Lean for Monday 11/17/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Lean for Monday 11/17/08
    Okay I am one to read moneylines with respect to the amount of points being offered.

    For tonight's game the line is spot on for the favorite, Buffalo. A 5 point spread should be accompanied with a moneyline of -240/+190. At Greek.com, my sportsbook the line is -240/+200.

    There are several things in favor of the Bills in this game. The first of which is their record at home against AFC North teams, which is a sterling 5-1 ats. They go into this game having underperformed and dropping 3 straight inner divisio games, which does not put them in a good position. Obviously they need a win at home to stir things up even if it isn't in the division. But they need to get back to playing well as they can redeem themselves when they get shots at all three of the teams that have beaten them within the division (Jets, Dolphins and Pats) down the stretch.

    Buffalo is also playing with revenge in this game, as they lost 8-0 against the Browns last year.

    The Browns come into this game with many of the veteran players questioning the heart of the younger players. It has been a locker room buzz that the team as a whole is giving up when they get down. Not good when facing the Bills as in those 5 ats wins against the AFC North at home they have beaten those clubs by an average of 14.2 points.

    Lay the chalk fellas,

    Bills-5.5
  • demize21
    SBR MVP
    • 11-03-08
    • 3541

    #2
    i disagree
    Comment
    • DeluxeLiner
      SBR MVP
      • 01-29-08
      • 4132

      #3
      Like the Bills as well... i haven't given up on them yet. Bills are a solid team and i think they are getting more flack than they deserve for their recent losses. The Browns, as you said, are having some serious locker room problems. Quinn is still untested, and if anyone wants to say "Hey! Look at that Broncos game he was pretty solid", Broncos have a pretty thin defense so I think Quinn should be better tested during this game. Bills at home is not getting as much love as it deserves.

      Only thing is I don't know why you are getting it at 5.5. I might suggest you shop around a little.
      Comment
      • wangichu
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-07-08
        • 946

        #4
        yeah, i still got away with fading the browns last game, despite quinn's solid performance, but this is definitely a much better D in buffalo and should not only get more pressure on quinn, but they should also focus a lot more on the short, under passing game. the broncos respected the deep ball a little too much for a first time starter and as such, quinn was able to burn them under on the short routes all day. When they force quinn deep, i expect at least a pick or two, especially with McGee back for BUF. Lewis should definitely struggle more here too against Stroud and that sound line that buffalo sports. Add to that, this is brady's first start outside of his friendly confines, and that first road game can rattle a young QB, especially in a cold and hostile environment like buffalo.

        The jets were able to sneak out of buffalo with a win, but the jets are a much better team than the browns and with buffalo catching the same spread against an inferior team at home, after losing with that spread in their last home game, it's definitely time to jump on the bills.

        The books are listing balanced money on this game, which tells me that they dangled the 5 pts to make sure that ppl were on the browns, but it really seems like the bills win by 8 and 9 pts at home a lot, so i'm not going to worry about 5 pts (especially since it's all pretty much covered by 2 FGs or a TD, so it's kinda the same thing past 3).

        Not that anyone needed to hear me after CK dropped his take, but since i agree with him and was just waiting for him to open forum on this game, i always like to give my reasoning for the play, which is not because of his write up, but more so supported by his write up.

        BUF -5

        ... marinating on a small parlay on BUF/Under... the under hits a lot in buffalo and weather should encourage that... holding off for now, but want to see if anyone can convince me one way or the other.
        Comment
        • patsfan2727
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-28-07
          • 579

          #5
          Originally posted by demize21
          i disagree
          really strong analysis here! you really make a good point.
          Comment
          • demize21
            SBR MVP
            • 11-03-08
            • 3541

            #6
            thanks just my opinion the browns produce another MNF upset cle ML (+190)
            Comment
            • maddogmadden86
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-08-08
              • 898

              #7
              cant agree with you guys more wang nailed it right with the whole fact that the bills will be able to shut down the short passing game, denvers Defensive coordnater was a moron for not being able to stop a tight end all game, there going to make quinn go for the deeper passes and end up throwing a couple picks even though i loved watching quinn in notre dame i dont see him performing as good as he did in denver i wish the line was at -3 but it wont be a close game going with the bills and laying the smack down
              Comment
              • demize21
                SBR MVP
                • 11-03-08
                • 3541

                #8
                Originally posted by demize21
                thanks just my opinion the browns produce another MNF upset cle ML (+190)
                QUOTE=demize21;1204610]my plays for tonight did pretty well with dallas so im gonna gamble a little
                browns ml (+190)3u
                browns +5 3u

                2 team 7 pt. tease 1.5u
                cle +12
                under 48.5[/QUOTE]
                Comment
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