Bears -3.5 is my biggest bet of the season so far

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  • chantrain
    SBR MVP
    • 03-14-11
    • 3244

    #1
    Bears -3.5 is my biggest bet of the season so far
    Which pretty much means I'm putting $40 on it, but still...

    I feel confident in this. Sure, Alshon Jefferey is out with a hand injury but.... Lovie Smith is 5-3 after the bye and usually does a good job coaching the team up to be ready after a bye week.

    The Bears defense is completely healthy, their D line and secondary has never been this good. The Lions just got news that Jahvid Best is not healthy yet which means they'll be forced to throw it a ton just like they usually do. That means there will be opportunity for a lot of picks for a defense that focuses on interceptions and scoring off the picks they get.

    The Bears offense has suffered a setback with the injury to Alshon Jeffrey. At the time of his injury he was the most productive rookie WR in the nfl, leading all rookies in reception yards and touchdowns. Bears still have plenty of weapons though, and will likely be bolstered by the return of Earl Bennett who Cutler has a good chemistry with ever since their college days.

    The Lions special teams ranks one of the worst in the league, and Devin Hester has a knack for lighting it up on Monday nights, as does Jay Cutler. Jay has excellent stats on Monday Night Football, he's 5-1 with 13 TDs and 3 interceptions and a QBR of 105.

    All signs point to a Bears win at home. I bought some points just incase.
  • chantrain
    SBR MVP
    • 03-14-11
    • 3244

    #2
    bump...no thoughts on this?
    Comment
    • hurricane1091
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-01-12
      • 713

      #3
      MNF...wait till tonight to worry about that.
      Comment
      • zilchy
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-31-12
        • 695

        #4
        Leaning Bears as well but what's the reasoning for buying to -3.5? Sure it's MNF and it'll probably be a one possession game but I'd either buy them down to -2.5/-3 or better yet tease them with the over if I didn't feel like laying 6.5.
        Comment
        • hurricane1091
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-01-12
          • 713

          #5
          Ok I guess I'll bite here. It's primetime, it's a struggling Detroit team who just got a good win, and it's a division game. Bears are as square as it gets. Take DETROIT.
          Comment
          • chantrain
            SBR MVP
            • 03-14-11
            • 3244

            #6
            My book didn't allow buying more than 3 points :/

            I don't really think its needed because I think they'll win by at least 1 TD but, whatever.
            Comment
            • chantrain
              SBR MVP
              • 03-14-11
              • 3244

              #7
              Originally posted by hurricane1091
              Ok I guess I'll bite here. It's primetime, it's a struggling Detroit team who just got a good win, and it's a division game. Bears are as square as it gets. Take DETROIT.
              The Lions just don't do anything better than the Bears do. There's no real justification for taking the Lions here. Lovie Smith has won 5 out of his last 6 games coming off the bye. Jay Cutler has great stats on MNF. The defense is lights out. The running game is amazing right now with Forte and Bush.

              There's always a chance that the Lions D line penetrates the Bears O line and shakes Cutler, but at home I don't think this will happen, especially not coming off a bye.
              Comment
              • hurricane1091
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-01-12
                • 713

                #8
                If you are so confident you would not have posted this thread.

                Take DETROIT +6.5 and thank me Tuesday. This game will 100% be decided because of the 4th quarter. It will come down to Detroit needing to get a FG or TD and them likely screwing it up.
                Comment
                • chantrain
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-14-11
                  • 3244

                  #9
                  If this game comes down to the 4th quarter, that's good news for the Bears because they tend to start slow and finish fast. Jay Cutler is 2nd in the league amongst Qb's in the 4th quarter with a 118 QBR this season thus far.
                  Comment
                  • hurricane1091
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-01-12
                    • 713

                    #10
                    I don't see the point in paying for points here. You clearly don't trust the Bears to win by a TD so you bought 3 points, and yet you would rather pay for points & possibly still lose the bet rather than to just take Detroit at +6.5?
                    Comment
                    • chantrain
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-14-11
                      • 3244

                      #11
                      I think the Bears will win by a TD OR MORE, that's why I don't take the Lions +6.5
                      Comment
                      • Jeff Grant
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-13-11
                        • 1715

                        #12
                        I'd be a little concerned about the Bears being 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF games as a home favorite, especially when playing a division rival
                        Comment
                        • freakydave
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-23-11
                          • 1106

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Jeff Grant
                          I'd be a little concerned about the Bears being 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF games as a home favorite, especially when playing a division rival
                          Maybe this is why he bought the points.
                          Comment
                          • chantrain
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-14-11
                            • 3244

                            #14
                            Lettts gooooo
                            Comment
                            • matt1216
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-27-11
                              • 14683

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Jeff Grant
                              I'd be a little concerned about the Bears being 0-7 ATS in their last seven MNF games as a home favorite, especially when playing a division rival
                              Im on Lions here +6.5 and Lions ML. Cutler shits the bed in huge games. This is a massive game for Det, They need this bad
                              Comment
                              • chantrain
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-14-11
                                • 3244

                                #16
                                What do you not get about the fact that Cutler has a 105 QBR in monday night football games, 5-1 with 13 TDs and only 3 Ints? I guess none of those were huge games.
                                Comment
                                • chantrain
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-14-11
                                  • 3244

                                  #17
                                  cha ching. Cash it.

                                  Close game, thats why I bought the points
                                  Comment
                                  • ThaTopMoron
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 04-30-10
                                    • 27020

                                    #18
                                    good job, its not that easy to know when to be patient and wait for golden opportunities in the NFL to go big
                                    Comment
                                    • hurricane1091
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-01-12
                                      • 713

                                      #19
                                      Lions.
                                      Comment
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