I seem to have raging success losing during the regular season of NFL. I tend to do well during playoffs and Super Bowl.
So I'm going to try a change of tactics. I'm going to bet against myself during the regular season. Why? I watch the games just like anyone, and like the public, I can identify the favorites with ease. So a couple of things factor into my strategy.
1) Vegas is not sharp - they could care less who wins so long as the money is evenly distributed. It's the sharp public who sets the lines with where the money is placed.
2) Who can't see the stronger team? So the public is going to naturally overshoot the stronger team, allowing the other side to sometimes get just enough points to cover.
3) If I was losing money betting one way, stands to reason I should win going the other way.
4) Ever notice how 50% of NFL games go unexpectedly?
Thanksgiving games:
Detroit +3.5 for 5 units. Normally I would take the Texans. Detroit doesn't have much of a running game, and Detroit has a poor secondary. Both teams have below average special teams. So the Texans should win handily. In fact, I'm surprised the spread is -3.5. You'd think the Texans would be at least 10 pt favorites. So because I really like the Texans to win this game, I'm going to bet opposite and put my money on Detroit.
Jets +8 for 5 units. The Patriots could very well beat the Jets 50-20. The magic of Brady, a stronger Patriots running game, and better defense make the Patriots a favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Jets? - riddled with personality disorders, injuries, and inconsistency. Patriots should easily be 2 TD favorites. Heck the Patriots team total over should be an easy win. So despite all this, I'm going to bet opposite and take the loser Sanchez-led Jets.
Redskins +3 for 5 units. This game is fairly evenly matched - coin toss if you ask me. Tony Romo the gunslinger vs RG3 the Natural. Dallas is playing at home, so I give the edge to Dallas. Also Dallas's defense should do a good job containing RG3 and Alfred Morris. The Redskins defense is shaky at best. Dallas is on the verge of making a move to go on top of the NFC East - and it starts on Turkey Day. Don't be surprised if we see Dallas winning the NFC - a franchise QB with a strong defense, a good running back in Demarco Murray once he comes back - formula for success. So I'm going to bet opposite and take the Redskins. Probably a waste of time in that it will end in a push, but what the hell.
So I'm going to try a change of tactics. I'm going to bet against myself during the regular season. Why? I watch the games just like anyone, and like the public, I can identify the favorites with ease. So a couple of things factor into my strategy.
1) Vegas is not sharp - they could care less who wins so long as the money is evenly distributed. It's the sharp public who sets the lines with where the money is placed.
2) Who can't see the stronger team? So the public is going to naturally overshoot the stronger team, allowing the other side to sometimes get just enough points to cover.
3) If I was losing money betting one way, stands to reason I should win going the other way.
4) Ever notice how 50% of NFL games go unexpectedly?
Thanksgiving games:
Detroit +3.5 for 5 units. Normally I would take the Texans. Detroit doesn't have much of a running game, and Detroit has a poor secondary. Both teams have below average special teams. So the Texans should win handily. In fact, I'm surprised the spread is -3.5. You'd think the Texans would be at least 10 pt favorites. So because I really like the Texans to win this game, I'm going to bet opposite and put my money on Detroit.
Jets +8 for 5 units. The Patriots could very well beat the Jets 50-20. The magic of Brady, a stronger Patriots running game, and better defense make the Patriots a favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Jets? - riddled with personality disorders, injuries, and inconsistency. Patriots should easily be 2 TD favorites. Heck the Patriots team total over should be an easy win. So despite all this, I'm going to bet opposite and take the loser Sanchez-led Jets.
Redskins +3 for 5 units. This game is fairly evenly matched - coin toss if you ask me. Tony Romo the gunslinger vs RG3 the Natural. Dallas is playing at home, so I give the edge to Dallas. Also Dallas's defense should do a good job containing RG3 and Alfred Morris. The Redskins defense is shaky at best. Dallas is on the verge of making a move to go on top of the NFC East - and it starts on Turkey Day. Don't be surprised if we see Dallas winning the NFC - a franchise QB with a strong defense, a good running back in Demarco Murray once he comes back - formula for success. So I'm going to bet opposite and take the Redskins. Probably a waste of time in that it will end in a push, but what the hell.
