NFL Week 9 Predictions: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers

[Jeff Grant]

[Jeff Grant]

Kansas City vs. San Diego


-AFC West division is still up for grabs (Denver 4-3, SD 3-4, OAK 3-4, KC 1-6)
-Both teams had their bye week before losing on Sunday
-Virtually a wash, KC played at home, SD on the road
-Previous meeting, 20-0 Chargers midway through the 2nd quarter
-QB Matt Cassel has a 62.3 passer rating, lowest against any opponent that he’s faced in three or more games


-Haven’t led in regulation this season, only win in OT over the Saints
-Lead the league by committing 25 turnovers, four in Sunday’s loss to the Raiders coming out of a bye week, six versus Chargers in a 37-20 loss earlier this year
-RB Jamaal Charles touched the ball just eight times for 10 yards


-Haven’t scored an offensive TD in two games this season, hasn’t happened during the Norv Turner era
-Missing Darren Sproles and Vincent Jackson
-”Not able to make plays as a team right now,” Norv Turner
-Since last year, 0-4 ATS as division home favorites, failing to cover by 11 points
-Won all five games as home favorites of 7.5 to 10 points since 2010 (4-1 ATS, UNDER 4-1)


-Last three meetings in San Diego, Chargers outscored the Chiefs by a 59-7 margin in the first half, scored first all three times
-Chiefs averaging 3.0 points per game on the road in the first half
-Road teams in Thursday night divisional battles are averaging 4.6 points per game in the opening 30 minutes

[fergie's balls]

Jeff these posts are very vanilla. you need to bang a black chick or something.

[heywally]

Thanks Jeff. One of my favorite plays this week is the Under 49.5 tease; need 6.5 points to do that. Everything points to the Chargers running a very conservative run-oriented/short passes offense in this one (though IT IS Norv) and that is also K.C's forte, if they have a forte. Both defenses pretty decent with S.D. excelling at stopping the run and Vs. non-elite QB's. Even the Charger's Goodman, a decent KR guy, is out. Maybe the biggest danger to the Under are turnovers in the wrong part of the field, pick 6's.

http://www.chargers.com/news/article-1/Chargers-Could-Be-Down-to-Just-Three-Receivers/70ad6016-9698-4e5d-b8bd-538e5636c099

[fergie's balls]

heywally not crazy about under 49.5, you really want to get to 51, that is the highest key # to remember when teasing unders.

[rjpickswinners]

My pick

I'm taking sd -9 +110

[heywally]

heywally not crazy about under 49.5, you really want to get to 51, that is the highest key # to remember when teasing unders.

> 51 is a nice under #, you are correct. None-the-less, I see this game as a muck fest, with decent clock killing running games and am taking a shot with U49.5 packaged with G.B. -5.5 at home Vs. the lowly Cards, who cannot score :0 GL

[rocky16]

KC is dogshit. Throw SD in a teaser and don't worry about it.

[baller188]

Great analysis Jeff

[Jeff Grant]

Great analysis Jeff

Appreciate the support

Here's a quote on this game from William Hill's Jimmy Vaccaro:

"Chiefs are in trouble. Norv Turner is in bigger trouble. I say look for an upset."

[tripled83]

I really can't see kcc scoring much and San Diego has the talent to win. I think the score will be about 31-10 chargers.

[SmittyZ28]

Line is at 7.5, anyone thinking it will drop to -7? I am thinking it is more likely to go to -8, cant imagine there are that many people on KC

[SteveRyan]

Line is at 7.5, anyone thinking it will drop to -7? I am thinking it is more likely to go to -8, cant imagine there are that many people on KC

It's more likely to go to -8, but I like Jeff Grants perspective here on betting SD 1st half based upon the fact that KC has not led at any point during a single game this season.

In week 4, SD was up 21 points at the half @ KC.

Aside from weeks 2 and 8, SD has put up decent points in the 1st half.

[Jeff Grant]

It's more likely to go to -8, but I like Jeff Grants perspective here on betting SD 1st half based upon the fact that KC has not led at any point during a single game this season.

In week 4, SD was up 21 points at the half @ KC.

Aside from weeks 2 and 8, SD has put up decent points in the 1st half.

Good luck tonight

[Mr Handicapable]

If anything I like Over 42.5 even though under is trending between these 2 turds.

Cassel hands out turnovers like Halloween candy which is good for over and Rivers should get SD out to a nice lead. Cassel has had fantasy value (never any actual value) in the past by putting up nice garbage stats. I see something like SD 31-20.......maybe 28-10 going into the 4th.

[fergie's balls]

Jeff, fyi Bleacher Report sucks balls. the 'slideshow' format is probably good for page views, but annoying as fukk. site intended for the most casual of sports fans who don't want to sound like fuking morons at the water cooler. after a google it's become automatic to scroll past your shit links. TW bought a pc of shite.

[heywally]

If anything I like Over 42.5 even though under is trending between these 2 turds.

Cassel hands out turnovers like Halloween candy which is good for over and Rivers should get SD out to a nice lead. Cassel has had fantasy value (never any actual value) in the past by putting up nice garbage stats. I see something like SD 31-20.......maybe 28-10 going into the 4th.

Think it depends on where and when the turnovers are but I look for very conservative offenses from both sides in this one, with an emphasis on ball control and hanging on to same (yea, don't know if they can do that) .... both teams have potentially good clock killing running games and decent defenses. S.D. is down to three healthy WR's, two who they signed within the last two weeks (Floyd is the key healthy guy) and defenses are triple-teaming Gates. Rivers has lost confidence and I think the only logical choice here (but it's NORV) is to run the ball and focus on not throwing intercepts so that means more quick and shorter pass attempts for S.D. I expect the same from K.C.'s offense.

This should be a slogging, muck fest game. I'm down for U49.5 via a teaser.

[Bluedragon]

Kansas City vs. San Diego

-Virtually a wash, KC played at home, SD on the road

Great vid, as always.

What do you mean by the "wash" comment?

Thanks.

[Jeff Grant]

Great vid, as always.

What do you mean by the "wash" comment?

Thanks.

In terms of travel due to this game being played on a Thursday

Chargers were on the East Coast, both teams off the bye before losing last week

[Jeff Grant]

Jeff, fyi Bleacher Report sucks balls. the 'slideshow' format is probably good for page views, but annoying as fukk. site intended for the most casual of sports fans who don't want to sound like fuking morons at the water cooler. after a google it's become automatic to scroll past your shit links. TW bought a pc of shite.

Not a fan of the slideshows as well, but couldn't pass up the exposure of being the site's featured sports betting columnist - even though I've scaled back that responsibility since joining the SBR Forum team

[fergie's balls]

Good video by the way

[Jeff Grant]

Good video by the way

Thank you

[SteveRyan]

Nice pick Jeff. 1st half was money.