new to the forum, my apologies if you ve had tons of questions like this. here goes: i will win $948 if kentucky beats ohio st in final. i will win $395 if ohio st beats kentucky in final. all other outcomes are meaningless. i want to guarantee myself some money but also try to exploit chance for middle. i am going to bet $200 on kansas +2.5 and hope ohio st. wins but does not cover. what i am not sure about is if i should bet ohio st. plus point against kentucky if kansas does not cover against ohio st. because if kentucky then covers i would cost myself $440.....forgot to mention, only betting kansas if kentucky beats ohio st., if louisville wins, i'm doing nothing. this involves the chances of kentucky beating ohio st but not covering. assuming a spread of say 5 what % of the time kentucky win but not cover? which is the better course to take: bet ohio st plus points vs kentucky only if ohio st beats kansas without a cover.....or: bet ohio st. plus points against kentucky even if i lose first bet? hitting both middles would result in a return of $1348. losing both middles would result in return of $508. which is the better play? sorry if i'm confusing, but i don't know which is best? any help would be much appreciated.
-
-
Hi spaceman and welcome!
I linked this to a couple of other subforums so you can get feedback from our experts.Comment -
id take louisville plus the points, if kentucky wins and dont cover, then id also take kansas plus the points, then if its kentucky ohio st id reevaluate after the games.Comment -
I would take:
-Louisville + points for $150.
-If Louisville wins straight up, then I wouldn't do anything else because there's no longer anything to hedge against.
-If Kentucky wins, then I would take kansas + points vs. ohio state for $150.
-If Kansas wins, no need to do anything else cause again, nothing to hedge against
-If OSU wins I'd probably just ride it out and hope for a Kentucky win in the final, but you could throw some on OSU if you wanted to even out the payouts.Comment -
^^^^
good advice
i wouldn't take points, just do moneylines if you want a true hedge. the chances of ohio st winning by exactly 1 or 2 points are so puny it's better to take the +135 on the moneyline than lay -110 on +2 1/2Comment