Week 5 picks

2daBank · 10-02-12, 01:03 AM

you buying points on pats? i dont see -4 anywhere? id be all over that as well..

i hate skins and i love atl but this gm screams stay away or take home doggy,,atl just luckboxed into a win struggling terrible against cam now take their show on the road to face another multidimensional qb,,,,personally think atl 2nd best team in the nfc but not liking this gm at all...prob stay away for me but it still early..

this the type of gm balt lays a egg in time after time,,,kc turned ball over 97 times last week and doubt that happens again, still feel kc d will get things right at some point and as i said last time balt went on road i think their new look O is still gonna go stagnant at times ....another gm where i think you hold your nose and take ugly home dog or stay away...

pit/phi is a really tough one, hope you didnt already bet it at -3.5 as im sure there some -3s out there now and will be most the week..i like the under in that gm at first glance, need to see injury report and curious how good pit red zone d is as phi struggles once they get inside 20..phi d is a totally different animal this yr, pit could really use mendenhall back which i think he will be cause if big ben is forced to be in shotgun throwing all night he will get hit a lot, hopefully reid will swallow his pass happy pride and continue to feed shady the rock, if so this should go a nice under play imo as even if vick makes mistakes odds are they will be in the red zone. negating points (good for under)...

you paying steep price for a nyg team that love to come home against inferior opponents and struggle,,if cle wrs could catch the ball id love them getting 10, still like it as id expect nyg in typical fachion to be flat for about 3 qrtrs before eli gets his thug fizzle going and prob pulls it out late,,,,maybe you never get good number on this gm but history tells me if you want nyg ml you should prob wait and hope brownies compete early and get a discounted price live...

not a fan of playing the monday night winner the following week back on the road but i think it either chi or pass as marshall should do work in that gm....and gabbert vs bears d? no chance that turns out well as he couldnt muster shit against a bad cincy secondary...

as much as i like seachickens still not sold on their run d and if anything panthers will pound a team with a lot of very good backs and a strong oline.... on flip side beast mode should have himself a hell of a gm here....tough gm but i think gun to head id lean your way slightly right at this moment
love me some sf (best team in nfc right now hands down) that said coming off 2 weeks away from home and facing a buf team that runs a really good offensive scheme and a qb making plays i think this may be to many points...buf gonna have to find way to improve run d and fitz gonna have to stop throwing picks but just feel this not great spot to lay this many points, id prob look to tease sf down if you like them...

i think ten-a-key becomes a much better team with the old man under center,,min has been very impressive but not like they cant be had and them all a sudden laying 5 seems rather high to me... ten really made foster work for his yards last week and while ap is the better back he is not in the better offense so i thik this one will be a battle...

strongly lean over in the sunday night gm, no real thoughts on side as of yet...

all just some quick random thoughts as im up and saw your card and started thinking,,way to early in week for me to be real confident....did already play a tease on thu night....stl+7.5 and under 45.5..... gl this week...

9fives · 10-02-12, 02:02 AM

Thanks for your insightful thoughts on my picks. I haven't put any money on these lines as I want to watch the movements and do more research. Still winding down from Week 4's barrage of numbers and decisions so gonna need some time off to clear my head before I make any moves.

Cantor Gaming here in Vegas has -4 for the Pats at the moment and I should've taken it earlier, but didn't visit the sportsbook until it was closed. Pats are going to win by a touchdown or more so as long as it stays under 7.5 I am confident on this one for the Pats.

I was thinking the exact same thing for ATL, so I decided to stay away that game and deleted from my list as you were writing up.

I don't see KC improving significantly enough to beat the Ravens. Also, I think Ravens will try to make a statement that they win on the road as well. This is a must-win for the Ravens as they need to build confidence for their next away game in Houston.

I like the under for the Steelers, but I think that's also why Steelers D will take this game. The big reason why I think PHI will lose, is because they have had some tough tough games and god willingly won. Vick was limping at the end of the game and the team as a whole is beat up. Steelers are off a much needed bye week and will bring on their home defense stronger than ever this season.

Giants are a great great team, but I am not a fan of how they keep every game so close. Last year, with a better offense, they lost to road teams they should've killed (SEA, PHI, WAS). I have to admit, they win when they need to win, so I like the moneyline because they are coming off a tough divisional loss.

I really liked how Patriots were able to dominate JAX with their passing game. The Bears showed us that Cutler's passing game is not bad with a great receiver in Marshall. Their rushing game mixed in with their seasoned rushing game, will win over JAX.

For the hawks game, I like the matchup between the rookie QB and sophomore QB. Newton is going to need to show a glimpse of what he was as a rookie, but this is a different year where everyone has seen his game and who better than Carroll to teach his QB how to break Newton's game down. I like the SEA D going up against CAR in disrupting Newton.

Gotta run... will continue tomorrow!

Okay I'm back...

SF will be back home pumped up from a slaughter in NY. They did not use too much energy, and with BUF being a terrible away team at a pumped up stadium.. this will go to Niners by at least 12 points.

So on to TEN... I do think this will be the week TEN will do very well, even beat MIN to bring them back to earth. I will have to either stay away from this game or wait until TEN has a respectable underdog spread (+6.0-7.0).

Sunday night football at New Orleans is going to be a Saints for sure. This is a must-win for Saints and I think the spread will move in favor of Chargers to a SAINTS -1.5. This may be a stay-away game as well.

I like the teaser you have. Very good #'s and BOL to you!

2daBank · 10-02-12, 02:22 AM

i agree nyg will win,,,just think the way they typically play down to teams at home could give yo a better price live....

far as kc, if i actually have the balls/craziness to play them it will be way more about what ive come to know and expect out of balty in these spots, just look back ove the last few yrs and see wht they do on the road against inferior teams after knocking off team like pats one week then getting a div win at home the next,,the fact hou on deck would scare me off them even more....obvioulsy you taking the much better team but balt was the much better team in several road gms like this that they lost last season....

think ill stay away from spread on pats but they be in a teaser or 2 for sure...

ermzzy · 10-02-12, 01:27 PM

i think people are overvaluing the U38.5 on the rams/cards game, going to be a few turn overs for sure,

9fives · 10-04-12, 04:08 AM

Turnovers don't always mean high scoring games. For example, 49ers vs Jets was an under game even with all of Jets turnovers.

I'll be putting my bet in for the cards to continue their heat streak with the Rams having the usual qb turnovers. The o/u is a tough one now that I think about it more.

9fives · 10-04-12, 07:22 PM

Actually went with STL +1.5 and UN38 for 1.5units

9fives · 10-04-12, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by 9fives

Actually went with STL +1.5 and UN38 for 1.5units

Whew, the cards got ROCKED! +3.8

Week 5: +3.8

2012 Season:+19.50 + +3.8 = +23.35

9fives · 10-06-12, 11:40 PM

Bengals PLB -3.0
Giants MLB
Steelers MLB
Patriots PLB -6.5
Saints MLB
Texans PLB -8.0
0.5 units to win 9.88units

49ers PLB -10.0
Giants MLB
Ravens MLB
Ravens UN46.0
Saints MLB
Texans PLB -8.0
1.0 units to win 18.08units

Packers MLB
49ers PLB -10.0
Bengals PLB -3.0
Giants LMB
Steelers PLB -3.5
Patriots PLB -6.5
1.5 units to win 34.01

Ravens/Chiefs UN46.0
0.55 units to win 0.5 units

Texans PLB -8.0
0.55 units to win 0.5 units

Patriots PLB -6.5
0.55 units to win 0.5 units

Steelers PLB -3.5
0.5 units to win 0.5 units

Bengals PLB -3.0
0.6 units to win 0.5 units

49ers PLB -10.0
0.53 units to win 0.5 units

9fives · 10-08-12, 07:48 PM

hedging my 2nd parlay ticket: JETS +9.5 for 5.5 units

9fives · 10-08-12, 09:41 PM

Would be awesome if Houston makes another field goal and Jets score a touchdown... 23 - 14... Win both tickets with Houston winning by 9... Please!!!

9fives · 10-08-12, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by 9fives

Would be awesome if Houston makes another field goal and Jets score a touchdown... 23 - 14... Win both tickets with Houston winning by 9... Please!!!

or Houston TD and a FG, then Jets make another TD... 30 - 21

9fives · 10-08-12, 10:55 PM

After all that...

Week 5: +3.8 + 0.45 = +4.25 units

2012 Season: +23.80 units