Who's pounding Denver tomorrow?

[SteveRyan]

Most everyone lost their ass today in NFL.

So, a ton of folks will be trying to make up for it with tomorrow nights game....especially since Houston is about to lose tonight.

I suspect that Denver will get pounded and the line may move to Denver -1 or -2 depending. 65% is already on Denver. It will move.

If you're on Denver, now may be the time to get it at +1 before it switches.

[Sport_Fish]

The squares got burried today on the 3 biggest square plays...i have a feeling this is another burial waiting to happen.

Broncos seems like the easiest play of the week, which = FADE

[SteveRyan]

The squares got burried today on the 3 biggest square plays...i have a feeling this is another burial waiting to happen.

Broncos seems like the easiest play of the week, which = FADE

Only 2 favorites covered today.

Tampa
Jets

8 dogs won straight up and 3 dogs covered.

Might wanna take that into consideration before fading Denver.

[MobFade]

Vegas absolutely annihilated the public today, but this is the one they get wrong. Everyone that got their money in on Denver as a dog will be cashing that check because they're going to win outright. Denver ground game won't get going, but Peyton will blow this game open in the second half once SD has to turn to Rivers and he gets lit up. Denver wins 27-17.

[MobFade]

Also this was not a situation where you have SD coming off a demoralizing loss. They got screwed out of the W against NO on the road in primetime, and won their game before that. Denver is much better than their record. The line was not inflated, and there has been significant line movement w/ Denver +2 early in the week, and now they are PK or -1, with closing line going to end up at DEN-1.

[haserfauld]

I think my only play is Manning over 1.5TD @ any line under -200

[Lakers714]

Only 2 favorites covered today.

Tampa
Jets

8 dogs won straight up and 3 dogs covered.

Might wanna take that into consideration before fading Denver.

Wtf does this have to do with the MNF game? R u kidding me? I didn't know the Broncos/Chargers game was dependent on the other games already played. Each game is independent. Your angle is just like saying it's been red the last 10 spins so the next one has to be black. C'mon bro, just cap the game.

[Lakers714]

Btw, I do think the Broncos win SU but will wait to see how the line moves before making an actual play.

[A4K]

Vegas absolutely annihilated the public today, but this is the one they get wrong. Everyone that got their money in on Denver as a dog will be cashing that check because they're going to win outright. Denver ground game won't get going, but Peyton will blow this game open in the second half once SD has to turn to Rivers and he gets lit up. Denver wins 27-17.

I strongly disagree. Peyton Manning has a mediocre record when facing the Chargers. I believe he has 12 touchdowns to 16 interceptions against them. Chargers seem to have his number.

I'm expecting San Diego to do exactly what New England did against Denver, pound the ball. The Broncos got run over by Stevan Ridley and it really opened up the Patriots high octane pass game. The Patriots had the Broncos on their heels all afternoon and the final score was not indicative of how badly the Broncos were dominated on the road.

Ryan Matthews is a better tailback than Ridley, in my opinion. Matthews has great acceleration and seems to hit holes just as they are opening. Matthews missed almost the entire pre-season and finally seems to be hitting his stride. The one knock on Matthews is that he fumbles the ball away going for that extra yard. If you watched the Chargers @ Saints game, you saw how the Chargers put Jackie Battle into the game when the Chargers got near the goal line.

If San Diego can get the ground game working and control the time of possession, I think the Broncos will be playing catch up like they have in EVERY road game they've played this season. The Broncos can't defend the run and their secondary is not exactly striking fear into the hearts of any offense.

Both teams are coming off of tough road losses, but the Chargers were the only team that should have won. Had it not been for a crown to the chest penalty on San Diego, they probably would've beaten the Saints. The Broncos on the other hand, were never in contention against the Patriots.

The Broncos have a much better secondary, but that won't help them much if they are getting gashed by the run.

I think the line is right where it should be at a PICK. I'd lean San Diego because they are at home, have an explosive tailback, and a decent history against Mr. Manning.

Can the Broncos win?

Sure, Peyton Manning can light the field up at any time. Only a fool would say otherwise. Phillip Rivers is not exactly a slouch. While Rivers is nowhere near the QB that Manning is, he can put up BIG numbers with his TE and Malcolm Floyd going after jump balls.

[Lakers714]

A4K, great analysis. However, like I posted before and depending on how the line moves tomorrow, unless its RLM, the Broncos are the play. Line opened at +3 and now at PK. So again, unless its RLM, According to the way the line moved already, Vegas is enticing us to take the Chargers. All your points are valid. I'm gonna make a play based on how I interpret the line movement tomorrow but leaning Broncos for now.

[Lakers714]

But who knows, this is the WW NFL where anything can happen.

[A4K]

A4K, great analysis. However, like I posted before and depending on how the line moves tomorrow, unless its RLM, the Broncos are the play. Line opened at +3 and now at PK. So again, unless its RLM, According to the way the line moved already, Vegas is enticing us to take the Chargers. All your points are valid. I'm gonna make a play based on how I interpret the line movement tomorrow but leaning Broncos for now.

I can't fault you for that. This is one of the more evenly matched games of the week, in my opinion.

These two are basically playing for the AFC Worst crown. Chiefs and Raiders are all but dead. I wouldn't be surprised if either team won. They have a recent history of splitting games on the season and most come down to the final possession. IF the Chargers pull off a victory it will give them a 2 game lead in the division with a tie breaker. If the Broncos win, the Broncos will be tied with the Chargers for first, but would have the edge with the tie breaker. Broncos need this game a lot more than the Chargers do, in my opinion. A Broncos loss puts them 2 games below .500 with NO road wins.

This will probably be a no play unless I can get the home team at +odds.

[davidx191]

Manning always fukks up big time against Chargers

[Lakers714]

I've been there done that when trying to cap games. I can spend a lot of time looking at numbers, records, etc... Sometimes it's best to keep it simple and not over think it. That's when I'm at my best. Not saying I bet blindly, but sometimes, it's best to not over think it. In this case, like u said, the Broncos need this game a lot more than the Chargers do and 1 more week of practice for Peyton getting more in tune with his squad. The Packers needed last nights game more than the Texans did right? Who was the better overall QB going into the game? The better QB and the team that needed it more for their season ended up winning the game. I really think the same thing happens for MNF.

[Lakers714]

Manning always fukks up big time against Chargers

Then it's easy, bet the Chargers. What's there to discuss?

[A4K]

I've been there done that when trying to cap games. I can spend a lot of time looking at numbers, records, etc... Sometimes it's best to keep it simple and not over think it. That's when I'm at my best. Not saying I bet blindly, but sometimes, it's best to not over think it. In this case, like u said, the Broncos need this game a lot more than the Chargers do and 1 more week of practice for Peyton getting more in tune with his squad. The Packers needed last nights game more than the Texans did right? Who was the better overall QB going into the game? The better QB and the team that needed it more for their season ended up winning the game. I really think the same thing happens for MNF.

I rarely use historical trends or stats. In general, I use a contrarian strategy of betting against the grain. If you read my blog from last week, I took the Jets and the points, even sprinkled a half unit on the Jets moneyline. This game doesn't scream at me from either angle. You can make a good case for both teams.

I only came on this thread because of the title. I don't think it would be wise to "POUND" either team. I don't see an extreme advantage, either way. I may go to this game if my friend's tickets fall to me. Always fun when these two play.

[A4K]

By the way, I'm a HUGE Lakers fan! Go to about 20 games a season. I rarely bet on them because my HOMER glasses distort my objectivity. I hope they can gel together and get rollin' early in the season.

[drfunkmaster]

[Ticket #: 126760314] PARLAY (4 TEAMS) RR (1P-4T)

10/14/2012 @ 08:00 PM	NFL	[231] GREEN BAY +180
10/15/2012 @ 08:40 PM	NFL	[233] DENVER EV
10/14/2012 @ 08:20 PM	MLB	[903] TOTAL o7-105 (STL GM1 vrs SFO GM1) ( L LYNN -R / BUMGARNER -L )
10/14/2012 @ 08:20 PM	MLB	[903] STL GM1 +111 ( ACTION )

When ever i need the last leg of a parlay, the last team ALWAYS LOSES, and the hedge bet always wins. for past 3 years Parlays of 3 or more teams, the last leg always loses. SO you know what i will be on!. Why i included it was beyond me.

[Omaga]

Also this was not a situation where you have SD coming off a demoralizing loss. They got screwed out of the W against NO on the road in primetime, and won their game before that. Denver is much better than their record. The line was not inflated, and there has been significant line movement w/ Denver +2 early in the week, and now they are PK or -1, with closing line going to end up at DEN-1.

Yeah this....

[Omaga]

[Ticket #: 126760314] PARLAY (4 TEAMS) RR (1P-4T)

10/14/2012 @ 08:00 PM	NFL	[231] GREEN BAY +180
10/15/2012 @ 08:40 PM	NFL	[233] DENVER EV
10/14/2012 @ 08:20 PM	MLB	[903] TOTAL o7-105 (STL GM1 vrs SFO GM1) ( L LYNN -R / BUMGARNER -L )
10/14/2012 @ 08:20 PM	MLB	[903] STL GM1 +111 ( ACTION )

When ever i need the last leg of a parlay, the last team ALWAYS LOSES, and the hedge bet always wins. for past 3 years Parlays of 3 or more teams, the last leg always loses. SO you know what i will be on!. Why i included it was beyond me.

No worries pal....just sit back relax and watch the game tonight.

[homerbush]

Btw, I do think the Broncos win SU but will wait to see how the line moves before making an actual play.

Just cap the game instead of worrying how others are betting jeez take your own advice.

[suicidekings]

Btw, I do think the Broncos win SU but will wait to see how the line moves before making an actual play.

If you lean strongly to the Broncos, why would you wait for the line to move to make your play?

[hockey216]

San Diego grinds out a win here.

[ridims]

manning on a monday night and on the road again. we all saw how awful he played last time. you think he proves something tonight?

[rainman416]

After reading this thread and all the other research I can find, the safest play feels like the following teaser:

2 Play Parlay:
DEN +7.5 @ -345
DEN/SD(UN 53.5) @ -250
Total Odds = -124

I have a 3 play teaser that pays $1400 if this game goes over 40.5 so I'm thinking of the above teaser as a sort of hedge bet.. Worst case the game would go under 40.5 and SD would win by -7.5... I'd lose both.. but that seems pretty unlikely.. (Famous last words) haha.
Like everyone is saying though.. DEN is the play, and if they lose I don't see it being by more than a TD..

ThoughtS?

[rainman416]

After reading this thread and all the other research I can find, the safest play feels like the following teaser:

2 Play Parlay:
DEN +7.5 @ -345
DEN/SD(UN 53.5) @ -250
Total Odds = -124

I have a 3 play teaser that pays $1400 if this game goes over 40.5 so I'm thinking of the above teaser as a sort of hedge bet.. Worst case the game would go under 40.5 and SD would win by -7.5... I'd lose both.. but that seems pretty unlikely.. (Famous last words) haha.
Like everyone is saying though.. DEN is the play, and if they lose I don't see it being by more than a TD..
Very likely that the game total lands between 40.5 and 53.5 AND DEN either wins or keeps it close, so this could be a WIN both scenario if I make this hedge.. I'm no Super-Capper though so your thoughts/Ideas are welcome

[Lakers714]

If you lean strongly to the Broncos, why would you wait for the line to move to make your play?

Because I think I can get better odds for the Broncos.

[homerbush]

If you lean strongly to the Broncos, why would you wait for the line to move to make your play?

Because he thinks he knows something about line movement and bookie conspiracies.

[bleek88]

San Diego -3 to cash (3x)

[Lakers714]

Because he thinks he knows something about line movement and bookie conspiracies.

Lol, who said that? U did. It's called gambling, nobody knows what's gonna happen. It can go in my favor or go the other way. What's wrong with that? Did I say I had inside information or anything like that? Jesus Christ, this forum has got horrible with a bunch of dumbfuks.

[aufordboy]

I just loaded up on the Broncos +1. This has been a tough weekend but I plan on a nice rebound with this play tonight. BOL

[A4K]

I just loaded up on the Broncos +1. This has been a tough weekend but I plan on a nice rebound with this play tonight. BOL

Ahhhhhh the old get back game. If I had a dollar for every time I read or heard this.

[SteveRyan]

Wtf does this have to do with the MNF game? R u kidding me? I didn't know the Broncos/Chargers game was dependent on the other games already played. Each game is independent. Your angle is just like saying it's been red the last 10 spins so the next one has to be black. C'mon bro, just cap the game.

Call me superstitious, but when 11 dogs beat vegas on one sunday I have a hard time laying anything on a fav...especially an iffy team like SD.

The only thing SD has going for them is a strong home field advantage.

[SteveRyan]

I just loaded up on the Broncos +1. This has been a tough weekend but I plan on a nice rebound with this play tonight. BOL

That's why the line moves so much on the MN game after the public gets pounded.

[A4K]

Call me superstitious, but when 11 dogs beat vegas on one sunday I have a hard time laying anything on a fav...especially an iffy team like SD.

The only thing SD has going for them is a strong home field advantage.

Chargers have a better rush defense and arguably a much better tailback and tight end. Denver has an edge at QB, but the edge is not as big as it's been in the past.