Don't want to take too much out of it, but i believe fading these teams is about 75% win rate this season. i'll go through each week and post later. the new collective bargaining agreement that states in bye week players get 4 (or 5?) mandatory days off, no show, no meetings, nothing. only vacation of the year for them. maybe these guys already got their heads in the Jerry Jones 90s FuckHouse and not 100% in game prior to bye?
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At first glance I thought there would be no chance this would hold true, seeing that teams often want to head in to their bye week on a positive note, playing harder for the win before their rest. But your theory seems to hold up, I did the dirty work for you. Since week one there has been 20 teams that have played the game preceeding their bye week. These teams have a straight up record of 6-14, and an ATS record of 4-17. Shocking, and can't believe no one has picked up on this. Obviously this wont hold true every week, but with this pattern in mind, this weeks FADES would be St Louis & New England (good luck figuring that one out), New York Jets, and San Fran. Pretty interestingComment -
not only are jets heading to bye, they deflated after tough loss and mia fresh off a bye,,lots of reasons to like phins... i would think if any team doesnt experience this a harbaugh coached one be a likely candidate to buck the trend, however zona typically plays them tough anyways so i could see them not covering just based off that..Comment -
exactly - obviously since NE and St Louis play each other we take them out. that leaves us to fade SF and the Jets this weekend. agreed a harbough team doesn't jive with this, but i'm going to play each small and follow the next week also. 4-17 is pretty nuts. a friend of mine told me about the trend, not going to pretend i came up with it. looking ahead, the 2 teams to fade in week 9 are Washington (home vs Carolina) and Cleveland (home vs Balt).Comment -
i made an error, it is suppose to be 4-16 but nonetheless ill probably follow you here with 2 small plays.Comment -
bumping this because it's still holding strong. week 8 the teams with bye following week were 1-1 ATS, and week 9 they were 0-2. record on the season of those teams with bye in following week now standsat 5-19 ATS. teams to fade next week are Vikings (vs Detroit), Giants (at Cincy), Seahawks (vs Jets), & TN (at Miami).Comment
