First take on NCAA Opening Lines: 3 games I really like

[Owls]

My overall assessment of the NCAA opening lines is disappointing. Vegas has sharpened up their act over past years with the extensive use of computer ratings to determine the line. I only see 3 games out of 36 which I really like. And 3 games which are ok, but only worthy of a small bet.

Big Bet games:

Harvard +6: Their defense will make getting 6 points feel like getting 10. I see them staying right with Vanderbilt and could pull off the upset here.

Virginia +3.5: I like the matchup here, Florida shoots a lot of 3s and Virginia plays great perimeter defense.

Purdue -2: Purdue is weak against teams with a strong post presence. Against every other type of team, they are extremely strong. Unfortunately for them, they had to deal with 3 strong teams with great inside games in Ohio St, Indiana, and Mich St in conference. Now they face a St. Mary's team which doesn't have that great inside threat, and Purdue is the better 3 point shooting team and more athletic.


Small Bet games:

Iowa St. +2.5 : I really like how Iowa State matches up with UConn, with their 3 point shooting ability and ability to take care of the basketball.

Wisconsin -9: They blow out inferior teams, and Montana is clearly inferior. Great half court team.

NC State -2: More athletic than San Diego St and well coached. Was really impressed in their game with UNC on Saturday.

[slambam]

I like NC State also. Other favorites are with Creighton, Cincy, and Notre Dame. I think a lot of people here like UNLV to make a run, but I like the value a hot Colorado team has right now too.

[tarheelfan72]

NC State as an 11 seed fav is a good bet. They are peaking at the right time. They have some elite talent on that team esp. Leslie who was #11 player in 2010 class with only guys like Barnes, Sullinger, Knight ahead of him. Finally got his head out of his ass and stopped being a prima donna, now playing team ball and really hustling. NC State is legit, their main problem is they got NO bench so when they get in foul trouble there is a MAJOR drop off in talent. Starters can run with just about anyone.

The Wisconsin line scares me a bit with their pace and this being a tourney game, that's a lot of points.

[meader99]

Montana hasn't lost a game since mid December. Winning breeds winning and it aint like UW is going to score a ton of points.

[thetrinity]

agree with u owl that these lines r way sharper then 5-10 years ago. you would have seen belmont getting 7 5 years ago and 9 or 10 if you go back 10 years.

[mynameismud]

belmont is a great team but ill take georgetown all day. ill either buy the hook to make it -3 or parlay the -170 ML

[jbess]

Can wiscon win straight up? just testing a few things for a small teaser

[jjesco425]

lehigh +12 even money @ pinney .... lehigh can keep this close and dont think duke will have kelley back... wanna see this mccollum kid play numbers suggest a jimmer type of player

[PickWinnerAllDay]

That belmont line isn't sharp... Georgetown is going to win by 10.

[krk1030]

Love Harvard, they should win outright.

[Jayvegas420]

Love Harvard, they should win outright.

Enought with the jokes. This is a serious thread! LOL

[Bcatswin]

Im not sure i think Belmont can beat them outright.

[PickWinnerAllDay]

I guess one thing to consider is that Big East teams were god awful in the tournament last year besides Uconn and the league is considered weaker this year than last.

[james4512]

belmont lost by 4 @ duke neutral court vs a team that isnt as good as duke belmont all day

[PickWinnerAllDay]

belmont lost by 4 @ duke neutral court vs a team that isnt as good as duke belmont all day

Duke is vastly overrated, but if we're going to take individual games, Belmont has a lot of bad losses on their slate.

[Owls]

Unlike regular season games, the NCAA tournament games always have a ton of public money so I will wait to bet my picks because most of them are not public plays. I already see the lines getting more favorable for Harvard and Purdue.

[Owls]

lehigh +12 even money @ pinney .... lehigh can keep this close and dont think duke will have kelley back... wanna see this mccollum kid play numbers suggest a jimmer type of player

Duke/Lehigh is another one that I'm looking at. This Duke team just doesn't have the defense to blow teams away like they did in the past. But Coack K likes running up the score against unathletic teams.