Thursday Night Football / Bills - Dolphins

MobFade · 11-13-12, 06:06 PM

Bills looked competent last week, Miami didn't. Perfect spot to take advantage of some line value. Would wait it out til gameday to let 75% public money juice this line a little more. Maybe to 2 or even 2.5, buy hook to 3.

Parligod · 11-13-12, 06:36 PM

I lean Buffalo but this game deserves in-depth analysis because it might be worthy of a big play for more experienced cappers. There's several factors that come to mind off the top of my head. Miami seems to pride themselves more on defensive abilities although lately they haven't impressed. Their QB was previously turnover-free for 3 straight weeks and then looked horrid last week at home. His poor play was not the only thing to blame. I disagreed with Miami coach (whom I'm also not impressed with) for benching Bush after the fumble because Reggie is one of the few brighter spots on their offense (and again - lately that's not saying much). Steelers or Giants can do this because they have multiple RBs who can do the job. Miami does not. Their backup RB is young and not yet capable of handling a 3-down workload nor may he ever be.
Buffalo - at 3-6 they've been crushed mainly by elite teams. Both Patriots contests they've put up massive points and lost last week by 6. The injury to F. Jax hurts in some ways but CJ Spiller is arguably the most explosive back in the NFL right now who hasn't really had enough snaps (he's averaging 7.3 YPC and over 600 total rushing yards this season). Just look at what he did this season when F. Jackson was out. I think the edge in the game largely depends on which QB will step up and perform this week. That said I have more faith in Buffalo's QB than Miami's. Miami can be run on, giving up over 130 rushing yards in the past 4 games. Buffalo will exploit this. But Buffalo's D is also poor and they're giving up over 30 PPG. Either way it should be an interesting shootout.

MOONCRICKET · 11-13-12, 09:30 PM

dog has covered all but 1 thursday night game this year and the lone fave W was Indy over Jax which the whole world knew was going to happen - i was shocked to see how many of the Top 20 in the Supercontest (at LVH formerly Hilton) took Jax last Thursday - maybe they were just riding the trend and looking for parity as well with luck abusing miami for 433 - anderson and kelsay out along with depleted secondary for Buf spells 31-38 points for miami and when fitzy HAS to pass he's not nearly as good as when he's throwing off play-action - i think spiller will be a non-factor by halftime - early in the year i think most folks would have said buf was the better team but right now clearly (regardless of who they lost to and how) miami is simply the better, more-disciplined club - miami finishes the year at .500 or better while the bills have no chance to accomplish this - fitzpatrick is no luck thats for sure - the only reason tannehill isnt better than fitzP is 2 years - he has a great feel and instincts and can make all the throws - FitzP cant throw the ball more than 50 yards in the air and stevie J will be seeing double all night

i usually dont post that often - i use the forum to hear about all the great locks so i can go oppo but i felt compelled to chime in today - this game is a gift to gamblers - a miami/over parlay - it wont win if buffalo doesnt score 10 but if they score 10+ it will go over - disregard the total dropping from 46 to 45 and instead only consider where it opened - there will likely be weather thursday night also so setting this at 46 when mia D is vastly superior to NE only makes sense if the game goes over - i dont think nfl games are fixed but i do think people that know much more than i do set the lines where they set them for a reason

good luck the rest of the year friends and be sure to drill this parlay miami +1.5 with over 45 (using MIA moneyline would be advised as well in a same par)

bostonbruins · 11-14-12, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by MobFade

Bills looked competent last week, Miami didn't. Perfect spot to take advantage of some line value. Would wait it out til gameday to let 75% public money juice this line a little more. Maybe to 2 or even 2.5, buy hook to 3.

I put zero stock in MIAMI's offensive performance last week, its irrelevant , every team has bad games. If anything it should fire them up for this game , an important game , against a pourous defense.

Jeff Grant · 11-14-12, 01:37 PM

SmittyZ28 · 11-14-12, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by bostonbruins

I put zero stock in MIAMI's offensive performance last week, its irrelevant , every team has bad games. If anything it should fire them up for this game , an important game , against a pourous defense.

I agree with this, also Miami is almost an auto-fade at home. Much better road team and a nationally televised division game, going to be a good one. I agree with Mob no action on this game for me yet, really hoping Miami moves to +2.5-3 before I make a play it is at +2 now. Game could definitely go either way but should be a fun game if you like to watch RB's

SmittyZ28 · 11-14-12, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by Parligod

I lean Buffalo but this game deserves in-depth analysis because it might be worthy of a big play for more experienced cappers. There's several factors that come to mind off the top of my head. Miami seems to pride themselves more on defensive abilities although lately they haven't impressed. Their QB was previously turnover-free for 3 straight weeks and then looked horrid last week at home. His poor play was not the only thing to blame. I disagreed with Miami coach (whom I'm also not impressed with) for benching Bush after the fumble because Reggie is one of the few brighter spots on their offense (and again - lately that's not saying much). Steelers or Giants can do this because they have multiple RBs who can do the job. Miami does not. Their backup RB is young and not yet capable of handling a 3-down workload nor may he ever be.
Buffalo - at 3-6 they've been crushed mainly by elite teams. Both Patriots contests they've put up massive points and lost last week by 6. The injury to F. Jax hurts in some ways but CJ Spiller is arguably the most explosive back in the NFL right now who hasn't really had enough snaps (he's averaging 7.3 YPC and over 600 total rushing yards this season). Just look at what he did this season when F. Jackson was out. I think the edge in the game largely depends on which QB will step up and perform this week. That said I have more faith in Buffalo's QB than Miami's. Miami can be run on, giving up over 130 rushing yards in the past 4 games. Buffalo will exploit this. But Buffalo's D is also poor and they're giving up over 30 PPG. Either way it should be an interesting shootout.

Sorry but this just is not true. Last week Johnson was the first 100 YD rusher this team has allowed in almost 2 years. This year;

Last 4 games before Tenn:

Colts Rushed for a team total 96 YDS
Jets rushed for 98 Yds total S. Green 15 for 77
Rams total 162 yds rushing spread out of 3 carriers
Bengals 75 total team yards
Beginning of the year they held Foster at home to 76 YDS on 15 or 16 carries

Even after last weeks debacle Miami is ranked 5th against the run giving up less than 95 YpG on the ground.

Bills:

DEAD LAST against the run giving up 163 YpG!!!!! This game should be won on the ground like most Thursday games. I have a lot of respect for the Bills backs and what they did to my Pats last week. Game will be close, but I will take the 5th ranked run defense against the bottom ranked any day of the week, especially on a Thursday night game.

JohnnyBrooklyn · 11-14-12, 08:32 PM

Bills 38 Fins 17

Crapple · 11-14-12, 11:03 PM

Bills roll!

KTnamja · 11-15-12, 09:43 AM

i like it.

Roscoe_Word · 11-15-12, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by bostonbruins

I have this game at MIA -3 , over / under 48 . Is MIA defense suddenly not going to show up? They are giving up 20 a game , and should be more focused after the TEN game.

This is a huge game for both teams but MIA defense plus Buffalo's inability to stop teams from putting up 30+ certainly favor the Dolphins.

MIA +1.5

Gotta agree there..... 5Ds reduced juce has MIA +2.5??....little strange...GL tonite...