Need advice on when the juice is too much???

[looneytunes67]

Hi all. Newbie here to sports betting. I understand the math but wanted to get opinions on when you feel
the vig is just too much.....even if you like the line.

Let me use an example:

NFL football:

NEw England -14.5 (-110)

Buffalo +14.5 (-120)

So I understand if I want to make straight bet on the point spread for NE I need to lay $110 to win $100.
If I want Buffalo I need to lay $120 to win $100.
If I really like Buffalo and getting the points do I lay the extra juice just because I am confident Buffalo will cover?
What if the juice is (-125) or even (-130)? At what point do you say "I love the line but the juice is just too much!

Obviously, some bets you may need to lay only 5% (-105), so it goes the other way as well.

My bet size is only $200 and only straight bets on the fav or underdog so the difference between (-110) and (-120) is only $20 and will not come up on every bet.....but over the course of a season betting 5-6 games a weekend will cut into overall winnings for the season (if I am so lucky).

Just a note. I know some will say shop around. I am sure many of you have accounts at a few online books for that purpose , but I am in USA and do not want to deal with the difficulty of deposits, cashouts, etc.
The casino in my state offers legalized sportsbetting. Go to the window, make your picks, and hopefully cash with no fuss or delays. Obviously, this does limit options for shopping lines and vigs.
Appreciate any thoughts.

[danshan11]

technically you can get any number you want, you just need to pay higher or lower odds. When is it worth it I would guess would be based on what your win probability is. if you are winning at a 50% rate you need to obviously get better than +100 to make any money.

[totalsguy]

at -120 your break even is 55% to profit you need to win more ie 57 or 58% and have a math basis for determining you have a 58% win expectation which you do not have because your basis is "I really Like Buffalo"
You need to have a proven math formula that exports a %
then you need to have a break even chart to determine if it is worth making the play
also you need to have proven money management rules
which include a segregated bankroll & wagering a fixed % on sides bet 1 or 2%
thats $10,000 set aside in a to support your $200 which I am sure you don't
My advice is to get books on basic handicapping and money management
and Paper trade to learn TECHNIQUE & DISCIPLINE otherwise you will be in the 95% of lossers
And that Is a 95% loss expectation
Before you undertake anything in life you have to study and then test yourself
Other wise you are throwing your money is the street, as you will see in a few months from now
a word to the wise is sufficient

[looneytunes67]

Hey Totalsguy thanks for the feedback. I get the money mgmt. and discipline aspect which I think I have. I only make staright bets vs the spread. I stay away from teasers, parlays, etc.
Any chance you could point me in some direction as far as "A math formula that exports a %" and how this relates to a "break even chart?"

Obviously, I would not expect you to share any data which you compiled yourself. Just wondering if there is anything on the internet that you found helpful.

BTW, I see you are a Dolphins fan? I am from New England. Nice win 2 weeks ago! Don't see an ending to a game like that very often!

[danshan11]

if(F6<0,ABS(F6)/(ABS(F6)+100),1-F6/(F6+100))
to get implied probability
now to get a breakeven chart you need to subtract the margin (google a betting margin calculator to calculate margin)

[danshan11]

Also most margin calculators do not calculate the juice correctly, read about fave longshot bias to get an understanding of this part of it but in general the margin calculator will get you close to right.

[totalsguy]

sent u a pm

[Roger T. Bannon]

The juice is too much when you think there is no longer any value. No reason in particular to not bet a game because it is juiced. But you obviously do not want to continually bet juiced lines. While you are eating juice, you are also more likely to win the bet than not. So if you are betting a juiced line, you want to compare it to other lines on the same game and determine if the bet is fair. If it is, you bet it. If the book is more juiced than others, you might decide the juice is too much.