19-4 ATS last 2 weeks. Week 12 plays inside.

[MobFade]

Leans for Thursday are:

HOUSTON coming off a close win to JAX. Detroit looked good against Green Bay, but Houston presents a different set of challenges on both sides of the ball.

DALLAS squeaked one out against Cleveland but that was expected. WAS on the other hand beat down a defeated Eagles team, and Foles struggled in his first start ever. It looks like 70% of the money is on WAS at +3-100, so we'll hold off until later in the week to see if we can get Dallas at -3-110.

NYJ if this line moves closer to 7. I imagine NE's rout of the most overhyped team in the NFL has the public on them at over 85%. I don't feel great about taking the Jets here especially since they are comin off a big win as well. We'll monitor this and maybe make a play on gameday

Alright so we're waiting for more favorable lines for Dallas and the Jets. The play for right now is:

HOU-3-115 // TOP BET


Picks documented my spreadsheet and in MobFade's Nfl picks thread.

[MobFade]

Evidently I was looking at last nights line for NE/NYJ game at NE-5.5. BOVADA has opened at NYJ+7-110, and with line movement like that, we'll hold out for +7.5, or a potential buy to 7.5.

[CarolinaRugby]

I got NE -6 and HOU -3, but im staying away from that dallas game, don't feel confident in either,

[MobFade]

Some more leans:

OAKLAND on the road in Cincy. Oakland's public stock is in the gutter, while everyone seems to have forgotten how mediocre Cincinnati is. I'd look for Oakland to bounce back and am not even including CIN in my teasers. Line is +8-110 for OAK but looks like it should be getting better. Im going to wait to see if it can be had at 9, but would feel good even at 7.5.

ATLANTA is coming off a close call to an inferior opponent, and a loss. There might not be a hotter team in the NFL right now than TB. Atlanta is PK-110 on the road right now, and I just picked that up for a unit.

PLAY NOW:
ATL PK-110 // LEGENDS

[eggman8]

Like the jets play, against you on the other 2. BOL

[mnwild11]

Do not totally agree with your statement of CIN being "mediocre" Care to explain? Their offense can score points, Dalton has looked good, and they have one of the most explosive WR in the league this year

[mnwild11]

granted thats a small analysis, but those were my take aways from the few games I have seen CIN play this year

[MobFade]

Do not totally agree with your statement of CIN being "mediocre" Care to explain? Their offense can score points, Dalton has looked good, and they have one of the most explosive WR in the league this year

Sure. My feel of the Bengals after watching their games is that their offense is boom or bust. They rely on the deep ball to AJ Green against weak secondaries to build momentum. Without that, they don't have much else to turn to. Their run game is not good.

Their streaky play can be attributed to youth at the skill positions. Cincy feels like the Detroit offense last year after Best went out, but AJ Green has another year before he is Calvin Johnson.

Now my knock against the Bengals this week isn't against the team so much as the line. What would this line have been before this past weeks CIN win and OAK loss? Probably CIN-6. What about the week before when OAK lost and CIN beat the NYG? Probably closer to -3 or -3.5.

The amount of line value here IMO opinion is essentially teaser value. Bengals are hot last 2 games after dropping 4 straight, Raiders have been overrated all year, and now are underrated.

[MobFade]

More leans:

Tennessee at JAX. Very slight lean here and will probably stay away, but Tennessee off the Bye. I think they have been underperforming most of the season, and don't think JAX gets a 3 point homefield advantage. That said, is Tennessee 4-6 points better than JAX on a neutral field? Probably not. Henne seemed capable, but he has always turned the ball over too much. We'll wait and see where this line goes.

Seattle at Miami. I said a couple weeks ago that Miami will probably be a road team because as with JAX, they don't have a great home fanbase right now. There is some line value with Miami, but there is a perception that Seattle can only win at home. Public is 66% on Seattle coming off their Bye, but I don't love either side of this.

[MobFade]

Couple more games I don't love:

Denver laying over 10 at KC. Denver rolling, KC still in the dog house, but they also turn the ball over way too much ... To the Tune of about 3 a game. Normally this is the type of situation where I would be all over the dog, but turnovers are a killer. I don't like laying 10 and the hook. This is the NFL. Might stay away unless line gets to 9.5, which it won't.

Indianapolis hosting Buffalo. BUF hasn't looked bad, but they're not good either. Staying close with New England and beating a struggling Miami team isn't a case to the contrary. On the other hand, I was glad that IND got whooped as hard as they did because the public would get off their nuts. Unfortunately that hasn't been the case with about 75% action on IND. Luck is still good, their defense just got destroyed by Brady. Fitzpatrick wont be able to do it to near the same degree.

2 plays for right now because I noticed Top Bet still has TEN at -2.5-120:

TEN-2.5-120 // Top Bet
IND-3-115 // Top Bet

These are both public plays, so get them before they move.

[MobFade]

Just booked this pretty weird line:

BAL-PK-110 // LEGENDS


I don't see what the books see. San Diego's home field advantage isn't that great. I don't see the 1pm pacific crowd generating enough noise to cause any promlems for Baltimore. I liked SD last week as a team with value after a rough stretch, but this isn't their turnaround game.

[chargers4222]

you should just bet thanksgiving then not bet sunday at all. just a warning

[MobFade]

you should just bet thanksgiving then not bet sunday at all. just a warning

Thanks for the cryptic hot tips, bro

[MobFade]

Booked a teaser for late Sunday games because as Doc says, a child of 3 could do these.

6 Point 2 Team Tease
GB+8.5/STL+8.5 // Bookmaker

To recap the bets we have:
HOU-3-115
ATL-PK-110
TEN-2.5-120
IND-3-115
BAL-PK-110
Tease GB/STL +8.5

[MobFade]

Squarest play of the week, but whatever. Vick doubtful, Shady questionable. I'm all in (for 1 unit)

CAR-2-110 // BOOKMAKER


With how hard I've been on the public side for the last 3 weeks, and how hard they've been owning the books, I would've thought Vegas had learned to set better lines, but we get to listen to Doc cry about getting crushed again this week which is fun.

Still waiting for some favorable line movement before taking DAL, OAK, and maybe the NYJ. I know I'll be staying away from SEA/MIA as I now like MIA, but would never bet against SEA. Gonna have to think about the SF/NOR game until probably gameday, and still waiting on MIN/CHI.

[MobFade]

CLEVELAND is the lean against PIT. Or should I say James Harrison and a bunch of backups. Line is CLE+1 which is crazy, but I guess we're a few years away from CLE being a home favorite against PIT. Gonna wait to see if this gets any better. PIT is the public team, but wouldnt be surprised if public backs CLE either.

[MobFade]

Before the sharps pound it any more:

DAL-3-125 // BOVADA
NYJ+7.5-115 // TOP BET



Note: bought NYJ from 7-100. Also sweating HOU-3 today. GL everyone

[16johnnymac]

You pretty positive on jets winning I got a teaser with pat - 1/2 and another - 1 1/2

Before the sharps pound it any more:

DAL-3-125 // BOVADA
NYJ+7.5-115 // TOP BET



Note: bought NYJ from 7-100. Also sweating HOU-3 today. GL everyone

[MobFade]

Not sure jets win, just that they keep it within a TD. If this game was in NE it would be -13.5. That seems like a little much to me.

Whewwwww. What a sweat for that HOU game. 0-0-1 so far. Dallas should be an easy win and then boom or bust with the Jets

[MobFade]

You pretty positive on jets winning I got a teaser with pat - 1/2 and another - 1 1/2

Ya that's not a bad tease.

[MobFade]

nyg-2.5-110 // top bet

[MobFade]

OAK+9-115 // BOVADA
CHI-6.5-110 // BOOKMAKER

Play on CLE if it gets to 3