How can you put your hard earned money at Atlanta?

[enzopizzaman]

Where were the quality wins in Seattle's win streak besides sf. Which was a top passing team? Atlanta at home has the advantage in ypp, ppp, 3rd% and rz% over Seattle on the road. How about Seattle's fatigue from travel and struggles on the east coast with a 1pm est start. Maybe their struggles in a dome this season. But what do I know

Uh NE and GB both whom are still in the playoffs... Russell Wilson 17-2 TD to INT ratio in his last 9 games...


Who has Seattle beat..lol

[brewcrew2k]

How can you not talk about the Packers with that G ring next to everything you write? I'm constantly reminded.

It's funny, your Packers share 2 of those same losses. If those losses are so bad, it can't be good on the Packers either.

The G ring is to remind you who the greatest team of all time is.
But this week the greatest team will be Seattle. I just hope the packers win, I'm not betting on them. I'm a homer, but I'm not a idiot.

[brewcrew2k]

Uh NE and GB both whom are still in the playoffs... Russell Wilson 17-2 TD to INT ratio in his last 9 games...


Who has Seattle beat..lol

Yeah pizza!! And Seattle may of kicked the crap out of San Fran also. Just saying.

[DirtyBird1500]

Denver and New England have strength of schedules just as bad as Atlanta (Denver is worse actually). Does that mean they both have no chance tomorrow as well?

[NOboy]

Uh NE and GB both whom are still in the playoffs... Russell Wilson 17-2 TD to INT ratio in his last 9 games...


Who has Seattle beat..lol

seattle beat gb? LMFAO please tell me you dont believe this madness. secondly the only team that is even worth mentioning in their winning streak is SF. they beat stl, zona, buffalo, and a slumping chicago team. you cannot be serious. those teams are as impressive as falcons win streak or lease impressive IMO

[DirtyBird1500]

seattle beat gb? LMFAO please tell me you dont believe this madness. secondly the only team that is even worth mentioning in their winning streak is SF. they beat stl, zona, buffalo, and a slumping chicago team. you cannot be serious. those teams are as impressive as falcons win streak or lease impressive IMO

Not to mention, the Seahawks lost close games to alot of bad teams, but they'll tell you that those don't count because they happened in the first half of the season.

However ATL winning close games against bad teams is a negative.

[slacker00]

Denver and New England have strength of schedules just as bad as Atlanta (Denver is worse actually). Does that mean they both have no chance tomorrow as well?

ATL had the softest this year by a lot. I went into this a few days ago here. No biggy, they beat the teams they played.

Denver was 4th softest, NE was 10th softest tied with BAL & HOU.

http://nfltraderumors.co/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/

[DirtyBird1500]

ATL had the softest this year by a lot. I went into this a few days ago here. No biggy, they beat the teams they played.

Denver was 4th softest, NE was 10th softest tied with BAL & HOU.

http://nfltraderumors.co/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/

The site I looked at had different rankings, but yeah the point remains the same really either way. None of them had tough schedules overall.

http://predictionmachine.com/Strength-of-Schedule-Rankings

[slacker00]

The site I looked at had different rankings, but yeah the point remains the same really either way. None of them had tough schedules overall.

Yeah, at first I thought maybe there was an angle there, but this is the NFL, they are all professionals, all wins count.

[brewcrew2k]

The site I looked at had different rankings, but yeah the point remains the same really either way. None of them had tough schedules overall.

Denver and New England don't have Mike Smith as a head coach or a QB that can't win an important game.

[slacker00]

Denver and New England don't have Mike Smith as a head coach or a QB that can't win an important game.

Yeah, Packers and Falcons suck because they can't beat Eli's Giants or Warner's Cards. lol

[DirtyBird1500]

Denver and New England don't have Mike Smith as a head coach or a QB that can't win an important game.

That Giants game a few weeks ago wasn't important? Could have fooled me.

[slacker00]

That Giants game a few weeks ago wasn't important? Could have fooled me.

Ahh, that's right. ATL destroyed Eli's Giants fresh off Eli's Giants destroying the Packers. Puts it in perspective.

[brewcrew2k]

That Giants game a few weeks ago wasn't important? Could have fooled me.

Ok, should of changed important to playoff games. And the giants games... Giants very erratic this year, so I don't think we can call that a big win , in my eyes.
Best of luck to the falcons, I'm sure it will be a goud game. It's hard to trust that team until they prove it.

[Pivotpoint]

I like the Falcons and the short number of - 2 1/2

Falcons are beast at home. To question Coach Smith on the road is humorous. Dude has lost only 7 times in the dome in last 5 years.

Falcons lost once this year at home. ( Bucs after clinching home field wk 17) Prior to that loss they ripped off 11 straight at home.

Ryan is red hot 11/1 last 5 games. Falcons are getting healthy, mostly on defense. ( Abraham, Robinson, Moore?)

The Falcons should be sharp on offense in the dome and combo of Ryan throwing to Julio Jones, Roddy White and especially Tony Gonzalez will cause problems. Seahawks faced a somewhat similiar offense on the road in the dome in Detroit. They left with a loss (28-24)

Yes, Seahawks looked good beating the Skins, but that was almost a miracle. They fall behind by 14 to Atlanta and they are in big trouble. RG3 was on one leg and multiple dropped balls, poor coaching calls.

I see the Falcons by one TD.

[slacker00]

Ok, should of changed important to playoff games. And the giants games... Giants very erratic this year, so I don't think we can call that a big win , in my eyes.
Best of luck to the falcons, I'm sure it will be a goud game. It's hard to trust that team until they prove it.

ATL already proved it 13 times this year. When you boil it down, it's just football. Fans maybe see the playoffs as unique because playoffs are more of a rare event. It's just football. All the teams are 0-0 going forward. We use the past to predict the future, but bringing up games from years ago starts to look a little silly. For me, looking back one season is about the maximum as far as predictive information and even then with a grain of salt.

[suicidekings]

Not to mention, the Seahawks lost close games to alot of bad teams, but they'll tell you that those don't count because they happened in the first half of the season.

However ATL winning close games against bad teams is a negative.

So if you flip a coin nine times, calling heads every time, and heads comes up 7 times, do you feel like you outsmarted the coin?

Close wins/losses aren't positive or negative. They're also not meaningful as an argument for or against a team. Points aren't predictive. Start looking at net total offense and then you have a metric that actually means something. Assume a team's got an offensive efficiency of ~14 yards per point (NFL average), so 7 points equals about 100 yards of offense.

By that standard, Atlanta outgained opponents by 100+ yards 6 times, had 6 games in the -100 < x < 100 range, and got outgained by 100+ 4 times. A little above average. Seattle breaks down as 6 of 100+, 2 outgained by 100+, and 9 in between. Slightly better, but not dramatically so. Nothing about it to contest the small spread. Neutral field Seattle is favoured by a bit, and Atlanta's HFA bring it to the current ATL -2.5.

[suicidekings]

....

[slacker00]

By that standard, Atlanta outgained opponents by 100+ yards 6 times, had 6 games in the -100<x<100 range, and got outgained by 100+ 4 times. A little above average. Seattle breaks down as 6 of 100+, 2 outgained by 100+, and 9 in between. Slightly better, but not dramatically so. Nothing about it to contest the small spread. Neutral field Seattle is favoured by a bit, and Atlanta's HFA bring it to the current ATL -2.5.

Any chance home field is worth more than the standard 3 in this game? If any game ever, this one screams it.

[suicidekings]

Any chance home field is worth more than the standard 3 in this game? If any game ever, this one screams it.

I used to have a nice set of HFAs for all the teams in the NFL that was the product of using Cantor's full season lines to reverse engineer the HFA for each team. They ranged from -2 up to -4, depending on the team. Sadly, my laptop died and took that work with it, but if memory serves, I feel like Atlanta was one of the above average teams. At least in terms of how the books assess the HFA. But that would already be integrated into the line, so if anything, the comparison of this game vs the matchup played on a neutral field would shade Seattle a little more favourably.

If you mean situationally, that's pretty tough to put a number on... Maybe a half point for Seattle having to travel across country.

[slacker00]

I used to have a nice set of HFAs for all the teams in the NFL that was the product of using Cantor's full season lines to reverse engineer the HFA for each team. They ranged from -2 up to -4, depending on the team. Sadly, my laptop died and took that work with it, but if memory serves, I feel like Atlanta was one of the above average teams. At least in terms of how the books assess the HFA. But that would already be integrated into the line, so if anything, the comparison of this game vs the matchup played on a neutral field would shade Seattle a little more favourably.

If you mean situationally, that's pretty tough to put a number on... Maybe a half point for Seattle having to travel across country.

Yes, plus maybe a half point for the intensity of playoff football. Some fans might see this as a once in a lifetime run.

Don't get me wrong, I'd go the same way if it was in SEA. That place has to be worth more than 3, plus the travel, intensity, etc.

[suicidekings]

Yes, plus maybe a half point for the intensity of playoff football. Some fans might see this as a once in a lifetime run. Don't get me wrong, I'd go the same way if it was in SEA. That place has to be worth more than 3, plus the travel, intensity, etc.

Are they really going to be any louder though? I kind of doubt the fans were really holding back during the regular season.

[slacker00]

Are they really going to be any louder though? I kind of doubt the fans were really holding back during the regular season.

LOL, true. I'm not an ATL fan at all, just seems like a great spot for them with SEA getting overvalued now.

[2daBank]

Denver and New England don't have Mike Smith as a head coach or a QB that can't win an important game.

God damn. I'm on atl and I could make a better case for sea than u can... Spare me this recycled bs bout Ryan and at least cap the damn gm.. The fact atl has ran into the eventual sb champs the last 2 yrs has jack shit to do with this gm .. Guess u another genius that thinks Peyton sux in the playoffs because he ran into better teams than his colts most yrs... How many times did Favre go down before getting a ring? Steve young? U get the picture? The fact Ryan has yet to win in playoffs says nothing about his ability to win (it his 4th yr in league and he the reason his team even been in playoffs every yr)..not to worry tho, like usual it won't be long till u see the error in this so called logic....

I guess I could say only 1 time ever has a west coast team went east b2b weeks in playoffs and won, does that mean sea chances are any less? Not really as has nothing to do with outcome of this gm, much like every reason u give for backing sea...

[brewcrew2k]

God damn. I'm on atl and I could make a better case for sea than u can... Spare me this recycled bs bout Ryan and at least cap the damn gm.. The fact atl has ran into the eventual sb champs the last 2 yrs has jack shit to do with this gm .. Guess u another genius that thinks Peyton sux in the playoffs because he ran into better teams than his colts most yrs... How many times did Favre go down before getting a ring? Steve young? U get the picture? The fact Ryan has yet to win in playoffs says nothing about his ability to win (it his 4th yr in league and he the reason his team even been in playoffs every yr)..not to worry tho, like usual it won't be long till u see the error in this so called logic....

I guess I could say only 1 time ever has a west coast team went east b2b weeks in playoffs and won, does that mean sea chances are any less? Not really as has nothing to do with outcome of this gm, much like every reason u give for backing sea...

Yep, coaching has nothing to do with this game. You have your play and I have mine, on Sunday afternoon only one of us will be a winner.
You can crunch numbers all day, but humans play this game and if you think in the back of Ryan's head he doesn't believe he can win he won't.
Brett Favre started 2-1 in the playoffs. Steve young started 2-1.
And Matt Ryan's teams were better in the past then they are now. Last year they averaged 4.0 yards per rush, this year 3.7. Plus they give up 4.8 yards per rush.
But I'm sure that had nothing to do with this game either.
I am worried about Clemons not playing though, and Wilson being a rookie.

[JMon]

The thing that scares me about Atl is that they seem to have no answer or lack in the ability to deal with spread offenses. Look at the two losses to Carolina. Atl gave up 394 yards rushing and 485 yards passing. That's 879 yards they gave up to the spread offense and Carolina. Now it will be up to Sea if they can exploit that. My money is on Sea +125 for a 1/2u..

good luck should be a fun game to watch, nonetheless.

[2daBank]

Yep, coaching has nothing to do with this game. You have your play and I have mine, on Sunday afternoon only one of us will be a winner.
You can crunch numbers all day, but humans play this game and if you think in the back of Ryan's head he doesn't believe he can win he won't.
Brett Favre started 2-1 in the playoffs. Steve young started 2-1.
And Matt Ryan's teams were better in the past then they are now. Last year they averaged 4.0 yards per rush, this year 3.7. Plus they give up 4.8 yards per rush.
But I'm sure that had nothing to do with this game either.
I am worried about Clemons not playing though, and Wilson being a rookie.

you should be worried, every reason you have listed is trash...carroll isnt some great coach while you banging on smith,,,atl was not better in previous yrs, sea corners dont match up,,, no it isnt "in ryans head", its in yours and all the espn bobbleheads,,, yes sea should be able to run and they better do it very well cause when atl offense on the field they will be scoring..

young was labeled as "cant win the big one", then guess what he won the big one..strange how even tho he lost in previous attempts he was still able to finally achieve a goal..only a loser would let some set backs "get in their head", and you dont become a top 10 qb if you a loser..

[brewcrew2k]

The thing that scares me about Atl is that they seem to have no answer or lack in the ability to deal with spread offenses. Look at the two losses to Carolina. Atl gave up 394 yards rushing and 485 yards passing. That's 879 yards they gave up to the spread offense and Carolina. Now it will be up to Sea if they can exploit that. My money is on Sea +125 for a 1/2u..

good luck should be a fun game to watch, nonetheless.

Yeah those stats were amazing. Don't think Seattle will come out in the spread though. Cam newton tourched Atlanta.

[DirtyBird1500]

Russell Wilson is not Cam Newton. 6-5 245 and 5-11 206 is a big difference when it comes to trying to tackle somebody.

[coitus_maximus]

The issues will become whether ATL can stop Marshayn Lynch. If not....ATL one and done......AGAIN. I think Coach Smith has been studying this game for quite awhile. I see a lot of balls thrown to Douglas and Gonzales in this one.

[slacker00]

The issues will become whether ATL can stop Marshayn Lynch. If not....ATL one and done......AGAIN. I think Coach Smith has been studying this game for quite awhile. I see a lot of balls thrown to Douglas and Gonzales in this one.

They don't have to stop him, but contain him, sorta like the Packers and Peterson last week. Tho, RW isn't Joe Webb.

Peterson had 22 for 99 yards and 1 catch for 8 yards, 0 TDs. If ATL does that to Lynch, ATL wins.

[psufan]

Atlanta will win. They played too well this season and have been more focused.

[brewcrew2k]

They don't have to stop him, but contain him, sorta like the Packers and Peterson last week. Tho, RW isn't Joe Webb.

Peterson had 22 for 99 yards and 1 catch for 8 yards, 0 TDs. If ATL does that to Lynch, ATL wins.

I remember lynch just going off against the saints, was that last year or two years ago. I'm sure Atlantas D is not like the saints but....

[slacker00]

I remember lynch just going off against the saints, was that last year or two years ago. I'm sure Atlantas D is not like the saints but....

Lynch is a beast and SEA o-line might be one of the more underrated in the NFL. This will be a job for ATL.

[2daBank]

Carroll really coaching his ass off! 3rd and short, 4th and short, no lynch..lmfao...love doubling my hard earned money...