Leans for Sunday 11/30/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Sunday 11/30/08
    Okay, I have made quite a few changes in my lineup for Sunday, but I have had time to watch the lines and make a few decisions on what i like....

    Tampa Bay-4

    New Orleans won on Monday Night Football. Who cares? the won't be able to do all of those things against the Bucs. No way! I'll take the home chalk on this one with the better defense.

    Chargers-4.5

    Atltanta has caught the momentum of the public with their win over Carolina. i want to tap into those emotions and fade the public and take the better team with the worse record in this matchup. Plus San Diego has had some tough luck with the referees lately. No leaving it up to them in this game. they win this one walking away.

    Patroits-1

    Ordinarily i would not bet againstthe Steelers in this spot, but I am going agaisnt my conventional thinking and taking the Patsat home to get the job done aganst the ice skating Steelers, who have not impressd me with their play as of late. Although they are winning, they aren't doing it in old school Steeeeelers style. This week it catches up with them.

    Browns+5

    Anytime I catch a home dog with less than 10% of bettors on their side and they play on a different surface than the team coming into town, i have to ride that home dog, especially when the home dog is Cleveland, with Derek Anderson getting his job back by default. The time on the sideline holding the clip board will pay big dividends in this game. 91% of bettors are on the Colts. I have to ride against the public on that one.
  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #2
    I am actually loving these plays and i am not budging on them. Time to get paid on Sunday!
    Comment
    • OuchaDirkFan41
      SBR High Roller
      • 11-20-08
      • 186

      #3
      Originally posted by cocknocker
      Okay, I have made quite a few changes in my lineup for Sunday, but I have had time to watch the lines and make a few decisions on what i like....

      Tampa Bay-4

      New Orleans won on Monday Night Football. Who cares? the won't be able to do all of those things against the Bucs. No way! I'll take the home chalk on this one with the better defense.

      Chargers-4.5

      Atltanta has caught the momentum of the public with their win over Carolina. i want to tap into those emotions and fade the public and take the better team with the worse record in this matchup. Plus San Diego has had some tough luck with the referees lately. No leaving it up to them in this game. they win this one walking away.

      Patroits-1

      Ordinarily i would not bet againstthe Steelers in this spot, but I am going agaisnt my conventional thinking and taking the Patsat home to get the job done aganst the ice skating Steelers, who have not impressd me with their play as of late. Although they are winning, they aren't doing it in old school Steeeeelers style. This week it catches up with them.

      Browns+5

      Anytime I catch a home dog with less than 10% of bettors on their side and they play on a different surface than the team coming into town, i have to ride that home dog, especially when the home dog is Cleveland, with Derek Anderson getting his job back by default. The time on the sideline holding the clip board will pay big dividends in this game. 91% of bettors are on the Colts. I have to ride against the public on that one.
      GDamnit, Im gonna take Indy outta all my sh#t tomorrow, I can see that bad D having to eek out a field goal for the win. Im tottally with you on that 91% percent stat, Vegas aint gonna set themselves up like that...I'm gonna sleep on it.
      Comment
      • chipper8888
        SBR Hustler
        • 11-19-08
        • 71

        #4
        never thought i would hear myself say it .....BUT i like the browns
        Comment
        • wangichu
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-07-08
          • 946

          #5
          hate to say it, BUT i may just take the chiefs on the road... mainly just because they have been beaten by the raiders at home, but still, they are clearly not the public favorites and, while getting 3 points, they are still facing the lolely raiders, who are who we thought they were and with this being a case in which betting on the raiders actually kinda makes sense, it's simultaneously, a time when raiders supportors will wind up feeling cheated, deceived and let down, just because you believed in them for a week. I know that's how i felt every time i felt i could believe in them and after what they just did to the broncos, i really feel like i should believe in them... i just know better...


          KC +3
          Comment
          • showtime2000
            SBR MVP
            • 11-09-08
            • 1054

            #6
            Hey Wang, nice pick.. Road team is 10-1ats head to head, Chiefs are 5-0ats last 5 in Oakland, Raiders are 0-6ats as favorites last 3 years and with 70% on the lowly Raiders, ya have to go with the chiefs. Nice find.
            Comment
            • showtime2000
              SBR MVP
              • 11-09-08
              • 1054

              #7
              Ck, any thoughts on San Fran, line's been at +6.5 for most of the week and public % has been climbing with 80% this monring. Line is screaming for the public to take BUffalo. I know there's that whole west coast east coast thing, but San fran has been playing better recently, Bills have been stuggling on pass D and niners loving passing the ball.
              Niners have been avergaing 27 points last 3 games and Bills giving up 26 points average last 3 games.

              any thoughts?

              your other picks are solid as usual! The over in TB/NO might be a play aswell, 6-0 Over in their last 6 meetings, Over 5-2 last 7 in Tampa.
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #8
                showtime, if the weather is snowy and blustery, you haveto roll with the Bills. If it is clear and not typical of Buffalo weather, then the Niners it is! it's that simple on that call!

                Wang, I think I like that Cheifs pick combined with showtime's stats. I think I will have to sprinkle a couple a dolars on that with you. You can't be makin' scrilla without me!
                Comment
                • showtime2000
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-09-08
                  • 1054

                  #9
                  Why is the Miami dropping down to -7 with 76% of the pub on them?
                  Something's up here.
                  Comment
                  • showtime2000
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-09-08
                    • 1054

                    #10
                    Alright one more, Cincinnatti +7 against Baltimore. Ravens 2-6ats last 8 against CIN, Ravens are 1-4ats in Cincinanti, home team is 5-1ats head to head. I can see Baltimore being a big public play today.
                    Comment
                    • nick2060
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-28-08
                      • 1051

                      #11
                      i was thinkin that cincy pick but ended up goin the other way, all those trends are talking about a joe flacco-less ravens and more importantly a bengals team with carson palmer, I think that'll make the difference this time
                      Comment
                      • peterpan19
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-02-08
                        • 3377

                        #12
                        anybody know wat kind of weather there for the bills today ?
                        Comment
                        • chipper8888
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 11-19-08
                          • 71

                          #13
                          Im in Toronto (only 1 hour drive away) and its freezing, massive snow storms are expected in the next few hours.....so expect it to be even worse down there right now
                          Comment
                          • chipper8888
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 11-19-08
                            • 71

                            #14
                            Big move on the Chargers line -6 now
                            Comment
                            • wangichu
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-07-08
                              • 946

                              #15
                              late post... got all plastered last night, but yeah, i took

                              SF +7
                              KC +3
                              TB -4
                              SD -4.5
                              CLE +5 (thanks CK)

                              get that skrilla
                              Comment
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