Can Mississippi State upset Kentucky on Tuesday?

[No coincidences]

+375 on the ML. MSU has been bad lately and Kentucky is in an invincible stretch. Kentucky holds the edge in every category. These are the kind of games that used to make college basketball great -- the huge underdog pulls off a stunning win at home vs. No. 1. Doesn't seem to happen much anymore, though. Could we see it here? Any chance at all? Dee Bost going ballistic?

[georgejung]

Im gonna have to say no. I go to school at Mississippi State and the team/coach chemistry is going down the drain. Im friends with many of the players on the team and they have lost confidence in Stansbury. Kentucky by a large margin

[19th Hole]

No coin....Good thought but not a great M/L play.
Gotta be a better M/L out there.

[SASH]

venting here....ive had 2 BIG plays on this miss state team his year....miss st ml at auburn (1 of the worst teams in division 1 home or away) 2 days ago (-165). And miss st -1 i think it was at arkansas. Ive had games where theyve won me money too, but the loses always stick with you longer than the wins. Then they blow like a 20 point lead to lsu. I had no stake in that game. But Im pretty sure alot of bettors have had it up to to there foreheads with these fags up till now. Having said that, ya they could pull some shit out of their ass and cover the 8.5 at home. Am I willing to put any kind of serious money on them doing so? no

[chinoloco212]

venting here....ive had 2 BIG plays on this miss state team his year....miss st ml at auburn (1 of the worst teams in division 1 home or away) 2 days ago (-165). And miss st -1 i think it was at arkansas. Ive had games where theyve won me money too, but the loses always stick with you longer than the wins. Then they blow like a 20 point lead to lsu. I had no stake in that game. But Im pretty sure alot of bettors have had it up to to there foreheads with these fags up till now. Having said that, ya they could pull some shit out of their ass and cover the 8.5 at home. Am I willing to put any kind of serious money on them doing so? no

i think spread is good prolly not ML tho

[SASH]

you think so chino? Not taking a stance either way or coming to anyones defense here, but give me a reason to bet miss st? Who knows, maybe I will bet the game......

[chinoloco212]

there are several reasons why I like this spread, one is for a fact i don't think Kentucky will go undeated in the SEC (this could or could not be the can but I think they struggle cause Miss st will be UP for this game..Miss st has beat West Virginia at home and gave Baylor a hard time show Miss st is tough environment to play in and the crowd will be rowdy which can def effect a very YOUNG kentucky team, another is there is too much value on this game, the line is saying on a neutral court Kentucky is around 11 points better than Miss ST!? i dont think so at all, miss st is pretty talented with the likes of moultrie and bost

[LT Profits]

No because Mississippi State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. I don't think they ever deserved to be ranked. Not that I would be anxious to lay -9 on the road either, but I can't see how MSU could win outright.

[isotopes]

the way mississppi state has been playing this would not be a smart play, Kentucky should win here, not sure if they cover the spread, but huge chance they win outrgith with the way Mississpi State has been playing

[SalvadorC]

I was strongly considering Miss. State for a lot of the same reasons chinoloco212 listed but have some reservations now after reading the article linked below. Stansbury took a shot at a UK scrub (who transferred from MSU) that the coach didn't intend to go public. If the Wildcats are as riled up as their fanbase, it could spell doom for MSU. I'm sure Calipari and his Cats would love nothing more than to have the game in hand so they could play the scrub during garbage time and rub it in Stansbury's face. The line had gotten as low as 8.5 a lot of places but shot back up to 9 everywhere shortly after 9 a.m. CT this morning.

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/ukbeat/2012/02/20/stansbury-on-beckham-the-back-story/

[SalvadorC]

No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats @ Mississippi State Bulldogs

Kentucky's tear through the SEC has it a perfect 12-0 SU in conference play and it is 26-1 SU overall. The Wildcats are 10-15-1 ATS this season, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. They are 6-4 ATS on the road and the total has stayed 'under' in nine of the 10 games. Mississippi State has lost its last three games and four of its last six to fall to 19-8 SU and 6-6 SU in the SEC. The Bulldogs are 11-14 ATS overall and 6-10 ATS at home this season. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and the total has gone 'over' in their last three games against the Wildcats.

Kentucky Wildcats
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Kentucky Wildcats Over / Under Trends
Under is 3-0-1 in Wildcats last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 10-1 in Wildcats last 11 road games.
Under is 10-1 in Wildcats last 11 road games vs. a team
with a winning home record.
Under is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 games as a road favorite.
Under is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.


Mississippi State Bulldogs Trends
Bulldogs are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Over / Under Trends
Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 Tuesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

[balla05]

i took miss st. first half on the +5. Im hoping they can keep it close for the half, then get out scored by 12 in the second half.

[MeatWad]

Miss St is getting this elevated number due to their recent form, 3 game losing streak, and Kentucky's continued dominant form. Two weeks ago this spread would have been about half what it is tonight.

Miss St. was 13-2 to start the season, but in 12 str8 SEC games since, they are 6-6. They won their first 5 conference home games, then lost their last one to Georgia 70-68, their second home loss of the season. Clearly they have a distinct homecourt edge at the Hump. I expect them to come out blazing, but it won't be enough against the best team in the country. I do see some value in +9 as I look for Miss St to go all out in the national spotlight on their homecourt with their fans sporting "white out" attire in a place where they seldom lose.

In interviews Miss St doesn't sound like a team throwing in the towel, despite losing 2 big leads in their last 3 games. They have a solid senior backcourt prescence in Bost and 6'8" fr guard Hood, and a SEC double-double leader in Moultrie. Definitely enough talent to utilize their homecourt edge and keep the game close enough at the end. That said, I seldom if ever bet against a team playing as well as UK, the best team in the country. UK was overvalued early in the season but as of late they are playing up to their potential. 4 out of 6 of their SEC road wins were by double digits, although I think their game tonight resembles their 2 close road wins at Vandy and at Tenn, two above average SEC teams with a significant home court edge/presecence. I will likely take Miss St for a small play here at +9.

[georgejung]

dont take it!! miss state has lost three in a row. at lsu (when they were up 20 in first half), at home against georgia (idk wtf went wrong here) and at auburn (idk wtf went wrong here either). Kentucky is going to blow state out. Stats do not matter at this moment, state is going down the drain and kentucky just has way too much talent for state to compete with them.

[chinoloco212]

Miss St is getting this elevated number due to their recent form, 3 game losing streak, and Kentucky's continued dominant form. Two weeks ago this spread would have been about half what it is tonight.

Miss St. was 13-2 to start the season, but in 12 str8 SEC games since, they are 6-6. They won their first 5 conference home games, then lost their last one to Georgia 70-68, their second home loss of the season. Clearly they have a distinct homecourt edge at the Hump. I expect them to come out blazing, but it won't be enough against the best team in the country. I do see some value in +9 as I look for Miss St to go all out in the national spotlight on their homecourt with their fans sporting "white out" attire in a place where they seldom lose.

In interviews Miss St doesn't sound like a team throwing in the towel, despite losing 2 big leads in their last 3 games. They have a solid senior backcourt prescence in Bost and 6'8" fr guard Hood, and a SEC double-double leader in Moultrie. Definitely enough talent to utilize their homecourt edge and keep the game close enough at the end. That said, I seldom if ever bet against a team playing as well as UK, the best team in the country. UK was overvalued early in the season but as of late they are playing up to their potential. 4 out of 6 of their SEC road wins were by double digits, although I think their game tonight resembles their 2 close road wins at Vandy and at Tenn, two above average SEC teams with a significant home court edge/presecence. I will likely take Miss St for a small play here at +9.

i agree here, the only thing thing is that this might be a BIG play for me, i love this spot wayyyyyyyyyyy too much value here

[Ltrain]

Im gonna have to say no. I go to school at Mississippi State and the team/coach chemistry is going down the drain. Im friends with many of the players on the team and they have lost confidence in Stansbury. Kentucky by a large margin

I live in starkville and went to MSU as well. I have to say that I do agree with georgejung here as I, and many others have lost faith in Stansbury. MSU will find a way to lose this game for sure. Allthough, 9 points may be too much to give here.

[Ltrain]

dont take it!! miss state has lost three in a row. at lsu (when they were up 20 in first half), at home against georgia (idk wtf went wrong here) and at auburn (idk wtf went wrong here either). Kentucky is going to blow state out. Stats do not matter at this moment, state is going down the drain and kentucky just has way too much talent for state to compete with them.

Haha, Stansbury is WTF went wrong.... MSU has burned me bad in said games as well, BUT what I have learned following state is that the one time you go against them they will burn you then to. They do it to in football as well.. So, damed if I do, Damed if i dont. I really want to take kentucky here but if I do, MSU will play a great game and burn me yet again.

[Ltrain]

i took miss st. first half on the +5. Im hoping they can keep it close for the half, then get out scored by 12 in the second half.

This might be the best play on this game.... I like it, Good Luck!

[Big Bear]

no coin , r u serious?

[HR Paperstacks]

i took miss st. first half on the +5. Im hoping they can keep it close for the half, then get out scored by 12 in the second half.

This is the bet you want to make if your going to consider taking MSU at all. They are a bad 2nd half team.

[Anderson6129]

Don't see how MSU could as bad as they are.

[thebestthereis]

Indiana beat Kentucky and lost to Minnesota, Kentucky can lose here too.

[CWD]

UNC, Missouri, Kentucky, New Mexico, will one of them fall tonight?

[HR Paperstacks]

Indiana beat Kentucky and lost to Minnesota, Kentucky can lose here too.

Great analysis.

[CWD]

Great analysis.

not as bad as the guy who is friends with the miss st players who have supposedly quit on their coach

[freelife1]

lol

[georgejung]

Haha, Stansbury is WTF went wrong.... MSU has burned me bad in said games as well, BUT what I have learned following state is that the one time you go against them they will burn you then to. They do it to in football as well.. So, damed if I do, Damed if i dont. I really want to take kentucky here but if I do, MSU will play a great game and burn me yet again.

couldnt have explained it better. one main reason i took it is if we can keep it below nine points then its going to be a pretty good game and we might have a chance at winning. but if kentucky gets up early its gonna be a long night

[jjesco425]

as good as kentucky has been playing they are very young and if miss st starts out quick how do they react in the road enviroment....think deff value miss st +9 prob small play

[agharah1]

Ltrain, Georgejung, I feel for you guys about your team, but here's why I think Mississippi State covers tonight.

Yes, Stansbury the enabler has lost this team, but all that means is that they're not going to get up to play for him or the school. However, they most certainly *will* get up for playing on National TV and for the pro scouts, especially Dee Bost who has had 1 foot in the NBA Draft for a long time now. Besides, Kentucky hasn't played many teams with size this year. The 2 most salient examples were Indiana and North Carolina. One of those games they lost, and the other was the closets anyone came to winning @ Rupp this year.

I have similar feelings about Illinois @ Ohio State: Brandon Paul and Myers Leonard won't play for Bruce Webber, but they will play for a potentially higher draft spot.

[HR Paperstacks]

Games between UK/MSU have been very close since Cal took over but this is Calipari's best team yet at UK and this is probably the worst Bulldog team he has faced.

I hope Renardo Sidney plays a lot because Kentucky will be playing a lot of 5 on 4 while that lazy fat fuk is walking up and down the court all night.

[freelife1]

as good as kentucky has been playing they are very young and if miss st starts out quick how do they react in the road enviroment....think deff value miss st +9 prob small play

i agree here with what you said.

[georgejung]

not as bad as the guy who is friends with the miss st players who have supposedly quit on their coach

yeah dude. we will see who is right after the game

[freelife1]

No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats @ Mississippi State Bulldogs

Kentucky's tear through the SEC has it a perfect 12-0 SU in conference play and it is 26-1 SU overall. The Wildcats are 10-15-1 ATS this season, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. They are 6-4 ATS on the road and the total has stayed 'under' in nine of the 10 games. Mississippi State has lost its last three games and four of its last six to fall to 19-8 SU and 6-6 SU in the SEC. The Bulldogs are 11-14 ATS overall and 6-10 ATS at home this season. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and the total has gone 'over' in their last three games against the Wildcats.

Kentucky Wildcats
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern.
Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Kentucky Wildcats Over / Under Trends
Under is 3-0-1 in Wildcats last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 10-1 in Wildcats last 11 road games.
Under is 10-1 in Wildcats last 11 road games vs. a team
with a winning home record.
Under is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 games as a road favorite.
Under is 8-2 in Wildcats last 10 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.


Mississippi State Bulldogs Trends
Bulldogs are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Over / Under Trends
Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 Tuesday games.
Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Yea vegas wrote this or knows this but answer this..

How much cushion (of just these trends alone) was considered into the final line.

[sushikillah]

Miss St 1st Half +5

[jjesco425]

as good as kentucky has been playing they are very young and if miss st starts out quick how do they react in the road enviroment....think deff value miss st +9 prob small play

well we will fid out