Best way to hedge this for MNF?

[EricZ116]

Have a parlay that was 1.9 units to win 5, last leg is New Orleans. I like to get parlays in with the MNF favorite to give me some interesting hedge opportunities to think over for the day.

What's the best way to hedge?

Eagles +3 -130? 2.6 units to win 2, hope for some sort of middle?
Eagles +3.5 -155? Not really considering this one too much.
Eagles +125 SU?

I'm thinking the +3 is my best value.

[Deol]

Tease the Eagles tonight with BAL next week and you have a really good shot at middling. I'm in a similar boat, I reallly need NWO to win by under 10 to hit 3 pretty decent tickets. Or wait for a good live line and increase your chances of hedging.

[EricZ116]

Not looking to string this out past today lol.

Played with percentages and made a spreadsheet.

If 23% of games end between 1 and 3, and if the Saints have a 57% shot of winning (based on ML), I'll say that the likelihood of a middle is 13.31%. It might not be 100% accurate, but that is good enough.

With a 43% shot of the Eagles winning (off of ML again), my highest expected value is to not hedge at all. It ends up being 2.016 units expected value.

Even though the numbers tell me what to do... There's just something appealing about being guaranteed to at least break even.

Though I might just wait for a live line I like too.