It was disturbing how Oregon played D in their last matchup by allowing anyone to have open shots from anywhere. However I read a compelling argument from a successful ncaa capper on another forum,, and I'm just posting it here for those who only stick to sbr and don't check around... and also to bring up discussion from both sides. (i have not made a play on this as of yet)
Oregon @ Washington Under 155...
I knew I would be on this the moment Oregon closed out Iowa in the highest-scoring game of the postseason. It was just a matter of getting a number north of 150, which is clearly the case here. Three important reasons behind this play:
A) Familiarity- These postseason tournaments (NIT/CBI/CIT) have produced a very high number of overs. Main reason is that teams are unfamiliar with one another and typically do not have ample time to prepare for the other team's schemes. Jimmy Dykes made an interesting point during last night's MTSU/Tennessee game when he said that "out-of-bounds" plays work at an extraordinarily high rate in these tournaments because coaches are unable to cover everything in their pre-game scouting work.
Also, the defensive intensity tends to be lower than during conference games and conference tournaments as many teams are simply not at the same level of focus after five consecutive months of basketball.
But this is the opposite of what we have tonight with Oregon facing Washington. They played twice during the regular season with each team dominating on the home floor. There are no secrets, everything is well-scouted, and the defensive intensity will be rather high considering the rivalry and a trip to MSG on the line. We're also getting terrific line value as people are starting to notice how successful "overs" have been during this postseason and with Oregon coming off of a ridiculous shootout against Iowa.
B) Washington defends at home- UDub has a well-earned reputation for grossly underachieving on the defensive end, especially given the caliber of athlete they tend to recruit. But at home this season, the Huskies are actually showing some interest in stopping opponents. Against Northwestern a few days ago, they held an extremely efficient offense to 18/51 shooting and 5/23 from deep. Pretty impressive, especially considering they hadn't seen a scheme like it all season. When Washington wants to defend, they are a very difficult team to score on, especially with a healthy N'Diaye patrolling the paint.
C) Oregon has shooting issues on the road - Scoring isn't an issue at home for the Duckies. Last 8 home games have produced the following: 108, 96, 94, 90, 78, 82, 71, 75. Crazy efficient amidst the trees in Eugene. On the road is a whole different story. Those sharpshooters cannot seem to find the same consistency in unfriendly venues. It carries over to the free throw line, too. 72% at home, 66% on the road. The Washington defensive scheme also seems to cause issues. In the last three meetings away from Eugene, here's what Oregon has done against the UDub defense: 60, 51, 69. Not good.
I knew I would be on this the moment Oregon closed out Iowa in the highest-scoring game of the postseason. It was just a matter of getting a number north of 150, which is clearly the case here. Three important reasons behind this play:
A) Familiarity- These postseason tournaments (NIT/CBI/CIT) have produced a very high number of overs. Main reason is that teams are unfamiliar with one another and typically do not have ample time to prepare for the other team's schemes. Jimmy Dykes made an interesting point during last night's MTSU/Tennessee game when he said that "out-of-bounds" plays work at an extraordinarily high rate in these tournaments because coaches are unable to cover everything in their pre-game scouting work.
Also, the defensive intensity tends to be lower than during conference games and conference tournaments as many teams are simply not at the same level of focus after five consecutive months of basketball.
But this is the opposite of what we have tonight with Oregon facing Washington. They played twice during the regular season with each team dominating on the home floor. There are no secrets, everything is well-scouted, and the defensive intensity will be rather high considering the rivalry and a trip to MSG on the line. We're also getting terrific line value as people are starting to notice how successful "overs" have been during this postseason and with Oregon coming off of a ridiculous shootout against Iowa.
B) Washington defends at home- UDub has a well-earned reputation for grossly underachieving on the defensive end, especially given the caliber of athlete they tend to recruit. But at home this season, the Huskies are actually showing some interest in stopping opponents. Against Northwestern a few days ago, they held an extremely efficient offense to 18/51 shooting and 5/23 from deep. Pretty impressive, especially considering they hadn't seen a scheme like it all season. When Washington wants to defend, they are a very difficult team to score on, especially with a healthy N'Diaye patrolling the paint.
C) Oregon has shooting issues on the road - Scoring isn't an issue at home for the Duckies. Last 8 home games have produced the following: 108, 96, 94, 90, 78, 82, 71, 75. Crazy efficient amidst the trees in Eugene. On the road is a whole different story. Those sharpshooters cannot seem to find the same consistency in unfriendly venues. It carries over to the free throw line, too. 72% at home, 66% on the road. The Washington defensive scheme also seems to cause issues. In the last three meetings away from Eugene, here's what Oregon has done against the UDub defense: 60, 51, 69. Not good.
