MD-East Shore UNDER 69.5 2nd Half

southpaw74 · 03-06-12, 05:07 PM

Agreed. You are getting some good numbers. Hopefully it's not close this time so we don't need to worry about it.

CoachemUp · 03-06-12, 05:16 PM

Yea, I'm playing at Bovada and firing right when it comes out. Typically Bovada totals aren't that great, but so far so good today. Let's get em SouthPaw! Good start, 13 points through 5 minutes!

nammertl · 03-06-12, 05:17 PM

with ya on this.

CoachemUp · 03-06-12, 05:27 PM

Here's my methodology: I study the box score at halftime. I try to add points and subtract points in my head. For example: If a team has 15 made free throws at halftime I asign something like -5 points. Then if they only made 2 three pointers I add in 6 points (for 2 more 3's). I also look a field goal % and adjust a few buckets each way there. Obviously the numbers are all arbitrary, but it gives me a good idea off of the 1st half number what to expect. Books are set up to add usually add between 8-10 points for the 2nd half play, so I get a pretty good of an idea of the number they'll post.

TBH for this game I was expecting 66.5-67 2nd half line. When I refreshed and saw 69.5 my eyes lit up a bit, usually I'm not 3 points off, thus I jammed it right away. 9 minutes in and they're at the wonderful 3 points a minute pace. We'll take it, and we'll take Carolina pulling away so less fouls!

CoachemUp · 03-06-12, 05:44 PM

Barring 25 points in 3.5 minutes of a blowout... we got another winner!

CoachemUp · 03-06-12, 05:46 PM

That was a really bad number by the computers there. Glad we could take advantage!

southpaw74 · 03-06-12, 05:54 PM

Yup...that was an enjoyable victory! Congrats.

southpaw74 · 03-06-12, 05:59 PM

That's a good way to look at it. Pace is a huge factor and blowouts tend to score less down the stretch. We got lucky with both here. They had about 16 less shots than the 1h of the Pitt game with almost the same 2h line. That's a big discrepancy. It was very odd to see the line at 69. It's almost always 8 or 9 higher 2h so it should have been 67 or so. On top of all that I saw they sucked at free throws 1h so that helps keep the point totals down.

CoachemUp · 03-06-12, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

That's a good way to look at it. Pace is a huge factor and blowouts tend to score less down the stretch. We got lucky with both here. They had about 16 less shots than the 1h of the Pitt game with almost the same 2h line. That's a big discrepancy. It was very odd to see the line at 69. It's almost always 8 or 9 higher 2h so it should have been 67 or so. On top of all that I saw they sucked at free throws 1h so that helps keep the point totals down.

Yea I agree. Seeing it only 1 point lower than the Pitt game really gave me confidence. It was a good play (wish I had put more than 1u on it). We'll keep looking for more, but that was definitely one of the biggest discrepancies I've seen. Good stuff SouthPaw

nammertl · 03-06-12, 06:50 PM

very nice win for us. you did well with pitt and this.

also don't playing halfs consume a lot more time cause of all that on the fly calculations and keeping up with when the halves begin? thanks for the hard work buddy.

CoachemUp · 03-06-12, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by nammertl

very nice win for us. you did well with pitt and this.

also don't playing halfs consume a lot more time cause of all that on the fly calculations and keeping up with when the halves begin? thanks for the hard work buddy.

It's probably more instinct than anything. When you're used to looking at 2nd half lines you can kind of get into a rhythem. There's definitely more variance, particularly in closer games where 1 basket could trigger 10 foul shots, or a missed basket could save you those foul shots. But in general I've been profitable betting on 2nd half totals (not 2nd half spreads for some reason).

I'll post more when I can in March. Had an easy day at work so was able to put in the time... look for more stuff the rest of the week in the afternoon.