Found this today while I was reading and thought I would share.
Betting Against the Public has proven to work across all of the major sports, but March Madness is a special time of year. When one team garners more than 60% of the bets, and is favored by at least 16 points, the underdog wins against the spread 56.5% of the time, since 2004. The logic behind the approach is simple. When people wager too heavily for one team, oddsmakers shift the betting lines to encourage action on the other side. Often times, the new point spreads swing too far in favor of the unpopular team. People who bet against every large favorite that received at least 60% of the bets would have made money in four of the last seven years, including the last two seasons.
We would bet against the Fav of 16pts+ with public bets of 60%+
Contrarian Betting Approach for March Madness
2004
8-8
2005
9-2
2006
9-3
2007
3-4
2008
12-18
2009
14-7
2010
6-5
2004-10
61-47 (56.5%)
Betting Against the Public has proven to work across all of the major sports, but March Madness is a special time of year. When one team garners more than 60% of the bets, and is favored by at least 16 points, the underdog wins against the spread 56.5% of the time, since 2004. The logic behind the approach is simple. When people wager too heavily for one team, oddsmakers shift the betting lines to encourage action on the other side. Often times, the new point spreads swing too far in favor of the unpopular team. People who bet against every large favorite that received at least 60% of the bets would have made money in four of the last seven years, including the last two seasons.
We would bet against the Fav of 16pts+ with public bets of 60%+
Contrarian Betting Approach for March Madness
2004
8-8
2005
9-2
2006
9-3
2007
3-4
2008
12-18
2009
14-7
2010
6-5
2004-10
61-47 (56.5%)
