Week 15 Early Bets and Leans

[SmittyZ28]

Cincy -3 (-120)- Cincy is off a tough loss against the girls a game they should have one except the WRs, especially Green, decided not to catch the ball most of the day. Cincy 7-6 must win to stay in the playoff hunt. Eagles were impressive in TB, but Cincy pass rush and running game is too good not take the value in a -3. Cincy by 7. Already pounded this game

Minny +3 (-110) @ STL- Cannot believe more people are not talking about this game and this line. I respect Fisher especially at home but who is going to stop AD? The Rams? I don't think so. Vikings still in the playoff hunt, big game against the Bears last week look for this to continue. Ponder protected the ball well and has limited his picks, STL will need 2-3 turnovers to even keep this close. Danny A may or may not be back but even if he is, he will be playing with a flat tire. This game comes down to Jackson V Peterson and I will take the +3 ALL DAY. Took this for 2 units last night, this line should already be moving up but it has stayed put.

Lions -6.5 Not sure what to say about this game. The Lions have to win again this year right? I think yes, is there a better place to steal a win than in Arizona? I think no. Sure Zona is coming off an embarrassing loss but just because they are embarrassed it doesnt make their QBs any less crappy, or their defense any less swiss-cheesy. Like the lions in this spot, but haven't bet it yet

Raiders-3- After the emotional win for KC I decided to fade them the rest of the year. Oakland is terrible, and I mean terrible but I cannot see them losing one to KC at home. Have not looked into this game too much yet so no decision, but Raiders favored by only a FG at home is tempting

Good Luck People

[fergie's balls]

my money won't go anywhere near Christian Ponder. Rams D has some playmakers. i'm on Rams small. Vikes secondary is weak, i like the rookie Givens to have a big game.

Like Cincy a lot also, their D-Line should dominate this game. they can pressure without blitzing.

didn't get into the others

good luck

[R.P. McMurphy]

Actually Smitty we usually beat the Queefs in Arrowhead and they beat us in our house. That's how this slop-fest series has played out in recent years... just sayin. GL!

[SmittyZ28]

UPDATE
First pick was a winner, loaded up big on Cincy (4X). Eagles played well until they didn't lol. Loved the win and the units but after that performance by Cincy I am going to think twice before laying money on them again this year. Looking for a big Cincy fade against the Steelers next week depending on the line.

All loaded up on Minny +3(2X), line dropped to 2.5 still available at 3 on some books. I respect the Fisher and the Rams D but I do not respect the Rams offense. I like the straight up win by Minny here, but I will take the value in the points as I do not see the Rams beating ANYONE by more than a field goal.

Still No bet on Det or Oakland. Lines have held steady and I am still looking into the games. I will most likely take the -6.5 with Detroit but thinking I will lay off Oakland. KC has a good D and palmer is down right awful at times, this game will be won by whoever wins the turnover battles. I think McFadden has a big day in this spot against the Chiefs. If I bet this game I will be on Oakland -3.

ADDED

TB +4 (3X) Jumped all over this when the lined moved to 4. TB has lost 3 close ones in a row and they still have a tiny shot at a playoff spot. NO on the other hand doesn't have a shot at anything. NO has been a turnover machine and TB has protected the ball well. V Jack and Hamster are going to have a big day against the Saints. Really like TB in the turnover battle so taking the points, with a small bet on the TB ML (.5) most likely

Carolina +3 (3X) Should not need much of a write up here. Dont overact to the Steelers beating themselves, SD sucks. Cam Newton has returned to 2011 form throwing 11 touchdowns to 3 INTs over the last 4 games. San Diego has nothing to play for, and they are the most creative team when it comes to losing in the league. I see Carolina and Cam's legs dominating this game early. SD D-Line is banged up badly which should leave so huge chunks of yardage open to Cam Scrambles.

[aldo5408]

Would you take theses leans on a 13 pt teaser??

[SmittyZ28]

Would you take theses leans on a 13 pt teaser??

This is my 12pt teaser for tomorrow. 13-6 on these this year

4 Team Teaser (ties push) T tp 12nfl 12½fb & 9½bk
				Pending	12/16/12 1:00pm NFL Football 307 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15½ * vs New Orleans Saints
				Pending	12/16/12 1:00pm NFL Football 315 Denver Broncos +9½ * vs Baltimore Ravens
				Pending	12/16/12 4:05pm NFL Football 319 Carolina Panthers +14½ * vs San Diego Chargers
				Pending	12/16/12 8:30pm NFL Football 330 New England Patriots +7½ * vs San Francisco 49ers

[SmittyZ28]

Update on picks

Staying away from Detroit and looking more at Oakland -3. Waiting until tomorrow to see if there is any line movement, would love to get them at 2.5

SF +6 (2X)- This was a hard bet for me to take, so much so I had to put NE +7.5 in a 12 pointer. Looking at SF schedule they have held some high flying offenses to impressive totals:

@Packers-22pts
Det-19pts
Jets-O pts (not a good offense but just hoping to rub this in the face of any Jets fans that happen by this thread)
Saints- 21 pts

9ers D is too good not to take the value of 6 points on a prime time game. Really like the Pats straight up, Bill has an impressive history of eating rookie QBs alive. Went back and forth on this game and would have taken the Pats for -3 or under, but too much value in +6 to pass up. Pats by 4 27-23.

Jags +7.5 (1.5X) - Fade the fins at home (copyright by trigga Inc.), period. Have made some strong dough over the years betting agains the fins at home and anytime I can get a dog going into Miami for more than a TD I am taking it. Smaller bet as Jags are awful but this game should be close given how bad Miami is. Under lean as well, but no bet as of yet.

Props:
Indy team total O19.5 (2x)- Love this bet, I think Texans take this game big but I have a hard time believing the Colts wont score more than 19.5 on them. Even though I expect the Texans to come out strong after an embarrassing loss to the high flying Pats, their secondary is awful and has been giving up huge plays and points. Luck and the boys should easily be good for 2 TDs. Also on the OVER(1X).

Texans -8.5 (2X) As outlined above

Good luck people

[SmittyZ28]

Adding:

Cleveland -3 1st half

Manning U24.5 Completions

[SmittyZ28]

Also Pack -2.5 (2x) Many more bets than normal this week, but love this board. Is it 1pm yet?????

[neutral]

Giants +1.5
Steelers +1
Panthers +3

[SmittyZ28]

Packers 2x- Win
Texans 2X- Win
Browns 1h -3 1X- Win
Manning U24,5 1X- Win
SF+6 3X - Win
Carolina +3 3X- Win
Minny +3 2X-Win
Cincy 3X-Win
Raiders -3 2X-Win
Indy TT 1X- Loss
Jax +7.5 2X-Loss
Hou Indy Ov 1X-Loss
12 Pt Teaser 2X- Loss
TB +4 3X- Loss
Det -6.5 No Action

9-5 +11 Units on these play, cant complain