Pro an College so much of a difference

C-Gold · 09-23-12, 05:45 PM

NFL is sharper than college.

guy Fawkes · 09-23-12, 05:52 PM

I've got two thoughts on this one:

In college the separation between teams is vastly different than in the pros. You have spreads like -49 (Alabama and FAU last night), while in the NFL a spread of 13 raises eyebrows.

Secondly, the number of opportunities and plays is very different between the pros and college.

I'll try to give an example here: Let's say for two NFL teams there may be a 5% advantage to one team and they are able to squeeze 130 plays into any given game. Imagine doing 130 trials of two given outcomes at 47.5% chance and 52.5% chance. Which team will have more things go their way? Tough to say, it's likely that the 52.5% chance will have more trials in their favor, but what if the spread is -8.5 trials. Tough call and very easy to imagine the 47.5% winning it outright.

In college you have teams with huge advantages. Even "close" teams are usually separated by more than than the best/worst combo in the NFL. You have say a 20% advantage between teams (say FSU and Clemson last night) and 160 trials. Who will win more trials? What about a spread of -13?

The NFL runs the clock to quickly for my liking and doesn't have a large enough sampling to say which team is better. College is usually decided before the clock hits 0:00

RG3ING · 09-23-12, 05:52 PM

i hear ya but i also Think there is more to that i hear about people that cant win on saturdays an dont even bet college they stick to sundays..

RG3ING · 09-23-12, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by guy Fawkes

I've got two thoughts on this one:

In college the separation between teams is vastly different than in the pros. You have spreads like -49 (Alabama and FAU last night), while in the NFL a spread of 13 raises eyebrows.

Secondly, the number of opportunities and plays is very different between the pros and college.

I'll try to give an example here: Let's say for two NFL teams there may be a 5% advantage to one team and they are able to squeeze 130 plays into any given game. Imagine doing 130 trials of two given outcomes at 47.5% chance and 52.5% chance. Which team will have more things go their way? Tough to say, it's likely that the 52.5% chance will have more trials in their favor, but what if the spread is -8.5 trials. Tough call and very easy to imagine the 47.5% winning it outright.

In college you have teams with huge advantages. Even "close" teams are usually separated by more than than the best/worst combo in the NFL. You have say a 20% advantage between teams (say FSU and Clemson last night) and 160 trials. Who will win more trials? What about a spread of -13?

The NFL runs the clock to quickly for my liking and doesn't have a large enough sampling to say which team is better. College is usually decided before the clock hits 0:00

Great Info i appreciate it how do you do on sunday what are key things u look for or hints idk im just looking for an angle or something im missing or anything?

C-Gold · 09-23-12, 05:57 PM

Psychology.

guy Fawkes · 09-23-12, 06:02 PM

Personally, I only try to hit the NFL when I have a good Saturday. For me, the NFL is gambling - NCAAF isn't. For the NFL, I look at Red Zone defense, Red Zone Scoring Percentage (Offense, TDs only) and for the most part try to fade the public (and of course check everything against injuries).

For what its worth I was on Miami, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Houston and San Diego today - fairly mixed results. I'm on Baltimore tonight, so we'll see just what I'm worth then

BTW, a great website for data mining these crazy figures is http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/ . I use it about everyday.

RG3ING · 09-23-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by guy Fawkes

Personally, I only try to hit the NFL when I have a good Saturday. For me, the NFL is gambling - NCAAF isn't. For the NFL, I look at Red Zone defense, Red Zone Scoring Percentage (Offense, TDs only) and for the most part try to fade the public (and of course check everything against injuries).

For what its worth I was on Miami, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Houston and San Diego today - fairly mixed results. I'm on Baltimore tonight, so we'll see just what I'm worth then

BTW, a great website for data mining these crazy figures is http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/ . I use it about everyday.

Hey thanks man i appreciate the info im on ravens tonight to. im gonna stick to NCAA i think for the most part like you do unless i kill a saturday to its just gonna save me money in the long run. A old timer was telling me he fades the public thats all he looks at an when the public is on a team 65% or more he fades them he told me books win in the long run so i bet with them. my theory on that is they when there money on juice i thought they want 50% on team A an 50% on team B an thats why they change there lines during the week based on the public any thoughts??

thebestthereis · 09-23-12, 06:18 PM

An inside information game of the year holds equal merit in either college or pro. If its late breaking inside information then u need to reassess the situation. Good luck!

guy Fawkes · 09-23-12, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by RG3ING

Hey thanks man i appreciate the info im on ravens tonight to. im gonna stick to NCAA i think for the most part like you do unless i kill a saturday to its just gonna save me money in the long run. A old timer was telling me he fades the public thats all he looks at an when the public is on a team 65% or more he fades them he told me books win in the long run so i bet with them. my theory on that is they when there money on juice i thought they want 50% on team A an 50% on team B an thats why they change there lines during the week based on the public any thoughts??

I think you're both right to varying degrees. Books do try to get 50-50 action on both sides so the juice is all that matters, books don't gamble - cappers do. This is made apparent when you see different books offering different lines. For example, right now you can find Raven's -2.5 at %dimes, but at -3 at Bookmaker. It isn't that these two books just highly disagree on that 1/2 point, its how the money has fallen...5Dimes has seen alot more money going towards New England.

Fading the public can be a huge moneymaker in NCAAF. For instance, yesterday with the Rutgers @ Arkansas game, the line started at +2.5. Arkansas was going to be a huge public play. The line moved to Rutgers +9. If you had capped the game early and decided that Rutgers was the play, waiting until the final minutes can have a large impact on your bankroll over time (spread as well as moneyline).

I've had the privilege of befriending a couple that used to work in Costa Rica at a sportsbook and got a bit of information on how the insides work. The initial spread/total offered is a culmination of many aspects and not just which way the stats say the game should go.

RG3ING · 09-23-12, 08:44 PM

Thanks yall for all the insight an ill keep in contact with yall to see how we are all doing weeke to week. If u have any big leans appreciate the notice just shoot me a message im new to site but on basically everyday!Thanks again..