. Good luck, you will need it.

diogee · 12-12-08, 04:01 PM

Good luck Riggs...when I saw POY I was honestly expecting it to be Tenn. Figured we would see at least 2 or 3 POYs released on Tenn this week with how "easy" it looks.

diogee · 12-12-08, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by Kingctb27

That's the only game the Titans have not covered this year and are 6-0 ATS on the road this year. Good luck, you will need it.

They didn't cover GB either...I remember them both because I was huge against them both weeks and lost 4 years of my life on the GB game.

irishdude · 12-12-08, 04:07 PM

yea riggs great call the first game would have been closer tenn a pic 6 with hou at the 4 yd line

riggs · 12-12-08, 10:44 PM

Originally posted by irishdude

yea riggs great call the first game would have been closer tenn a pic 6 with hou at the 4 yd line

Slaton was rather impressive in that game too! Houston is going to be jacked up for this, that stadium should be loud as f***.

Don't get too excited, but check out Tennessee's Injuries!

Albert Haynesworth, DT (Knee - Questionable)

LenDale White, RB (Knee - Questionable, Limited Participation in Practice)

Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE (Groin - Out, Did Not Practice)

stump · 12-13-08, 12:18 AM

can't call it my poy but i like houston, gl

Rixsaw · 12-13-08, 12:39 AM

I like Houston only because Tenn. already clinch the division and most likely home field advantage. I hope the coach will limit the starters play time to keep them healthy.

riggs · 12-13-08, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by stump

can't call it my poy but i like houston, gl

This game has let down written all over it and I'm sorry but Tennessee doesn't win many games in convincing fashion. They're over due for a drop and I think this is the week, in a game on the road vs. a high powered offense, without Vandenbosch on defense.

unit1884 · 12-13-08, 04:00 AM

I like this play, Tenn wont be playing with as much energy since they have everything locked up... Plus Hou plays division games tough as hell

supershark · 12-13-08, 05:29 AM

I love it if Haynesworth is out, if not im laying off it

johnny baseballs · 12-13-08, 06:02 AM

Originally posted by riggs

Just to remind the doubters out there, I did call the upset of the year with Tennessee's 1st loss of the season: Here

jets beating the titans wasnt the upset of the year by any means

johnny baseballs · 12-13-08, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by riggs

The more I look at the numbers and trends for this game, the more I fall in love with it, I'm pounding this one hard!

Houston Texans +4
Houston Texans +150 (ML)

Don't even tell me you're not impressed with this team. They just got done humiliating Jacksonville on Monday night and upset GB on the road, now that's what you call momentum. They've played so well this year (imo), and if it wasn't for a few bone head plays and bad red-zone turn overs this is arguably an 8-5 team. Houston is the most underrated offensive team in the NFL, BUT THEY'RE IN THE TOP 5 in nearly every offensive category. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walters and Owen Daniels make up one of the best WR's/TE tandems in the league. Their kicker is a stud too, might be the best out there! Now they have 12-1 Tenn at home on Sunday, but does Tenn really look like a 12-1 team week in and week out??? They win some ugly f***** games! Their running game is great and they play like animals on defense but (imo) this game has let down written all over it. Before I get into anything else, I must say that I really like this game, and I'm strongly considering slamming down a large Money-Line Play on Houston. Check this stat out: The Texans are 7-0 ATS as home underdogs since October of 06. Tennessee will pound the ball and wont try to win this one in the air as Houston is ranked 25th vs. the run, but if Houston gets a quick score or two on the board early on I don't like Tenn chances here. Tennessee did run for 123 yards on Houston at Tenn this year, but that was off 32 attempts, that ain't so great! If it wasn't for Schaub tossing three picks, Houston would have kept that game much closer. Another component of Houston's offense is Steve Slaton, this guys really good, and don't forget he ran for 116 yards against the Titans. One last thing, check out some of Tennessee's wins this year: Tennessee beat the Browns with Dorsey, the Lions, Jacksonville, Chicago with Grossman, and they barely beat the Packers at home in overtime. I'm calling the upset here, but if you feel more comfortable with the points by all means, but don't shy away from this one!

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 23

jaguars lost 6of7 and green bay lost 5of6 good teams dont go through that so that means the texans just beat 2 bad teams dont be too high on the texans i hope you win but its not the play of the year Im calling it now dallas next week vs ravens will be the most easily picked game for me of the season in favor of dallas good luck

Robust · 12-13-08, 06:46 AM

Houston is the play... anything else and you are the public... and we FADE the public...

good luck to ALL!!

Robust

MakeMoney · 12-13-08, 10:18 AM

oh man this thread is a treat. talk is cheap so i hope you guys live up to your word and hammer this one hard.

as johhny baseballs mentioned the texans havent shown anything, they turned the ball over 4 times last week against green bay.. they got away with it against the lowly packers but the titans? no way. shaub threw 3 picks against tennesse in their first matchup and the titans made them pay. dont kid yourself the texans cant help but turn the ball over.

Riggs man you have a unreal record this year, great job. but your play of the year is the TEXANS over the TITANS. seriously? say that out loud to yourself, record it and play it back. its ridiculous. this has nothing to do with public betting/ reverse line movements, home dogs or any other trend you can come up with. this one comes down to one team handling another. the titans have owned the texans, winning 7 in a row and 11-2 overall. why would that change this week? Oh because the texans have won 3 in a row against Jags, Packers and Browns-- Impressive, those are 3 of the worst 5 or 6 teams in football. the titans will punish the texans for turning the ball over, possibly through defensive tds but more likely through chris johnson beating up on one of the worst run d's in the league.

i don't think it will be as one sided as the first matchup but an easy cover nonetheless.

24-13 Titans.

BTW J. Baseballs "play of the year Im calling it now dallas next week vs ravens will be the most easily picked game for me of the season in favor of dallas"

i noticed that game last week as well, im looking for nice odds to hammer cowboys ML

BookBuster · 12-13-08, 10:33 AM

Riggs,
I'm with you big on this one man. Jacksonville, Tennessee, & Indianapolis both have trouble with this Texan team. They all seem to have trouble. I mean when the Texans lose to these 3 the score might not be close but it was a hard fought game. I placed bets these past few years on the Texans when they've played these 3 teams and i came out on top. I will ride this trend big just like how I'll ride an NFC West battle this weekend. Check out my thread for that write up.

Best Of Luck to Us.

riggs · 12-13-08, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by MakeMoney

oh man this thread is a treat. talk is cheap so i hope you guys live up to your word and hammer this one hard.

as johhny baseballs mentioned the texans havent shown anything, they turned the ball over 4 times last week against green bay.. they got away with it against the lowly packers but the titans? no way. shaub threw 3 picks against tennesse in their first matchup and the titans made them pay. dont kid yourself the texans cant help but turn the ball over.

Riggs man you have a unreal record this year, great job. but your play of the year is the TEXANS over the TITANS. seriously? say that out loud to yourself, record it and play it back. its ridiculous. this has nothing to do with public betting/ reverse line movements, home dogs or any other trend you can come up with. this one comes down to one team handling another. the titans have owned the texans, winning 7 in a row and 11-2 overall. why would that change this week? Oh because the texans have won 3 in a row against Jags, Packers and Browns-- Impressive, those are 3 of the worst 5 or 6 teams in football. the titans will punish the texans for turning the ball over, possibly through defensive tds but more likely through chris johnson beating up on one of the worst run d's in the league.

i don't think it will be as one sided as the first matchup but an easy cover nonetheless.

24-13 Titans.

The Texans haven't shown anything???

They're one of the most explosive offenses in all of football. By the way that game in Tennessee was not one sided, That game was close for quite a while and Tennessee's 2 stud RB's only ran for 123 yards on 32 carries! Houston gives up an average of 145 yards rushing on the road, at home they give up an average of 107.

On to the game in GB, yes, they turned it over 4 times last week against a team with plenty of ball-hawks on the road. But they still won the game on the road in GB, WHEN EVERYONE AND THEIR F****** MOTHER WAS ON THE HOME TEAM! I wasn't.

How did Tennessee fair against GB in their own building??? Did they dominate that game? Was that a convincing win? GB blew that game, Tenn had no business winning that one. Yet Houston goes into GB, turns the ball over 4 times, and still wins the f****** game!

Furthermore, look at Tennessee's last 6 games. They just beat Cleveland 28-9, but that lob-sided score hardly characterizes that game, Tennessee struggled throughout most of that game, they got plenty of breaks on bonehead turnovers, and terrible play calling on the part of the Browns. Wow, they beat Detroit 47-10 (everyone else has). They were dominated, exposed, and smoked by the Jets losing 13-34 AT HOME. They beat a crap team in Jacksonville 24-14, once again, in unconvincing fashion, that game was hard fought and Jacksonville lost that one in the 2nd half, they dominated the 1st half of that game and then just fell apart in the 3rd & 4th quarter because of an inept offense. They beat Chicago 21-14, yet again in unconvincing fashion, this was a Bears team with Rex Gross-Man behind center, and (IMO) the Bears gave that one away in the 2nd half. Finally they beat Green Bay at home 19-16, in a game WE ALL KNOW THEY SHOULD HAVE LOST!

This Tennessee team is not that impressive. They're very good, but they're not great.

riggs · 12-13-08, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by johnny baseballs

jets beating the titans wasnt the upset of the year by any means

Another Monday morning QB, so I'm guessing you made that call too???

Let's see, a 10-0 Team at home in Tennessee, vs. a 7-3 Jets team that got destroyed on the road vs. SD and lost to f****** Oakland on the road, 11 weeks into the season!!!

Up until that point, it was the upset of the year PAL.

Show me a documented upset that you called more impressive than that game?

Anyone else sick of a**holes like this, who talk s***, and don't put up anything to show for it???

Kingctb27 · 12-13-08, 12:37 PM

I hope you are at least putting 10 units on this one. Play of the year baby. Gotta love it.

Houston Texans who have one of the worst D's on the year and worst turnover margin's in the league. Compared to the Titans who are great in the TO Margin.

I also love how everyone claims that the Texans are #3 in the offensive category. They are not. Offenses should be ranked on a basis of points scored, not total yards. When it comes to scoring points, the Texans are middle of the pack, and the Titans are 7th in the league. Why do I say this? Well, let's have a look at the Baltimore Ravens game where the Texans were clearly dominated. They scored 13 points compared to Baltimore's 41. However, the Texans had 355 total yards to the Ravens 333.

Should offense's be ranked by total yards? No. It's all about putting points on the board and obviously the Texans have difficulty putting them on the board.

Also, Love how people say Slaton was so awesome in their first meeting. Well, if you had watched the game as I did, basically half of Slaton's yards came on a run where the Titans defense stopped playing because they thought Slaton was already down.

Sounds like a play of the year to me.

Cheme82 · 12-13-08, 12:54 PM

If you are thinking about putting money on Houston please read this first.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/126467-all-people-pounding-texans-must-read.html

YTD
NFL
37-13-1 205.45
Teasers
1-5 -45
CFB
42-32 76.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3

ipickwinners · 12-13-08, 01:00 PM

take a look at the teams this houston team has beaten... dolphins lions bengals browns jags and packers.....best defense they have beaten is #13.....while some of the others they have beaten are #23 #24 #31 in the league. the titans D is #3 in the league.....they have no chance

if ur going to give a 'play of the year' ....come with one thats not a long shot dog

riggs · 12-13-08, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by ipickwinners

take a look at the teams this houston team has beaten... dolphins lions bengals browns jags and packers.....best defense they have beaten is #13.....while some of the others they have beaten are #23 #24 #31 in the league. the titans D is #3 in the league.....they have no chance

if ur going to give a 'play of the year' ....come with one thats not a long shot dog

First of all they do have a chance,

Nearly 90% of the action in this one, according to my Vegas source, is on Tennessee. But yet the line has dropped from -4 or -3.5 depending on your book to -3. Something's fishy here. Lines don't go down unless the house wants tons of action on the Favorite.

Be careful, be very careful!!!

ipickwinners · 12-13-08, 01:41 PM

tenn has covered all but 1 game this year...hou is 7-6 ATS....how is this ur....'game of the year' ?

DaProfessor23 · 12-13-08, 01:50 PM

i got the texans +10 in my teaser . not so sure about it tho.