Value on Kentucky to win it all at -150?

[jdhender]

IMO only team with a sshot is Louisville with a full week to prepare. Self or Matta sure as hell are not going to bring aany new strategy to a ppotential matchup. Louisville should be a real contest. Should Kentucky get by them they wwill make quick work of OSU/KU

thoughts?

[HoulihansTX]

Its a numbers game...

If they win this game v Louisville, what will be their ML vs either OSU or KU? I would expect it to be higher.

[jdhender]

I'd have to think ML against OSU/KU would be higher then -150

Against Kansas the number would certainly be higher as OSU is -145 to -150 ML right now.

Gotta believe The books would also inflate the Kentucky number a bit in a finals matchup.

[Thehusker]

Kentucky Title futures deadest thing since Mia Heat Futures last year....enjoy the burial

[jdhender]

Why?

[jdhender]

This Kentucky team is playing selfless basketball. In addition to being the most talented team they are out working and out executing their opponents. They can win in a variety of ways.

That team was NOT Miami last year. They had distinct
weaknesses.

[HR Paperstacks]

Why?

There is no good reason to think that they will lose, no one left is more talented or playing as well as they have the entire season. Anyone saying its a bad bet is just hating or making shit up. There's no way you could get me to throw a dime on any of the other 3 teams to win the title.

Keep in mind anything is possible but that doesn't make it probable or profitable. -150 is better than what you would get after they beat Louisville.

[HoulihansTX]

I have OSU winning it overall.

If you bet Kentucky to win it all now, you may have a great hedging op.

[yisman]

There is no good reason to think that they will lose, no one left is more talented or playing as well as they have the entire season. Anyone saying its a bad bet is just hating or making shit up. There's no way you could get me to throw a dime on any of the other 3 teams to win the title.

Keep in mind anything is possible but that doesn't make it probable or profitable. -150 is better than what you would get after they beat Louisville.

you have to combine it with what you'd win by betting them against Louisville, and then rebetting on the new ML.

They're -470 on Pinnacle to beat Louisville.

[BiffTFinancial]

UK champ prop at -150 is solid. as Ohio State fan, i just can't do it. the dream is still alive.

i'm thinking about going long on UK 1H and game against UL. i don't see a lot of floaters in the lane for Russ Smith and Peyton Siva. UK defends well in all aspects except forcing TOs (and that's a philosophical decision not to pressure that way) and UL offense can be a real dumpster fire.

[k13]

Why?

He's a Louisville homer.

[Rookie-Capper]

The kentucky championship

[HR Paperstacks]

UK champ prop at -150 is solid. as Ohio State fan, i just can't do it. the dream is still alive.

i'm thinking about going long on UK 1H and game against UL. i don't see a lot of floaters in the lane for Russ Smith and Peyton Siva. UK defends well in all aspects except forcing TOs (and that's a philosophical decision not to pressure that way) and UL offense can be a real dumpster fire.

I expect UL to try to make the game as ugly as possible and the first game was pretty ugly. I expect them to slow the pace to a crawl and use close to 30 seconds of the shot clock on most possessions and hack quite a bit on defense and maybe try to get in UK's players heads. Wont work but I dont think this is going to be an ugly game to watch.

[CWD]

i think you are looking at maybe -6 vs kansas or ohio state winner so there is a good chance they will be in the -300 range so it has some value but they aren't losing saturday i would be more concerned about monday night.

if they win a low scoring ugly game vs louisville i would HAMMER kentucky and the over regardless of the number or who they play monday

[BiffTFinancial]

I expect UL to try to make the game as ugly as possible and the first game was pretty ugly. I expect them to slow the pace to a crawl and use close to 30 seconds of the shot clock on most possessions and hack quite a bit on defense and maybe try to get in UK's players heads. Wont work but I dont think this is going to be an ugly game to watch.

i hear you, but UL hasn't slowed the pace against anyone lately. while i see your argument, pressuring the ball and getting easy buckets from pressure/in transition has been UL's most consistent source of offense of late. if UL can't get some easy buckets, they have zero chance of winning here. of course, UK is very difficult to turn over, so there's no guarantee that pressure will produce the desired result against them. was planning to book UK -8' this morning but will have to think on it some more.

[HR Paperstacks]

i hear you, but UL hasn't slowed the pace against anyone lately. while i see your argument, pressuring the ball and getting easy buckets from pressure/in transition has been UL's most consistent source of offense of late. if UL can't get some easy buckets, they have zero chance of winning here. of course, UK is very difficult to turn over, so there's no guarantee that pressure will produce the desired result against them. was planning to book UK -8' this morning but will have to think on it some more.

It'll be interesting to see what Pitino decides to do. Running with UK is a death. Best way to play them is to get back on D in transition and then eith play man or zone and pack it in and hope like hell that the cats aren't hitting their jumpers.

[jdhender]

Part 1 complete !