BetCRIS Who Will Score qst TD Prop

easyliving · 01-23-13, 04:04 PM

if i'm not mistaken baltimore always likes to kick off first. I think 8/10 times Niners will get the ball first.

Maniac · 01-23-13, 04:16 PM

It could be that they are getting a bit of a lopsided decision on it, but for this game that price looks about right to me.

The only thing I can think of that might possibly be a factor is whether both teams have a certain preference on whether they kick or defer after the coin toss.

If for instance San Fran tend to favour deferring the kick-off if they win the toss, and if for instance Baltimore tend to favour receiving the kick-off if they win the toss, then in theory that would suggest that there would be more of a chance of Baltimore receiving the kickoff regardless on who wins the toss, and as a result would affect all "Team to xxxx 1st" props.

Now I have absolutely no idea what each team prefers to do, and am not likely to look into it in that much depth either - and even if the preferences do favour one team, then it doesnt necessarily mean that on this occasion each team will stick to their favoured choice, but that is something that I could see affecting a prop such as this - but assuming all things equal, then +115 is about right for that prop in my mind, maybe slightly on the higher side of things, but well within range for a correct price.

tto827 · 01-23-13, 08:28 PM

Baltimore always defers FYI. I still like the play. That's pretty early for CRIS to put up props, and sometimes they only have them up for a bit, and then they will be back up later. Not really sure why, but it'll likely be back up soon.

mebaran · 01-23-13, 09:05 PM

Good call tto...they put it back up along with their second big round of props.

Easy living, where are you getting that deferring info from?

Appreciate the info, folks.

tto827 · 01-23-13, 09:09 PM

On the broadcast for the NE/Balt game they mentioned that Baltimore always defers to the second half.