Tom Brady on Monday Night Football : As American As Apple Pie
I took a long hard look at this one -- my first impression coming into this MNF game tonight, after seeing who was playing, was take whoever was getting the points. Both of these teams are great, both feature juggernaut offenses and Houston really features a great defense that could prove to be the turning point for them on the road.
Last night my play on GB was because I knew that Aaron Rodgers would not let his team lose twice on national television. GB defense showed up and made some huge plays that turned out to be the difference makers, while playing the slop that they love to play in. I get the same fuzzy feeling about Tom Brady in New England tonight, and that's why I'm going to lay house on NE with the spread, as well as on the moneyline.
Now, NE has some questionables -- Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd etc. In my opinion, they all play tonight. Welker was questionable last week and put up great numbers. But this boils down to, "Is Tom Brady still the all-american winner he has been in years past?" -- and the answer to that question is "Yes", as shown by his play this season. He will find a way to win this game.
So, when you look at those 4 points, ask yourself -- when the Houston Texans get up to Foxborogh, MASS, in 30 degree weather, in front of 65,000 fans, on national television and up against possibly the greatest quarterback to play the game in the last 10 years, are 4 points going to matter? Are those 4 points going to matter when the Pats D & special teams step up on national television to potentially lay a legitimate smack down on Houston? Is Matt Schaub going to be the man to march into MASS and get it done on Monday Night? Nah.
This will be a homestand statement, similar to the one the Giants made last night.
52% of the spread action on NE, 56% on the over. I'm with the public on this one.
If you want to look at the fundementals, check the smart chart. Pretty evenly matched. Doesn't make a huge argument for NE. But, it does to me when I factor in the weather and home field advantage:
HOU ---------- NE
29.3 PTS FOR 35.8
18.4 PTS AGNST 21.7
10.8 DIFF 14.2
247.1 PASS YDS 285.5
142.5 RUSH YDS 140.8
235.0 PASS D 279.9
87.6 RUSH D 100.8
-1.2 TO DIFF -2.0
Betting NE big and also laying on the over 51.5 and playing a pleaser with NE -16 at +425.
Last night my play on GB was because I knew that Aaron Rodgers would not let his team lose twice on national television. GB defense showed up and made some huge plays that turned out to be the difference makers, while playing the slop that they love to play in. I get the same fuzzy feeling about Tom Brady in New England tonight, and that's why I'm going to lay house on NE with the spread, as well as on the moneyline.
Now, NE has some questionables -- Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd etc. In my opinion, they all play tonight. Welker was questionable last week and put up great numbers. But this boils down to, "Is Tom Brady still the all-american winner he has been in years past?" -- and the answer to that question is "Yes", as shown by his play this season. He will find a way to win this game.
So, when you look at those 4 points, ask yourself -- when the Houston Texans get up to Foxborogh, MASS, in 30 degree weather, in front of 65,000 fans, on national television and up against possibly the greatest quarterback to play the game in the last 10 years, are 4 points going to matter? Are those 4 points going to matter when the Pats D & special teams step up on national television to potentially lay a legitimate smack down on Houston? Is Matt Schaub going to be the man to march into MASS and get it done on Monday Night? Nah.
This will be a homestand statement, similar to the one the Giants made last night.
52% of the spread action on NE, 56% on the over. I'm with the public on this one.
If you want to look at the fundementals, check the smart chart. Pretty evenly matched. Doesn't make a huge argument for NE. But, it does to me when I factor in the weather and home field advantage:
HOU ---------- NE
29.3 PTS FOR 35.8
18.4 PTS AGNST 21.7
10.8 DIFF 14.2
247.1 PASS YDS 285.5
142.5 RUSH YDS 140.8
235.0 PASS D 279.9
87.6 RUSH D 100.8
-1.2 TO DIFF -2.0
Betting NE big and also laying on the over 51.5 and playing a pleaser with NE -16 at +425.
